For my Wednesday MLB player props, I'll be looking into player props for three starting pitchers: Dylan Cease, Simeon Woods Richardson and Framber Valdez.
Of those three props, I'll be betting two outs recorded plays and one strikeout under.
Let's dive into my MLB player prop picks for Wednesday, May 7.
MLB Prop Picks — Wednesday, May 7
- Framber Valdez Over 17.5 Outs Recorded (-135, DraftKings)
- Dylan Cease Over 15.5 Outs Recorded (+100, DraftKings)
- Simeon Woods Richardson Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-155, DraftKings)
Astros vs Brewers Player Props: Valdez Looks to Keep Rolling
Framber Valdez hasn't quite been the same pitcher we saw in 2024, as his strikeout rate is down, but he's still doing one thing exceedingly well: generating ground balls. Valdez's ground-ball rate is in the 84th percentile, which is why his FIP is nearly a full run lower than his season ERA.
Not only is he due for positive regression, but this matchup against the Brewers is where we'll see it come to fruition.
The Brewers have the second-highest ground-ball rate in the majors, so they play right into what Valdez is trying to do.
Look for the Astros' veteran lefty to have a very efficient and effective outing as he completes six innings of work this afternoon.
Padres vs Yankees Player Props: Cease Eyes Bounce-Back Performance
Next, we get to target another ace due for positive regression in Dylan Cease. Cease's counting stats on the year are largely inflated by one bad outing against the Athletics. However, since then, we haven't seen him work very deep into games.
He's recorded an out in the sixth inning in just two of his seven starts. This is peculiar as he pitched into the sixth inning in 66% of his starts last season.
Remember, he's due for a great outing, as his FIP is nearly two runs lower than his season ERA. Also, the Padres need length out of him after their bullpen imploded during the Yankees' 10-run inning on Tuesday.
While this is a tough assignment, Cease has the track record to dominate, and he should get to work with a longer leash on Wednesday.
Orioles vs Twins Player Props: Woods Richardson in a High-Risk Spot
Lastly, we go from two pitchers who are due to see more success to one that's showing signs of a blow-up outing in Simeon Woods Richardson.
The Twins' young right-hander enters this outing with a 4.03 ERA, but he's fortunate for it to be just that, as he's been one of the hardest-hit pitchers in baseball.
Woods Richardson ranks in the bottom 10 percent in hard-hit rate allowed, barrel rate allowed and ground-ball rate. He allows a ton of hard contact and is facing a Baltimore lineup that generates it consistently, ranking fourth in barrel rate.
The damage the Orioles should do against Woods Richardson on Wednesday will shrink his window to generate strikeouts.
Yes, the Orioles have struck out a ton this season, but with Woods Richardson's tendencies and overall lack of strikeout upside, it's hard to see him getting near this total.
Lay the juice and take the under.
