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2022 PGA Championship: 4 Expert Outright Picks for Matt Fitzpatrick, Max Homa, More

2022 PGA Championship: 4 Expert Outright Picks for Matt Fitzpatrick, Max Homa, More article feature image

Tim Nwachukwu/Getty Images. Pictured: Matt Fitzpatrick.

Click arrow to expand 2022 PGA Championship odds via PointsBet

2022 PGA Championship Odds

Golfer Odds
Scottie Scheffler +1200
Jon Rahm +1300
Justin Thomas +1400
Rory McIlroy +1600
Jordan Spieth +1700
Collin Morikawa +2000
Patrick Cantlay +2200
Cameron Smith +2200
Dustin Johnson +2500
Hideki Matsuyama +2500
Viktor Hovland +2500
Xander Schauffele +2500
Shane Lowry +3000
Will Zalatoris +3300
Brooks Koepka +4000
Joaquin Niemann +4000
Sam Burns +4500
Corey Conners +5000
Daniel Berger +5000
Matthew Fitzpatrick +5000
Tony Finau +5000
Max Homa +6000
Louis Oosthuizen +6600
Tyrrell Hatton +6600
Adam Scott +7000
Jason Day +7000
Tiger Woods +7000
Tommy Fleetwood +7000
Cameron Young +8000
Billy Horschel +9000
Bryson DeChambeau +9000
Keegan Bradley +9000
Abraham Ancer +10000
Jason Kokrak +10000
Russell Henley +10000
Seamus Power +10000
Talor Gooch +10000
Cameron Champ +12500
Christiaan Bezuidenhout +12500
Gary Woodland +12500
Harold Varner III +12500
Justin Rose +12500
Marc Leishman +12500
Maverick McNealy +12500
Patrick Reed +12500
Sebastian Munoz +12500
Sergio Garcia +12500
Thomas Pieters +12500
Webb Simpson +12500
Aaron Wise +15000
Alexander Noren +15000
Davis Riley +15000
Matt Kuchar +15000
Mito Guillermo Pereira +15000
Robert MacIntyre +15000
Si Woo Kim +15000
Matthew Wolff +17500
Rickie Fowler +17500
Tom Hoge +17500
Adam Hadwin +20000
Brian Harman +20000
Bubba Watson +20000
Charl Schwartzel +20000
Chris Kirk +20000
Erik Van Rooyen +20000
Ian Poulter +20000
Jhonattan Vegas +20000
Keith Mitchell +20000
Kevin Kisner +20000
Kevin Na +20000
Kyoung-Hoon Lee +20000
Luke List +20000
Matt Jones +20000
Ryan Palmer +20000
Sepp Straka +20000
Joel Dahmen +20000
Anirban Lahiri +25000
Bernd Wiesberger +25000
Cameron Davis +25000
J. J. Spaun +25000
Joo-Hyung Kim +25000
Lanto Griffin +25000
Russell Knox +25000
Sam Horsfield +25000
Troy Merritt +25000
Branden Grace +30000
Brendan Steele +30000
Francesco Molinari +30000
Justin Harding +30000
Laurie Canter +30000
Lee Westwood +30000
Min Woo Lee +30000
Pablo Larrazabal +30000
Ryan Fox +30000
Stewart Cink +30000
Scott Stallings +30000
Cameron Tringale +35000
Carlos Ortiz +35000
Lucas Herbert +35000
Mackenzie Hughes +35000
Oliver Bekker +35000
Patton Kizzire +35000
Adam Schenk +40000
Adri Arnaus +40000
Chad Ramey +40000
Dean Burmester +40000
Kevin Streelman +40000
Nicolai Hoejgaard +40000
Rikuya Hoshino +40000
Alex Beach +50000
Alex Cejka +50000
Austin Hurt +50000
Beau Hossler +50000
Bio Kim +50000
Brandon Bingaman +50000
Casey Pyne +50000
Chan Kim +50000
Colin Inglis +50000
Danie van Tonder +50000
Dylan Newman +50000
Garrick Higgo +50000
Harry Higgs +50000
Henrik Stenson +50000
Hudson Swafford +50000
Jared Jones +50000
Jason Dufner +50000
Jesse Mueller +50000
Jinichiro Kozuma +50000
John Daly +50000
Kramer Hickok +50000
Kyle Mendoza +50000
Martin Kaymer +50000
Matthew Borchert +50000
Michael Block +50000
Nic Ishee +50000
Padraig Harrington +50000
Paul Dickinson +50000
Rich Beem +50000
Richard Bland +50000
Ryan Brehm +50000
Ryan Vermeer +50000
Ryosuke Kinoshita +50000
Sadom Kaewkanjana +50000
Sean McCarty +50000
Shaun Micheel +50000
Shaun Norris +50000
Shawn Warren +50000
Takumi Kanaya +50000
Tim Feenstra +50000
Tyler Collet +50000
Wyatt Worthington +50000
Yong-Eun Yang +50000
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Not much to report from the Bryon Nelson. All the bets made the cut, but none were ever in contention. Davis Riley gave a brief glimpse of hope that he might backdoor a top five, but cooled off on the back nine and finished 9th.

Now we’re on to the second major of the season with Southern Hills set to host the PGA Championship.

It’s the first time we’ve seen the PGA at this venue in 15 years. The last time it was here Tiger Woods held off Woody Austin and Ernie Els to capture the title.

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The Course

Southern Hills is set to play 7,556 yards for a par 70, about 400 yards longer than when Woods won in 2007.

We’ll see water play a factor on 15 holes, so precision both off the tee and with the irons will be key. Length, as always, will be an edge, but much of that advantage will come into play on the par 5s. Both are set to play well over 600 yards, limiting the amount of players who will legitimately be able to reach in two. The par 4s are fairly short by recent major championship standards with seven set to play under 450 yards and just one was over 500 yards on the initial scorecard.

The weather, mainly the wind, could come into play with gusts above 20 mph fairly common. Early forecasts have late Thursday and early Friday potentially catching the worst of it, but we all know how the weather can fluctuate during the week.

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The Favorites

At the top, we have Scottie Scheffler and Jon Rahm, who opened between +1000 and +1200 at various sportsbooks. Scheffler has four wins in the past three months, while Rahm finally got on the board this season in his last start in Mexico.

In that +1400 to +1800 range, we see Rory McIlroy, Jordan Spieth, Justin Thomas, Collin Morikawa and Dustin Johnson. Spieth will be popular in this range. He’s got the win at Harbour Town and was second at the AT&T Byron Nelson, so the form is there. McIlroy was second at Augusta and followed that up two weeks ago with a fifth-place finish at the Wells Fargo.

However, of that group, this may set up best for Morikawa. He was fifth at Augusta and gained seven shots on approach at Harbour Town. If this ends up playing a little tighter because of the rough, creek and wind, he’s the elite guy who would fare best in my eyes.

In the +2000s, we have Cameron Smith, Brooks Koepka, Viktor Hovland, Xander Schauffele and Patrick Cantlay. Hovland will be popular after playing college golf in Oklahoma, but with plenty of run off areas around the greens, we’ll see how the short game holds up for him. Schauffele and Cantlay got the win in Zurich and Schauffele followed that up with a hot weekend to finish inside the top 5 at the Byron Nelson.

We haven’t seen Smith in a few weeks since the Zurich, and he hasn’t popped up on the leaderboards since Augusta. However, he and Scheffler are already on this week’s betting card, along with Shane Lowry, at much larger numbers. I wouldn’t recommend them at the current prices.

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The Mid-Tier

I’ll open here with Max Homa at +6600 on BetMGM. He was added to my card at +9000 when he got into contention at Wells Fargo, but I still like him here. The ball striking has been dialed in for a few months now. He gained 10 strokes in his win two weeks ago. He’s got five other finishes inside the top 20 in 2022 and picked up a win during the fall, as well.

With three victories now in the past 15 months, Homa is becoming one of the better players in the game when he gets near the top of the leaderboard. We haven’t seen him do it yet in a field of this caliber, but he’s won at Riviera and Quail Hollow, which have held majors in the past. That shows that Homa is capable of getting it done at these kinds of venues.

We’ll also go to Matt Fitzpatrick at +4500. He’s been playing well all season, finishing inside the top 20 in seven on his nine starts in 2022. The better form has been tied to better ball striking. He continues to gain ground off the tee and with approach. Both of those areas used to be slightly above average for him and he would ride his short game. His short game is still solid, but now he ranks inside the top 25 in all four strokes gained categories. He’s become a more well-rounded player and that’s led to strong results.

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The Longshots

I’ve got two names here, but let’s start with Keegan Bradley at +12500 on WynnBet. Anywhere that needs a complete tee-to-green game and where the winning score is likely to land around 10-under, Bradley can be a factor. He’s finished 11th or better in five of his past seven starts, so the form is there. The reason it’s been better is an uptick in the short game. He gains strokes around the green nearly every week now and has been above average with the putter in three of his past five starts.

I’m also going to Davis Riley at 200-1 on WynnBet. This is probably more of a top-20 play, but his form is really good. He was ninth last week and has placed inside the top 10 in four of his past six starts. He’s been riding a hot short game in many of those results, but at the Byron Nelson he was able to gain ground in all four categories — a promising sign for the rookie who has locked up a tour card for next season.

It doesn’t take much of anything for me to bet Riley, but like last week, I think this could be a spot where he plays better than the odds suggest.

With my bets in the months leading up to this event, that pretty much wraps up the outrights for the week. From here, we’ll focus on props when they become available and see if anything else catches our eye.

The PGA Championship Card

  • Matthew Fitzpatrick +4500 (.66 units)
  • Max Homa +6600 (.5 units)
  • Keegan Bradley +12500 (.3 units)
  • Davis Riley +20000 (.1 units)

Total Stake: 1.56 units

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