Red Sox vs. Orioles MLB Betting Odds & Pick: Expect Boston To Put Up Runs (Monday, May 10)
Billie Weiss/Boston Red Sox/Getty Images. J.D. Martinez.
- To everyone's surprise, Baltimore beat Boston three times in a row to start the year.
- Since then, the Red Sox have been the team to beat in the AL East and have one of the best lineups in baseball.
- Mike Ianniello explains why he's backing a big night from Boston hitters below.
Red Sox vs. Orioles Odds
|Red Sox Odds||-140|
|Over/Under||9 (-115 / -105)|
|Time||7:05 p.m. ET|
The Boston Red Sox and Baltimore Orioles will wrap up a four-game series at Camden Yards on Monday might, with the Red Sox looking to complete the sweep.
After dropping the first three games of the season to the Orioles, the Red Sox have now taken six straight games against Baltimore, outscoring them 48-27 over those six games.
Boston has bounced back from a disastrous 2020 season, and currently holds the best record in baseball at 22-13 and a +36 run differential.
Boston Red Sox
The 10-year MLB veteran Martín Pérez will make his seventh start of the season for the Red Sox. He has been solid on this season with 4.40 ERA and 3.28 FIP but has yet to earn a win.
With at least six strikeouts in his last two starts, Pérez currently has a 8.79 K/9 rate and 21.4 K%, both of which are the highest of his career. His velocity is up, his HardHit% is down, and his sinker has been fantastic this season.
The Boston bats have been the best in the league to this point. The Red Sox lead the league in every major offensive category. They are tops in runs per game, batting average, OPS, wOBA and wRC+.
The story of the season has been the bounce back of designated hitter J.D. Martinez. After a horrible 2020 season, the slugger is batting .333 and is second in the league with a .456 wOBA and 1.075 OPS. He leads the league with 10 home runs and 31 RBIs this season.
Shortstop Xander Bogaerts is batting .349 and leads the league with 45 hits on the season. Both Martinez and Bogaerts have crushed right-handed pitchers like the one they will face Monday night.
Already on his third team in six seasons, Jorge López has never finished a season with an ERA below 5.00 as a starter. He has an ERA of 6.49 this season and a FIP of 6.14 in six starts and has yet to last more than five innings.
López has a BB/9 over 3.76 and has surrendered seven home runs. He throws his curveball 23.8% of the time, and teams are batting .533 with a .678 wOBA against it this year.
In his start against the Red Sox on April 11, López lasted just four innings and allowed seven runs and a pair of home runs.
The Baltimore offense has actually been better than most people expected, but is still a far cry from good. They rank 20th in batting average, 26th in OPS and 23rd in wRC+.
Cedric Mullins has been a pleasant surprise for the Orioles this season. The centerfielder is batting .313 this season with a .384 wOBA and 151 wRC+. Beyond Mullins though, the O’s have not gotten consistent play from much of their lineup.
Red Sox-Orioles Pick
The Red Sox have dominated against the Orioles in their recent matchups and now will face the Baltimore starting pitcher with the worst ERA on the season.
Boston has had the best offense in the league and has been even better against right-handed pitching. The Sox shelled López in his last start, and I expect them to do the same on Monday night.
The Red Sox have averaged 5.89 runs per game against Baltimore this season and 8.0 runs in the last six meetings. They have scored at least five runs in five of the last six games against the Orioles and in seven of their last 10 games overall.
Pick: Red Sox Team Total over 5 (-105) (Play over 4.5 to -130 or over 5 to -115)