Welcome to Opening Pitch, my daily baseball betting column that features my MLB predictions and expert picks for Monday, May 12.
The goal for Opening Pitch is to highlight top daily projection edges for MLB moneylines and totals, share my favorite bets and props, and provide some betting notes and analysis. For Monday, I preview Brewers vs Guardians, Cardinals vs Phillies, Marlins vs Cubs, Rockies vs Rangers and Angels vs Padres. I also have more picks in my betting card at the end of the article.
My projections for every MLB game on Monday are available in the Action App (on both the PRO Projections tab and the game pages) and our Projections Hub. You can also shop for the best lines on our MLB Odds page.
Here are my MLB predictions and picks for Monday.
Note: A parlay of these picks is not the author's formal recommendation. These are recommended as straight bets that are explained in detail below.
MLB Predictions, Expert Picks — Monday, May 12
Brewers vs. Guardians
| Brewers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +130 | 8 -112o / -108u | -135 |
| Guardians Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -155 | 8 -112o / -108u | +114 |
Freddy Peralta (MIL) vs. Ben Lively (CLE)
The Brewers have a significant starting pitcher edge in this game.
Freddy Peralta has the superior ERA (2.18 vs. 3.46), xERA (2.95 vs. 4.52), xFIP (3.80 vs. 4.80, botERA (4.02 vs. 4.94), K-BB% (18.2% vs. 9%), and Stuff+ rating (103 vs. 83). The only thing to keep an eye on with Peralta is that he's returning from a groin injury.
As for the bullpens, the Guardians' 'pen is slightly more rested; the Brewers' Tyler Alexander, Abner Uribe and Tylor Megill have pitched in back-to-back games. Thus, I like Milwaukee in the first five innings (F5).
The weather expected weather:
- 75 degrees
- 7-8 mph winds out
- rain + humidity
These conditions increase the scoring environment by ~10%; my projection increases from 7.76 on an average day to 8.74 for Monday.
Pick: Brewers F5 Moneyline (-135 to -140); Over 8 (-105 to -118)
Cardinals vs. Phillies
| Cardinals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -135 | 8 -115o / -105u | +154 |
| Phillies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +114 | 8 -115o / -105u | -185 |
Matthew Liberatore (STL) vs. Cristopher Sanchez (PHI)
Matthew Liberatore is in the midst of breakout season. His 3.07 ERA is supported by a 2.78 xERA, 3.02 xFIP (4.31 career), 20% K-BB% (11.6% career), 108 Location+ (98 career), and 3.86 botERA (4.53 career).
Liberatore's key has been a changeup that's neutralized right-handed hitters. He's throwing it at a 17% clip and has yielded a .211 xBA and .247 xwOBA.
- Career: 4.67 xFIP vs. RHH (9.5% K-BB%), 3.51 vs. LHH (16.9% K-BB%)
- 2025: 2.99 xFIP vs. RHH, 3.11 vs. LHH
He's throwing his fastball less often (-10%) but more effectively (.256 xwOBA vs. RHH, down from .403, .409, .392 the last three seasons). And he's using his slider more to finish hitters with two strikes.
Liberatore's been so good that his metrics are actually quite comparable to the Phillies' Cristopher Sanchez.
Sanchez has the higher GB% and better Stuff+ (he has a smaller arsenal with three elite pitches: 114 Sinker, 115 Changeup, 112 Slider), whereas Liberatore has the plus slider (113) and wider arsenal behind it.
Also, are we sleeping on the Cardinals?
They're elite defensively:
- 1st in OAA (+25)
- 4th in Defensive Runs Saved (+22),
- They're positive at every position except catcher
- the Phillies are 21st in OAA and 29th in DRS and only positive at left field
The Cardinals are tied with Phillies in wRC+ (108, 10th); the Cards have a similar K% and BB% (trade half point) and OPS+SLG within a few points.
Pick: Cardinals Moneyline (+160 to +146)
Marlins vs. Cubs
| Marlins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -102 | 8.5 -110o / -110u | +205 |
| Cubs Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -118 | 8.5 -110o / -110u | -250 |
Cal Quantrill (MIA) vs. Colin Rea (CHI)
If you're in a survivor pool, the Cubs are an easy click this week; with six home games against the Marlins and White Sox.
This is a battle between two of the best over teams in the MLB. The Cubs are 24-15-2 to the over this season (18.6% ROI), sitting behind the Mariners (24-13-2) and Marlins (25-14).
This just means we should expect regression for both.
On top of that, there's good under weather (62 degrees, six mph winds in) expected for Wrigley Field on Monday. This has triggered a BetLabs system for Wrigley Unders.
I project near nine runs on a normal day, but I only project 7.86 for Monday.
Pick: Under 8.5 (Play to 8)
Rockies vs. Rangers
| Rockies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 +114 | 8.5 -105o / -115u | +210 |
| Rangers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -135 | 8.5 -105o / -115u | -258 |
Chase Dollander (COL) vs. Tyler Mahle (TEX)
The Rangers are the best under team to date in 2025, posting a 27-13-1 record to the under (+28.9% ROI, up $1,184 for a consistent $100 bettor).
They do have Corey Seager, Wyatt Langford, Joc Pederson and everyone back from injury now, but they're 16-4 to the under at home because they keep the roof closed, which kills hard contact.
Meanwhile, on the flip side, the Rockies are 13-6 to the under away from Coors Field, including posting a 75 wRC+ at home (30th) but a 51 wRC+ on the road.
The shocking numbers don't end there, as their splits are .189/.248/.289 away from Coors Field. They have a 8.8% BB% (17th) and a 25.2% K% (29th) at home, compared to a 6.6% BB% (29th) and 28.4% K% (30th) on the road.
Tyler Mahle is solid, but regression is coming with a 1.48 ERA compared to a 3.8 xERA and 4.1 xFIP.
Meanwhile, if you get Chase Dollander out of Colorado, he can post solid results. In two home starts, he has a 3/1% K-BB% and a 5.73 xFIP. In two away starts, he has a 15.4% K-BB% and a 3.7 xFIP.
Unders should regress for these teams, but road Dollander is the Rockies' only effective pitcher.
Update: With the roof open in Arlington tonight, I adjusted my total from 8 to 8.25 runs and lowered my price target from -110 to +100.
Pick: Under 8.5 (+104 to +100)
Angels vs. Padres
| Angels Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -110 | 7 -120o / 100u | +195 |
| Padres Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -110 | 7 -120o / 100u | -238 |
Yusei Kikuchi (LAA) vs. Michael King (SD)
Yusei Kikuchi is struggling with smaller strike zone — his BB% is 10.8% this season, compared to 6% in 2024 and 6.9% in 2023.
His velocity dipped down from 95.5 to 94.2 through April, but he's back up to 95 mph in May.
His strikeout rate is up to 61% and his swinging strike rate sits at 9.2%. In April, those stats stood at 57.4% and 8%, respectively.
Meanwhile, his 93 Stuff+ and 3.74 botERA in April has tracked differently so far in May (99 Stuff+, 2.84 botERA).
The Angels are in their better split, while the Padres are in their lesser split.
The Angels have a 90 wRC+ against right-handed pitching, compared to a 51 wRC+ against left-handers.
On the flip side, the Padres have a 120 wRC+ versus righties (fifth) and a 97 wRC+ versus lefties (14th).
I have the Angels projected at +160, giving us good value as low as +173.
Pick: Angels ML (+185 to +173)
Sean Zerillo's MLB Picks and Predictions for Monday, May 12
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- Cardinals Moneyline +160 to +146
- Royals Moneyline +102 to -104
- Angels Moneyline +185 to +173
- Brewers F5 ML (-135) flat to -140
- MIL/CLE Over 8 (-105 to -118)
- MIA/CHC Under 8.5 (-110) to Under 8 (-105)
- COL/TEX Under 8.5 (+104 to +100)
