After a successful Tuesday in the MLB home run props market, I'm back at it for Wednesday, May 7, with more HR picks.
I'm targeting four players today from Mariners vs. Athletics and Blue Jays vs. Angels — Julio Rodriguez, Brent Rooker, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., and Logan O'Hoppe.
Continue below for my MLB home run prop picks and parlay for Wednesday.
MLB Home Run Props, Picks, Odds Today — 5/7
| Time (ET) | Player Prop |
|---|---|
| 3:35 p.m. | |
| 3:35 p.m. | |
| 9:38 p.m. | |
| 9:38 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | |
MLB Home Run Picks, Odds for May 7
Brent Rooker Home Run (+500)
vs. Mariners (SP: RHP Bryan Woo)
Brent Rooker's matchup against Mariners right-hander Bryan Woo isn't good, but he's only a slightly below-average matchup for righty power.
Sutter Health Park is one of the best in the league for home runs, and the weather isn't bad, with temperatures in the mid-70s and wind blowing out at 6 mph.
Rooker is one of the best HR hitters in the league, and getting him near +500 in nearly any matchup is a misprice.
I have the true odds here around +400, making this a great bet.
Julio Rodriguez Home Run (+450)
at Athletics (SP: RHP Gunnar Hoglund)
Julio Rodriguez is in another great spot today going up against A's right-hander Gunnar Hoglund.
We don't have a huge sample size on Hoglund in the majors, but he grades out as a well above average matchup for righty power. He's a pitcher with close to neutral splits and a well above average fly-ball rate.
Hoglund was great in his first outing, but I'm not putting too much faith in that.
Rodriguez is a good power bat and gets a massive ballpark upgrade at Sutter Health Park.
I have the true odds on Rodriguez around +375.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Home Run (+500)
at Angels (SP: LHP Yusei Kikuchi)
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has been a bit of a disappointment this season with just four home runs in 35 games, but the matchup is too good to overlook today.
Angels left-hander Yusei Kikuchi is one of the best matchups in the league for right-handed hitters, giving up 1.65 HR/9 in his career to righties to go along with above-average fly-ball and hard-contact numbers.
Kikuchi hasn't had the same control this season as he has in the past and he has been even worse this season with a 1.84 HR/9.
Guerrero still has has good underlying numbers and is due for some positive regression.
I have the true odds around +400 tonight.
Logan O'Hoppe Home Run (+500)
vs. Blue Jays (SP: RHP Jose Berrios)
I prefer to target left-handed hitters against Blue Jays right-hander Jose Berrios, but Logan O'Hoppe's underlying numbers have been far too good this season to not bet at this number.
O'Hoppe has close to a 20% barrel rate and has over a 50% hard-contact rate — both of those marks are elite.
The matchup overall is an average one against Berrios, who has allowed just over a 1 HR/9 to righties in his career, but has been much worse in recent years.
I have the true odds on O'Hoppe around +425.
