The New York Yankees (20-16) host the San Diego Padres (23-12) on Wednesday night at Yankee Stadium. First pitch is set for 7:05 p.m. ET; the game will be broadcast on MLB Network and Amazon Prime Video.
The Padres and Yankees will play the rubber match of a three-game set on Wednesday when Dylan Cease (5.61 ERA, 33 2/3 IP) takes on Max Fried (1.01 ERA, 44 2/3 IP). The Yankees enter Wednesday as -182 moneyline favorites while the Padres are +155 underdogs; the game total is 8.
Find my Yankees vs Padres prediction and pick for Wednesday below, plus the latest MLB lines, probable pitchers, betting trends and more.
Padres vs Yankees Prediction, Moneyline Pick
- Padres vs Yankees Picks: Padres Moneyline (+150, BetMGM | Play to +140)
My Padres vs Yankees best bet is the Padres moneyline. Check our live MLB odds page to find the best odds.
Padres vs Yankees Odds, Spread, Over/Under
| San Diego Padres Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -141 | 8 -107o / -113u | +155 |
| New York Yankees Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +117 | 8 -107o / -113u | -182 |
- Padres vs Yankees Moneyline: Padres +155, Yankees -182
- Padres vs Yankees Total: 8 (-107o / -113u)
- Padres vs Yankees Run Line: Padres +1.5 (-141), Yankees -1.5 (+117)
Padres vs Yankees Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Dylan Cease (SDP) | Stat | LHP Max Fried (NYY) |
|---|---|---|
| 1-2 | W-L | 6-0 |
| 0.8 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 1.1 |
| 5.61 / 4.24 | ERA /xERA | 1.01 / 3.28 |
| 3.35 / 4.05 | FIP / xFIP | 2.93 / 3.74 |
| 1.60 | WHIP | 0.94 |
| 15.6% | K-BB% | 15.5% |
| 33.3% | GB% | 52% |
| 107 | Stuff+ | 107 |
| 101 | Location+ | 99 |
Padres vs Yankees Preview, Wednesday Prediction
Padres Betting Preview
It's been an ugly start to the year for Cease, who has posted his worst ERA since his rookie season.
Although aside from a horrific outing versus the Athletics on April 8th in which he allowed nine earned runs across four innings of work, he's not been as awful as his ERA suggests. But he also has been less effective than in years past, with a 4.24 xERA and 4.05 xFIP behind a 25.3% strikeout rate and a 40.4% hard-hit rate allowed.
Cease has stabilized over his last four starts, posting an ERA of 3.79 with a 3.82 FIP. In those outings, his pitch metrics have been solid, as he holds a 106 Stuff+ rating and a 104 Pitching+ rating.
Even after Tuesday's seventh-inning debacle, the Padres still lead MLB in reliever ERA — they were projected as baseball's best bullpen entering the year, and they've lived up to the hype.
Jackson Merrill returned to the lineup on Tuesday, but San Diego's injury situation is still bad, as Jake Cronenworth and several key arms remain on the IL.
The Padres will be in their lesser split versus a left-handed starter in Fried, as they hold a 99 wRC+ against lefties this season, after finishing the 2024 campaign with a wRC+ of 97 versus lefties.
Yankees Betting Preview
With his excellent start to the season, Fried has thrown himself into the AL Cy Young conversation and is currently priced as the third favorite behind Tarik Skubal and Garrett Crochet.
As you would expect from someone sporting a 1.01 ERA, Fried has outperformed his expected marks by a wide margin, as he holds a 3.28 xERA and a 3.74 xFIP. Over his last four outings, he holds a 4.32 xFIP and struck out just 5.93 batters per nine innings.
Still, he has been dominant where it counts with a minuscule 0.66 ERA.
Fried has outperformed his xERA in each of the last five seasons, so it could be realistic for him to continue doing so this year, but not by this kind of margin. His ground-ball rate is down compared to last year, as is his strikeout rate. His Pitching+ rating of 105 is only up a hair year-over-year, as he held a mark of 104 in 2024.
The Yankees currently hold a 124 wRC+ versus right-handed pitching this season, the second-best mark in baseball. They finished the 2024 campaign with the best wRC+ in baseball, and have remained comparably effective as the improved depth of the lineup has helped to account for the loss of Juan Soto thus far.
Padres vs Yankees Prediction, Moneyline Pick
Cease has righted the ship over his last four outings, and his pitch metrics suggest he should be capable of continuing to pitch at a higher level than we saw early on in the year.
With Merrill back, the Padres' lineup looks quite scary again, though they have been less effective than left-handed starters.
Fried looks to be due for significant negative regression moving forward. He's generally been a starter who has outperformed his underlying metrics throughout his career, but his process suggests he is due to come down to earth moving forward.
We're getting a long enough number to buy on the upside of Cease and count on a quality Padres lineup doing some damage off of Fried.
Pick: Padres Moneyline (+150, BetMGM | Play to +140)
Moneyline
As outlined, backing the Padres to win this matchup at +150 is my favorite play from the game.
Run Line (Spread)
I prefer to take the much longer price to back the Padres winning this game at +150 than lay -135 on the run-line, as this could be a relatively volatile spot for Cease.
Over/Under
At the opening total of 7.5, betting the Over looked to provide value, but now that it has moved to 8, I will pass on betting the total.
Padres vs Yankees Betting Trends
Padres vs Yankees Viewing Info: Channel, Start Time, Streaming
| Location: | Yankee Stadium in the Bronx, N.Y. |
| Date: | Wednesday, May 7 |
| Time: | 7:05 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming Options: | Amazon Prime Video; MLB Network |
