Mets vs. Giants MLB Odd vs, Preview, Prediction: Can San Francisco Continue Adding to New York’s Woes? (Tuesday, August 17)
Rich Schultz/Getty Images. Pictured: Pete Alonso
Mets vs. Giants Odds
|Over/Under||8.5 (-105 / -115)|
|Time||9:45 p.m. ET|
|Odds as of Tuesday afternoon and via DraftKings.|
In the midst of a four-game losing streak, the Mets will once again aim to turn things around when they take on the Giants in San Francisco as part of a daunting seven-game West Coast road trip. Luckily for New York, they’ll have had a better night’s sleep and should have a better shot at this one, starting Marcus Stroman opposite Logan Webb.
Should this pitching matchup be getting more respect? Let’s have a look at the matchup and see.
Mets Need To Rest, Recover, Rebound
It’s really been four days to forget for the Mets, who were already ravaged by injury and now have slipped to 3.5 games back in the NL East with four consecutive losses to some of the best teams in baseball — the Los Angeles Dodgers and San Francisco Giants. Unfortunately, it’ll be another 10 days before they finally don’t have to play either of those teams again, and if things continue like this the Mets may find themselves in a position from which they can’t recover.
The good news here is that Monday’s game came on an incredibly short turnaround after playing the Dodgers on Sunday night and flying across the country to take on the Giants just hours later. Theoretically, the Mets should look better here with a bit more rest and with jet lag wearing off just a little. While offense has been an issue for New York over the last two weeks with an 80 wRC+, runs weren’t so hard to come by in San Francisco in a 7-5 loss.
Pitching was the issue in that game, and it could very well be an issue on Tuesday. It shouldn’t be on account of Marcus Stroman, who has pitched to a 2.79 ERA in 24 starts this year, but rather the Mets’ bullpen. While this unit has been great for most of the year, it’s pretty taxed at the moment. Mets relievers have pitched 10 1/3 innings over the last two games, with almost every one of New York’s high-leverage arms going on Monday. This could be a dilemma in the event Stroman needs to exit early.
Giants Just Keep On Rolling Along
Offensively, it’s been business as usual for the Giants, who have a 130 wRC+ over the last week after struggling in that regard in the weeks leading up to the last seven days. A .202 ISO inspires confidence, as does a lower 20.5% strikeout rate. Simply put: this team is hitting — and Kris Bryant’s two homers on Monday only stood to add to an already-beefy lineup.
The focus here should be on Webb, who has dazzled in 2021 with a 2.96 ERA and holds excellent peripherals. He hasn’t allowed many home runs at — or hits in general — with just six hits against him in his last two outings, spanning 12 innings.
His Achilles’ heel this year, at times, has been walking too many, and the Mets do hold one of the better walk rates in baseball. Still, that’s not an issue that’s bitten him in quite some time, and the ability to limit barrels should only go to quiet an already-hurting Mets offense.
I also wanted to briefly highlight the Giants’ bullpen, which has been sensational all season with the third-best ERA in the majors and which has posted a 2.96 mark over the last week. This is yet another area where the Giants probably have the edge.
With a taxed bullpen and a pitcher in Stroman who enters with pretty poor peripherals, the deck is stacked against the Mets once again here. Though they did show some fight on Monday with an onslaught of runs, I’m not sure this is the best matchup for the Mets. They probably won’t be afforded the hitter’s counts and walks that Gausman gave them, and even with all the runs on Monday it was really just two big batted ball events which did the damage.
I trust in this staff and generally distrust Stroman along with the Mets’ offense. I will lay the -160 here but won’t take it any higher than -165, at which time I might look to the First Five spread.
Pick: Giants ML (-160)