2024 Arnold Palmer Invitational Data-Driven Picks for Bay Hill

We finally get a course here for the 2024 Arnold Palmer Invitational at Bay Hill Club & Lodge that hopefully tests players after the slew of birdie-fest tracks recently.

Only six of the 18 holes feature a Birdie or Better Percentage greater than 17.5%, which means salvaging par is the name of the game when taking on two-thirds of the course. The thick rough at Bay Hill adds an extra layer of challenge since most approaches will lack the apex and spin needed to hold these fiery greens. We see that as one of the reasons the field experiences a 6.0% increase from 200+ yards over a standard track on Tour.

The softer conditions might generate marginally easier scoring than we have become accustomed to in the past, but there is a reason Arnie's palace typically delivers the goods on these leaderboards. Major championship-style golf always produces major championship-quality names at the top. We get that mix smoothly blended together here like iced tea and lemonade.

Yes, I finally figured out what goes into an Arnold Palmer drink for those who have heard me on podcasts this week!

If you haven't already, you can find me on Twitter (@TeeOffSports). There, I provide a link to my pre-tournament model, a powerful and interactive data spreadsheet that allows user input to create custom golf rankings. That sheet is released every Monday, so be sure to check it out and construct your own numbers from my database of information.

2024 Arnold Palmer Data-Driven Picks

Every Monday, I take an aggregated total from a handful of books I respect and form a median outright price. None of that suggests you wouldn't be able to find better prices if you shopped around, but that is a total I use to compare against a golfer's outright odds movements.

Those returns indicate where the square versus sharp money has entered the market and shows potential DFS value for those looking to round out their player pool. Let's dive into some of the shifts in the market and see how they line up with the outright bets I discussed on the Links + Locks Arnold Palmer Invitational Betting Preview podcast.

2024 Arnold Palmer Invitational Biggest Market Movers

We do this every week when trying to find sharp versus square movement. More often than not, the activity from the public ends up in a direction that falters for all bettors placing wagers on those golfers to win the event.

My answer here doesn't derive thoughts from within my model. I would have a stronger or weaker stance for some of these players than others, but I actually thought most of the action here equated to sharp money shifting these totals.

Names like Byeong Hun An, Matthew Fitzpatrick, Corey Conners, Cameron Young, Tommy Fleetwood and Ludvig Aberg all found themselves dropping in odds at the more astute locations in the space. That factor got doubled down on Fleetwood, Aberg, Conners and Fitzpatrick, four options who have seen significant shifts across the board in any matchup you can find in the space.

You might be able to find a book or two that have been slow to move, but I would consider those four names some of your better DFS options since they are massively favored over their counterparts (that also coincides with the answer in my model). 

On the flip side of that answer, I had my concerns with some of the totals from Jason Day, Min Woo Lee and Harris English. My math thought an option like Day was a better head-to-head target than pure upside play, while names like Lee and English were experiencing this public onslaught of support that wasn't being returned when diving into their movement trajectory at the sharper locations.

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For reference sake, here are the most overrated commodities inside of my model at this moment. You are going to see a lot of similar answers:

2024 Arnold Palmer Outright Picks

I continue to be under this belief that while we are getting a lot of 100/1 winners during these contests, I don't know how outlandish most of these names have truly been when you dive into their profiles.

Outside of my model picking a random/incorrect spot to hate Nick Taylor in Phoenix or the definite outlier wins from Grayson Murray and Nick Dunlap, it has still been a slew of better win equity golfers taking down the title during these events.

It doesn't mean I have successfully landed on all those names when picking an outright card since we can't choose everyone when constructing a card, but I am also not looking at these tournaments as ludicrous results that have come completely out of left field.

The most significant question that has stemmed from all of that has been why more of the elite names aren't capturing these titles. I think that is a fair point that might merge a combination of easier scoring tracks and the overall removal of some talent at the top, but it is hard to look at Bay Hill and not quickly realize the skills that find success here are very in line with that of major championship winners.

My model projected a ton of win equity from the mix of Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy, Viktor Hovland and Ludvig Aberg. These were golfers who excelled in various aspects of my data, including six of the seven key categories featuring one of those names leading the pack.

The problem with any of those routes is that it will put us in a position where our exposure is limited since we don't want to stack a card with too many units in play. Maybe a Hovland/Aberg stance would have been better when diving into the draft we have gotten for each of those spots at particular shops, but I decided to roll with Scottie Scheffler at +700.

There are very few courses in the world where Scheffler's lack of putting acumen receives a bigger boost than it does here at Bay Hill. The reason for that answer derives from the venues hard-scoring conditions and increased capacity for hitting a ton of greens in regulation.

Essentially, fewer birdies equals fewer putts needed to be made to find high-end success. Additionally, perhaps a putter change to a mallet and a shift to his native Bermudagrass will help him on the greens this week.

While I understand the frustration of those who don't want to go anywhere near the top of the board and don't want to do it with Scheffler at these prices, my counterargument would be that not all courses are made the same, which includes the fact that we aren't forced to bet Scheffler each time he lands in this 7-1 range.

My Model's Top Projected Win Equity Choices

1. Scottie Scheffler
2. Rory McIlroy
3. Viktor Hovland

I included Viktor Hovland to show my slight difference from the market when it came to projected win equity.

Best Values To Consider At New Price (Not In Order Of Perceived Edge)

I've given out Nicolai Højgaard enough times this week on podcasts and articles as my favorite value, so consider this my official add of the youngster on my card.

While the numbers have some concerns, I do want to note that all it took was three minor tweaks of the data to get him to land as a top-15 Expected Win Equity option. The downside matters for obvious reasons, but the ceiling is worth a shot at 90-1.