MLB Tuesday Forecast: Windy Weather Notes for the Entire Slate

MLB Tuesday Forecast: Windy Weather Notes for the Entire Slate article feature image
Credit:

Jeff Curry-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured; Vince Velasquez.

  • Using the Action Network's betting tools, we've analyzed how wind could impact 13 of tonight's baseball games.

Dodgers (W. Buehler) at Phillies (V. Velasquez)

  • 7:05 p.m. ET
  • O/U: 9.5
  • Wind: Out at 7-8 mph

Citizens Bank Park … king of the wind-out overs! With a 125-80-12 (61%) lifetime record, Citizens has a better win percentage and ROI than Wrigley Field when it comes to betting the over when the wind is blowing out.

Shocking, but true. Also shocking is the fact that sharp action on the under has caused the total to fall from 9.5 to 9 at some books. Will Mother Nature or the sharps prevail in Philly tonight?

Rays (R. Stanek) at Yankees (C. Sabathia)

  • 7:05 p.m. ET
  • O/U: 10
  • Wind: To left at 8-9 mph

Historically, taking the over when the wind is blowing to left at Yankee Stadium has resulted in nearly identical results as when the wind is blowing out. Both conditions have yielded an ROI just north of 8% with almost 13 units won.

However, after opening at 10 this morning, the over/under has dropped to 9.5. I was honestly a bit surprised to see that opener of 10 to begin with, as only six of Tampa’s games this year have had a total in the double digits.

Nationals (A. Voth) at Orioles (A. Wojciechowski)

  • 7:05 p.m. ET
  • O/U: 11.5
  • Wind: To left at 5-6 mph

Though the breeze to left-center and upper 80s temps would suggest perfect hitting conditions, the Weather Rating for this game is just 60, which I found surprising. Regardless, this could spell trouble for the Orioles’ Asher Wojciechowski.

The 30-year-old journeyman could be serving up Woj-Bombs (get it?) in droves tonight, as he’s struggled mightily with the long ball no matter what league he’s pitched in. In 307.1 innings in AAA and the MLB combined since 2017, he’s allowed 63 homers, which equates to a 1.84 HR/9.

Blue Jays (J. Waguespack) at Red Sox (A. Cashner)

  • 7:10 p.m. ET
  • O/U: 11
  • Wind: Out at 7-8 mph

Andrew “Cash Money” Cashner, 2019’s most profitable starter, will be making his Red Sox debut tonight. The ex-Oriole is allowing only about one homer per nine innings this year and has a ground ball rate right around 50%, which will be helpful for tonight’s warm and windy conditions at Fenway.

Tigers (R. Carpenter) at Indians (Z. Plesac)

  • 7:10 p.m. ET
  • O/U: 10.5
  • Wind: Out at 8 mph

More favorable hitting conditions in Cleveland! Like Citizens Bank Park, Progressive Field has also been a great spot for taking the over when the wind is blowing out. Since 2005, the over has a record of 72-52-5 — good for more than 17 units won and an ROI of 13.5%.

Reds (A. DeSclafani) at Cubs (A. Mills)

  • 8:05 p.m. ET
  • O/U: 10.5
  • Wind: Right to left at 5-6 mph

The Windy City is not at its best tonight as there is only a light breeze blowing across the field. We know that taking the over when the wind is blowing out and taking the under when the wind is blowing in is a smart strategy at Wrigley, but how do crosswinds fare?

Well, with winds blowing from right to left or left to right, the under has done very well, cashing at a 56% rate historically. This is especially true with higher wind speeds, but that’s not the case tonight.

Diamondbacks (A. Young) at Rangers (L. Lynn)

  • 8:05 p.m. ET
  • O/U: 10
  • Wind: From right at 11 mph

Don’t let that strong wind from right field scare you away from taking the over in tonight’s D-backs-Rangers game. In fact, when the wind blows in from right field at Globe Life Park in Arlington, which it often does, the over has done exceptionally well.

Historically the over has gone 220-183-26 with the wind blowing from right field, but has gone just a so-so 10-9 this year. The Weather Rating of 85 is second best of the night behind Colorado’s perfect 100.

Mets (S. Matz) at Twins (M. Pineda)

  • 8:10 p.m. ET
  • O/U: 10
  • Wind: From left at 5-6 mph

Up in Minnesota we’ll find another game with wind conditions that may look bad on paper. However, with a Weather Rating of 70, this game actually has some of the best hitting conditions of the night.

Pirates (D. Agrazal) at Cardinals (J. Flaherty)

  • 8:15 p.m. ET
  • O/U: 9
  • Wind: Out at 3-4 mph

With an over/under of just 9, which is pretty low these days, this game is expected to be one of the lower-scoring affairs of the evening despite the wind blowing out. As you can see, it’ll be just a light breeze, but Busch Stadium has been a bad ballpark for betting overs regardless of the conditions.

Overall, the over has hit at just a 46.5% rate since 2005 and an even worse 44.6% rate in more than 100 games with the wind blowing out.

White Sox (D. Cease) at Royals (G. Sparkman)

  • 8:15 p.m. ET
  • O/U: 10.5
  • Wind: To left at 5-6 mph

A few hours west of St. Louis is good old Kansas City, where Spark-Daddy Glenn Sparkman will look to outduel ChiSox prospect Dylan Cease.

Though the game boasts the third-highest Weather Rating of the night behind Colorado and Texas at 72, one must remember the fact that Kauffman Stadium is a big ballpark and not exactly hitter-friendly to begin with.

Giants (D. Pomeranz) at Rockies (P. Lambert)

  • 8:40 p.m. ET
  • O/U: 14.5
  • Wind: To right at 5-6 mph

Oh baby, we have another total of 14+ on our hands. Though thought to be extinct, these have been popping up left and right over the past few weeks.

Between 2005 and 2012, there were two totals of 14+. Then there were zero until June 30, when the Yankees-Red Sox game in London closed at 15. There have since been three more totals of 14 or 14.5, including Peter Lambert’s start against the Astros.

The temperature will start out around 93 degrees and drop into the mid 80s as the game progresses, which, coupled with the favorable winds, combine for a perfect 100 Weather Rating.

Mariners (M. Gonzales) at Athletics (D. Mengden)

  • 10:07 p.m. ET
  • O/U: 9.5
  • Wind: Out at 10-12 mph

We have more winds blowing out … but that is often the case and it honestly doesn’t mean much. While I typically play over/unders based on wind direction and other weather conditions, I basically never do for games played on the West Coast.

Wind blowing out at O.co Coliseum was a rarity for many years, but has become a common occurrence over the past few years. Since the start of the 2017 season, the over has gone just 45-57-4 on such occasions.

Astros (H. Rondon) at Angels (A. Heaney)

  • 10:07 p.m. ET
  • O/U: 10.5
  • Wind: Out at 5-8 mph

The wind is practically always blowing out at Angel Stadium and AT&T Park. Overs with winds blowing out in Anaheim have a -5% ROI with a sample size of nearly 800 games. Like I said, I basically just ignore the wind on the west coast and that is especially true for Angels home games.