MLB Odds, Picks & Predictions For Saturday: Braves vs. Mets & Giants vs. Dodgers (May 29)
Justin Edmonds/Getty Images. Pictured: Giants SP Logan Webb
MLB Odds & Picks
Braves vs. Mets
Brad Cunningham: Ian Anderson has taken over as the Braves ace this season with Mike Soroka on the sidelines.
The 23-year-old Anderson has been dicing up opposing hitters, posting a 3.89 xERA and 3.27 xFIP through his first nine starts of 2021. His arsenal starts with a really nice fastball that can top out at 96 mph with good downhill movement. He then has a power curve that is a really solid pitch for him.
Where Anderson really excels, though, is with his changeup. The pitch has been almost un-hittable so far in his career. He’s allowed only a .198 average and .212 wOBA to opponents this season and produced a 40.4% whiff rate. The Mets have been struggling vs. changeups this season, ranking 25th in baseball, so Anderson will be able to unleash that pitch with a lot of success — especially with most of the Mets lineup on the IL.
Walker has been a fantastic surprise for the Mets this season, posting a 2.05 ERA, but his xERA and xFIP are both around 4.00, so he’s due for some negative regression. However, his fastball and slider have been shutting opposing hitters down, as he’s allowed a total of 12 hits combined on both pitches on over 360 pitches this season.
With these two stellar starting pitchers on the mound, this game should be really low scoring. Not to mention that its going to be a chilly 51 degrees in New York and the winds are blowing 14 mph straight in from right field.
I only have 5.85 runs projected for this game, so there’s some value on Under 6.5 runs at +100. I would play it up to -110.
Giants vs. Dodgers
Matt Trebby: This is a big line for a big-name pitcher who is thriving this season. Julio Urias is finally a full-time member of the Dodgers’ rotation and has a 3.03 ERA and 3.09 xFIP through 10 starts. The left-hander is averaging more than six innings per outing and gives Los Angeles the four-headed monster the rest of baseball fears between him, Clayton Kershaw, Trevor Bauer and Walker Buehler.
This is a huge number, though, and Giants starter Logan Webb has been pretty good himself. In 44 innings, he has a 4.09 ERA and 3.08 xFIP, which indicates slightly better results are in store. Webb is coming back from injury in this start, so the Giants would likely love to get five innings from him before turning it over to a relatively solid bullpen.
San Francisco’s lineup is 11th in baseball in OPS against lefties this season and after just missing out on the playoffs last season, the Giants look like they’re going to provide real competition to the Dodgers and Padres out west.
Urias is the superior starter, but Webb is going to be able to keep the Giants in this game. Getting them at +165 — coming off an extra-inning win on Friday night — is good value for bettors.