MLB Props Odds, Picks: 2 Bets for Lucas Giolito and Adrian Houser (Wednesday, August 24)
Daniel Shirey/MLB Photos via Getty Images. Pictured: Adrian Houser #37 of the Milwaukee Brewers.
We had a letdown day yesterday, with both Taijuan Walker and Zach Davies failing to reach their strikeout totals.
However, we’re still back with two more +EV player props today.
Our Action Labs Props Tool grades each prop on a scale from 1-10, and I’ll be sure to include the grade for each of my betting recommendations in my discussions below.
Lucas Giolito Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-141)
|White Sox vs. Orioles||White Sox -118|
|First Pitch||7:05 p.m. ET|
I’ve been fading Lucas Giolito in full force this season, and it’s largely paid off. The former top-tier White Sox starter has pitched to an ERA above 5.30 this season while losing over a tick of velocity on his fastball.
The stats match the eye test, too.
Bregman puts up his 31st double of the year to drive in a pair and the Astros are up 4-0 on Lucas Giolito! pic.twitter.com/81xZvhrfLZ
— Just Baseball (@JustBBMedia) August 18, 2022
However, I think Giolito is a safe bet today.
He is still due for positive regression, as his xERA is just 4.20 and his xFIP is only 3.61. And he hasn’t missed a beat strikeout-wise, holding his K/9 above 10 for the fourth consecutive season.
Giolito has also cashed over 4.5 Ks in 17 of his 22 starts this season, a 77% hit rate that should imply -340 odds to the over. He’s cashed this number in a whopping 41-of-54 starts dating back to the beginning of 2021.
The O’s are a good baseball team and one that has struck out at the sixth-lowest rate in baseball over the past month (20.8%). But they’ve also allowed five of the last seven opposing starting pitchers to cash their strikeout totals.
Plus, Giolito has a history with the Orioles. He faced them twice last season, recording a combined 21 strikeouts over just 12 1/3 innings. He threw 106 pitches in both starts with a CSW rate above 30%.
Our Action Labs Player Props tool projects Giolito for a full seven strikeouts today, while FanGraphs projects him for about 5.8.
Either way, there’s value on over 4.5.
Pick: Over 4.5 Ks (-141)
Action Labs Grade: 10/10
Adrian Houser Over 2.5 Strikeouts (-125)
|Brewers vs. Dodgers||Dodgers -250|
|First Pitch||9 p.m. ET|
I understand these are the Dodgers. Corbin Burnes could only pick up three strikeouts over them Tuesday night. They held Eric Lauer to two strikeouts and destroyed Sandy Alcantara. They’ve posted a 141 wRC+ and a 20.6% strikeout rate against RHPs over the last month.
That being said, this line is ludicrous.
Adrian Houser has cashed over 2.5 strikeouts in 13-of-15 starts this season (87%). He’s done so in 32-of-45 starts dating back to last year (71%). He’s not the most prolific strikeout pitcher, but to set a line akin to the Drew Hutchison and Zack Greinke’s of the world is crazy.
This is an auto-over, and the projections agree.
Our Action Labs Player Props tool projects Houser for a whopping 4.6 strikeouts Wednesday night. FanGraphs SaberSim projects him for 3.8.
I’m not saying Houser will strike out five, or even put together a good start. But the value is clearly on the over with a line this low.
Pick: Over 2.5 Strikeouts (-125)
Action Labs Grade: 10/10
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