The San Francisco Giants host the Arizona Diamondbacks on May 12, 2025. First pitch from Oracle Park is scheduled for 9:45 p.m. ET; the game will be broadcast on ARID.
Find my MLB betting preview and Diamondbacks vs Giants prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends, injury reports, and more.
My Diamondbacks vs Giants Prediction
- Diamondbacks vs Giants picks: Under 8 -105 (Caesars)
My Diamondbacks vs Giants best bet is on the under. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Diamondbacks vs Giants Odds
| Diamondbacks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +145 | 8 -105o / -115u | -115 |
| Giants Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -175 | 8 -105o / -115u | -105 |
Diamondbacks vs Giants Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Merrill Kelly (ARI) | Stat | RHP Justin Verlander (SFG) |
|---|---|---|
| 3-2 | W-L | 0-2 |
| 0.3 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.3 |
| 4.09/4.95 | ERA /xERA | 4.50/4.43 |
| 4.28/4.18 | FIP / xFIP | 4.45/4.45 |
| 1.05 | WHIP | 1.31 |
| 11.7% | K-BB% | 11.2% |
| 43.9% | GB% | 37.8% |
| 92 | Stuff+ | 107 |
| 107 | Location+ | 96 |
Doug Ziefel’s Diamondbacks vs Giants Preview
Arizona Diamondbacks Betting Preview: Red-Hot Diamondbacks May Freeze
The Arizona Diamondbacks come into this matchup off a wild weekend series against the Los Angeles Dodgers, as they battled to split the four-game set.
We saw excellent pitching performances and offensive outbursts, but as this series against the Giants commences on Monday at Oracle Park, we'll see the variance settle.
Don't let the Dodgers' slugging this past weekend overshadow this Diamondbacks lineup. They're just outside the top 10 in every major Statcast contact metric, and they put the ball in play a ton, holding the third-lowest whiff rate in baseball.
However, on Monday, their very pitcher-friendly lineup faces a strong Giants pitching staff that will send future Hall of Famer Justin Verlander out to the mound.
Verlander has regressed mightily in his 40s, but he's shown the ability to generate soft contact and has begun to utilize his home park well.
Verlander has become a fly-ball pitcher, and that's a sound strategy in Oracle Park, with its big dimensions and swirling winds knocking down flyballs.
He's been slightly better at home this season and is only showing some positive regression, as he's delivered quality starts in each of his last two outings there.
The biggest concern for Arizona is when Verlander exits, as the Giants' hot start has been spurred by their bullpen holding leads. The Giants have the best bullpen ERA by a decent margin and aren't showing any signs of regression.
Don't be surprised if the Diamondbacks' bats are cooled down on Monday by the bay.
San Francisco Giants Betting Preview: Oracle Park Suits Kelly
On the other side of this matchup, you have a Giants lineup that's already cooled off significantly. San Francisco's lineup is middle-of-the-pack offensively, and its biggest issue isn't consistently making hard contact.
They have the second-lowest hard-hit rate in baseball and the seventh-highest fly-ball rate. Like their opposition, that combination doesn't play well at Oracle Park, as many fly balls hang up for an out, especially if they're not traveling fast.
That's all good news for Diamondbacks starter Merrill Kelly, who's been excellent for all but one start, greatly inflating his counting stats. Kelly pitches to contact and is adept at generating flyballs and groundballs at an above-average rate.
With the Giants' lineup scuffling, look for Kelly to work efficiently and deliver another quality start.
However, it doesn't stop there, as the Diamondbacks' bullpen is due for sizable positive regression.
Diamondbacks vs Giants Prediction, Betting Analysis
The market movement for this total is very telling. It initially went up from 7.5 to 8 with juice, but then got bought back to the point where the consensus total is closer to a flat eight.
This has to do with the bullpens in this matchup and how they're set to thrive at night in this ballpark.
Even if Verlander runs into trouble, the Giants have shown they can hold teams down and extinguish the fire.
Trust these two pitching staff to keep the scoring to a minimum.
Pick: Under 8
