World Series Props, Picks for Astros vs Phillies Game 5
Bob Levey/Getty Images. Pictured: Noah Syndergaard
- Justin Verlander and Noah Syndergaard will take the mound to start tonight's World Series Game 5.
- Syndergaard isn't expected to last very long in this one, but is there value on his strikeout prop at just 2.5?
- Our analyst breaks down Syndergaard's odds and give out his favorite position player prop as well below.
Noah Syndergaard Over 2.5 Strikeouts (+105)
Odds via DraftKings
Hold your nose, but over 2.5 Ks for Thor is where the value lies.
Houston posted a crooked number Wednesday night, but the box score is misleading. The Astros scored five runs on 10 hits, but half the hits and all the runs were scored in the fifth inning while Nola was wearing down.
Houston posted five hits, 11 strikeouts and zero runs in the other eight innings. Let’s not overvalue the Astros offense yet.
Noah Syndergaard should be able to sneak over this number, even with a minimal pitch count.
He managed three strikeouts over only 35 pitches in his NLDS start against Atlanta. He still has some moderate strikeout stuff, including a slider and changeup with a combined 25% whiff rate.
Syndergaard mainly relies on a sinker now, trying to force soft contact. But that might not be a bad thing for this prop.
Houston ranked 21st in Weighted Sinker Runs Created this season. Zach Eflin is even more sinker-heavy than Thor, and he struck out the side in his eighth-inning appearance last night.
This is mainly a projection play, however. All three models I trust for projections have Syndergaard crushing the 2.5 strikeout total, including:
- The Action Labs Player Props Tool: 4.4 Ks
- BallParkPal’s Pitcher Simulations: 3.0 Ks
- FanGraphs SaberSim Projections: 4.0 Ks
The plus-money price makes this prop a good value bet, too.
Pick: Over 2.5 Ks (+105)
Action Labs Grade: 10/10
Rhys Hoskins Over 0.5 Hits (-140)
Odds via FanDuel
Justin Verlander is just going to throw fastballs. He’s going to throw them more than half the time, and he’ll use either a slider or curveball as his secondary pitch depending on if he’s facing a lefty or a righty.
Rhys Hoskins likes hitting fastballs. He managed a .274 average and slugged over .500 on four-seamers this season, piling up a 46.4% hard-hit rate and a +12 run value.
Hoskins has been crushing it this postseason, too. He’s recorded at least one hit in five of his last six games while tacking on four home runs and seven RBIs.
One of Hoskins’ hits came off Verlander, as Hoskins smacked a 95 mph outside fastball into center field.
Video credit: Baseball Savant
That ball had a 100 mph exit velocity.
Hoskins made contact with two more of Verlander’s fastballs that day, smacking one 288 feet with a 95.2 mph. He just missed the barrel, too.
After an 0-for-4 in a Game 4 where everyone went 0-for-X, Hoskins is due for another hit against a guy he’s hit hard in the past.
BallParkPal’s Player Props Tool sets the fair line for Hoskins over 0.5 hits at -144, meaning we’re getting just enough value to take a shot with the righty today.
Pick: Over 0.5 H (-140)