Yankees vs Mets Prediction, Subway Series Pick & Odds

Yankees vs Mets Prediction, Subway Series Pick & Odds article feature image
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Pictured: Marcus Stroman. (Credit: Vincent Carchietta-Imagn Images)

Starting soon
Odds Updating Soon
Matchup - 7/04 7:10pm UTCSpreadTotalMoneyline
-1.5+152
o9.5-113
-105
+1.5-178
u9.5-107
-115

The New York Mets (50-38) host the New York Yankees (48-39) on Friday,July 4, 2025. First pitch from Citi Field is scheduled for 3:10 p.m. ET; the game will be broadcast on MLB Network.

The Subway Series is back! The Yankees took full command of the first series in the Bronx, and now the Mets have payback on their minds on the 4th of July.

Continue below for my Subway Series preview and Yankees vs Mets prediction.

Quickslip

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My Yankees vs Mets Prediction, Pick

  • Yankees vs Mets Picks: Yankees Moneyline (play to -120)

My Yankees vs Mets best bet is the Yankees moneyline. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.


Yankees vs Mets Odds, Spread, Over/Under

New York Yankees Logo
Friday, July 4
3:10 p.m. ET
MLB Network
New York Mets Logo
New York Yankees Odds
SpreadOver/UnderMoneyline
+1.5
-186
9.5
-107o / -113u
+109
New York Mets Odds
SpreadOver/UnderMoneyline
-1.5
+151
9.5
-107o / -113u
-132
Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.
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Yankees vs Mets Projected Starting Pitchers

Marcus Stroman (NYY)StatRHP Justin Hagenman (NYM)
1-1W-L0-0
-0.2fWAR (FanGraphs)0.2
8.16/5.88ERA /xERA1.50/2.50
6.58/5.70FIP / xFIP1.42/2.89
1.67WHIP0.83
-1.5%K-BB%21.7%
44.9%GB%50%
91Stuff+97
94Location+115

Yankees vs Mets Subway Preview, Prediction

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Yankees Betting Preview: All Eyes on Stroman

I know Yankees fans weren’t excited for Marcus Stroman’s return from injury. After a spat with the front office in Spring Training, Stroman found his way back in the Yankees rotation due to injuries with Gerrit Cole and Luis Gil.

Stroman pitched poorly in three starts from March to April, which explains his disastrous 8.16 ERA. That number includes the five innings of one-run ball Stroman tossed in his return from the injured list last week.

Moreover, the veteran sinker-baller found himself in trouble with walks early in the year. Right now, Stroman has a 5.65 BB/9, which would exceed his career-high by over two walks. To me, that says Stroman is more a victim of small sample size than him just totally forgetting how to throw strikes.

Backing up Stroman is a bullpen that the Blue Jays just beat up. All the Yankees' big-name arms took their lumps, as Luke Weaver allowed a grand slam, Devin Williams lost a game, as did Mark Leiter Jr.

Despite the rough stretch, Leiter Jr and Williams have a FIP sitting below 3.00, while Weaver’s is a 3.70. All that tells me is brighter days await for this Yankees bullpen.

These Bronx Bombers haven’t done a whole lot of hitting bombs lately. They rank 14th in MLB with 21 home runs since June 15th and 15th with a 105 wRC+. That’s a stark contrast from early in the year when the Yankees were near the top in MLB in most offensive categories.

So, why are the Yankees' offense in a tailspin? The problem is the quartet of Anthony Volpe, Paul Goldschmidt, Austin Wells, and DJ LeMahieu. They’re producing close to nothing at the plate right now and it takes away from having five players with a wRC+ better than 140 in their last 18 games.

Still, the Yankees' offense goes as Aaron Judge does. And he got rid of his brief two-week slump, as he’s hitting .368 with a .947 slugging percentage in his last seven games.


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Mets Betting Preview: Soto Carrying the Load

Paul Blackburn was tabbed as the Mets' starter for the first game in the Subway Series, but he hit the injured list on Thursday. Given how bad Blackburn has pitched, that won't be a real downgrade.

The question now, is who will pitch for the Mets? They already don't have a scheduled starter for Sunday with Frankie Montas due on Saturday. The best bet is a bullpen game with right-hander Justin Hagenman or Austin Warren operating the bulk innings.

Either way, neither is an ideal option. Hagenman has pitched well, allowing just one run in six innings in a Mets uniform. However, Hagenman's disastrous 6.21 ERA in 42 innings at AAA Syracuse tells a different tale.

As for Warren, he's probably the better option here. He tossed a much-needed 2 1/3 innings last week after Griffin Canning suffered a season-ending injury. In the minors, Warren posted a 3.82 ERA in 20 outings with Syracuse and is no stranger to multi-inning outings.

If you're looking for which Mets hitters are performing well right now, the list is fairly brief. Since June 15th, Juan Soto has an absurd 215 wRC+ with a 21% walk rate and Brandon Nimmo has a 139 wRC+. After that? It's underperforming young players in Ronny Mauricio, Mark Vientos, and Brett Baty. And that's how the Mets wind up 27th in wRC+ over a nearly three-week stretch. Soto is incredible, but he can't do it alone.

Plus, Francisco Lindor was in such a bad slump, hitting just .231 in his last 30 games that Carlos Mendoza removed him from the leadoff spot. Of course, Lindor responded with a 3-hit game from the number two hole, but he's been dreadful for a month.


Yankees vs Mets Prediction, Best Bet

None of the Mets pitching options are worth backing here. While I don't love Stroman, I think he's good enough to contain this scuffling Mets lineup, if he can keep his walks in check. The Mets are awful at hitting with runners in scoring position, as are the Yankees, so we'll likely see plenty of ducks left on the pond.

Not only will the Mets bullpen be stretched thin, they probably won't have Edwin Diaz. He tossed 1 1/3 innings on Wednesday and one inning on Thursday. Maybe if Mendoza is desperate enough he trots Diaz out for a third night in a row, but I'd bet he's not an option. That's another huge plus for the Bronx Bombers.

Pick: Yankees ML (play to -120)


Moneyline

I like the Yankees moneyline.


Run Line (Spread)

I have no play on either side of the spread.


Over/Under

I have no bet on the game total.


Yankees vs Mets Betting Trends


Yankees vs Mets Viewing Info: Channel, Start Time, Streaming

Location:Citi Field in Queens, N.Y.
Date:Friday, July 4
Time:3:10 p.m. ET
TV / Streaming Options:MLB Network, YES, SNY

Yankees vs Mets Weather


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About the Author
Sean is a contributor for the Action Network college basketball and baseball verticals, focusing on bringing insightful, in-depth betting analysis. Sean started his writing career talking about college hoops, with a strong focus on mid-major hoops, which he still covers.

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