The Cleveland Guardians host the Milwaukee Brewers on May 12, 2025. First pitch from Progressive Field is scheduled for 6:10 p.m. ET; the game will be broadcast on CLEG.
After an ugly showing on Sunday night, the Guardians return to action against the Milwaukee Brewers, who snuck out a win versus the Rays yesterday. The Guardians and Brewers each sit in second place in their respective divisions.
Find my MLB betting preview and Brewers vs Guardians prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends, injury reports and more.
My Brewers vs Guardians Prediction
- Brewers vs Guardians pick: Brewers ML -130 (Play to -150)
My Brewers vs Guardians best bet is on Brewers moneyline. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Brewers vs Guardians Odds
| Brewers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +125 | 8 -105o / -115u | -140 |
| Guardians Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -155 | 8 -105o / -115u | +115 |
Brewers vs Guardians Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Freddy Peralta (MIL) | Stat | RHP Ben Lively (CLE) |
|---|---|---|
| 4-2 | W-L | 2-2 |
| 1.0 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.3 |
| 2.18/2.90 | ERA /xERA | 3.46/4.52 |
| 3.49/3.70 | FIP / xFIP | 4.58/4.82 |
| 1.04 | WHIP | 1.20 |
| 3.25 | K-BB% | 2.2% |
| 34.8% | GB% | 30.4% |
| 103 | Stuff+ | 83 |
| 98 | Location+ | 105 |
Sean Paul’s Brewers vs Guardians Preview
Cleveland Guardians Betting Preview: A Team Playing Above Its Potential
Cleveland is an interesting team, although I’m not buying stock into it.
While a 23-17 record looks good on paper, the Guardians' -15 run differential tells a different tale. Traditionally, good teams don’t have a negative run differential, and I doubt the Guardians are the exception.
They'll hand the ball to Ben Lively, a reliable innings eater. Lively enters this outing with a 3.46 ERA, but it’s only a matter of time until his ERA begins to mirror his 4.52 xERA and 4.58 FIP.
Lively ranks in the seventh percentile in average exit velocity, fourth in whiff rate, 27th in barrel rate and 23rd in hard-hit rate. It's truly only a matter of time until he turns into a very subpar pitcher.
Making matters worse, Lively is an extreme fly-ball pitcher. So, throwing in the high 80s to low 90s with opponents hitting balls with extreme velocity should lead to more than 1.30 HRs per nine.
On the offensive end, Cleveland has enjoyed the month of May, ranking 13th with a 113 wRC+. However, the offense has been a doormat in the past two games, scoring just one run in two ugly losses to the Phillies.
The Guardians have four hitters with a wRC+ above 150 in May, led by Daniel Schneemann. It shouldn't be a surprise that Jose Ramirez, Steven Kwan and Carlos Santana are raking. Each of the three has lengthy pedigrees of being well above league-average bats.
On the flip side, names like Schnemann, Angel Martinez and Gabriel Arias are posting strong numbers, helping the Guardians' offense reach a higher level.
Do the Guardians actually have a good offense, or is the three-game series against the Nationals skewing things? Maybe a bit of both. Washington's pitching staff is shaky, and Cleveland scored 8-10 runs in all three games.
Milwaukee Brewers Betting Preview: Back Peralta's Filthy Stuff
While Lively isn't a big "stuff" pitcher, Brewers starter Freddy Peralta is filthy. Peralta has pitched like an NL Cy Young contender, posting a 2.18 ERA through 45 innings and eight starts.
He has a K/9 below 10 for the first time since an injury-riddled 2022 season. But he's also dropped his BB/9 to 2.98 and his HR/9 to 0.99.
Peralta's underlying metrics aren't as pretty as his ERA, though. He has a 2.95 xERA with a much worse 3.49 FIP and 3.78 xFIP.
He ranks in the 75th percentile or better in every hard-hit category, so I think he's more likely to maintain an ERA in the high two's to low three's than high three's, as his FIP indicates.
Hopefully, he won't have any nagging groin issues that halt his start. He last pitched on May 4, eight days ago, due to a groin issue.
The Brewers' offense ranks last with a 48 wRC+ in May. The troubling part is Milwaukee is sitting fourth-to-last with a 24% strikeout rate and fifth with just six home runs.
If almost an entire lineup has a below-average wRC+ for 10 games, it'll typically lead to ugly numbers. The only two hitters with a wRC+ above 100 in that span are Rhys Hoskins and Brice Turang.
It's hard for Milwaukee's offense to be worse, so maybe facing a pitcher due for extreme regression is the medicine needed to get on track.
Brewers vs Guardians Prediction, Betting Analysis
I'll take the slight road favorite due to the huge pitching advantage. There's no question which team is better offensively, but Peralta has the stuff to limit the Guardians' offense through six or seven innings.
If Cleveland can push Lively through five or six full innings without giving up three runs, that feels like a win for them.
I'll rely on the ace here.
Pick: Brewers ML -130 (Play to -150)
Moneyline
As mentioned, I like the Brewers and their ace on the mound here.
Run Line (Spread)
I have no play on the spread for this game.
Over/Under
I'm not interested in the total.
