Twins vs. Orioles Odds & Pick: Betting Value on Minnesota’s Run Line (May 31)

Twins vs. Orioles Odds & Pick: Betting Value on Minnesota’s Run Line (May 31) article feature image
Credit:

Brace Hemmelgarn/Minnesota Twins/Getty Images. Pictured: José Berríos.

  • Minnesota looks to continue its minor resurgence against the lowly Orioles, who have lost 13 straight games.
  • Aside from a few solid bats in its lineup, Baltimore is looking at another wasted season, comfortably in last place in the AL East.
  • Matthew Trebby breaks down where the betting value lies in this matchup and how bettors should fade the Orioles.

Twins vs. Orioles Odds

Twins Odds -160
Orioles Odds +135
Over/Under 8.5
Time Monday, 1:05 p.m. ET
TV ESPN
Odds as of Monday morning and via PointsBet.

Two last-place teams get a national television matchup on Memorial Day, as the Minnesota Twins head to Camden Yards for a matchup with the Baltimore Orioles.

The Twins are better than their 21-30 record indicates. Simply put, nothing has gone right for them this season, whether it’s luck or injuries. Minnesota should be a popular team for bettors moving forward, having won seven of 10 entering this series.

Let’s break down where the betting value lies when the Twins take on Baltimore, which has lost an unsurprising 13 straight games and is 17-36.

Twins Get Reliable Berríos on the Mound in Opener

At this point in his career, José Berríos firmly is what he is: a very good starter who doesn’t look like an ace.

Some of Berríos’ advanced numbers indicate he’s currently enjoying the best season of his career, though. His 3.67 ERA would be the lowest of his career, as would his 3.25 xFIP. His 4.85 xERA does jump out, as well, as the highest of his career.

Berríos’ 10.7 strikeouts per nine innings are a career best, as well, and he’s also walking 0.99 fewer batters per nine.

One thing that could take Berríos to the next level is pitching deeper into games. He averaged at least six innings per start back in 2018 and ’19, and he’s right around 5 2/3 through his first 10 starts this year.

Is he an ace? No, he is not. But any team would take the consistency Berríos provides in a starting rotation.

Minnesota’s offense is picking things up of late, entering Sunday third in MLB in wRC+ since the start of last week. It does help to play the Orioles and Royals in one week when you need your bats to get going, although Minnesota might be disappointed that it scored only 17 runs in its three-game sweep of Baltimore last week.

Minnesota has gotten healthier of late, with Nelson Cruz and Alex Kirilloff back. It also helps that Miguel Sanó has been crushing the ball of late.

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Baltimore Shows No Signs of Life

The Orioles’ rebuild continues.

It would be a surprise if Baltimore did not get the first overall pick in the 2022 draft. The O’s have lost 13 straight games, and aside from John Means’ impressive start to the season and Trey Mancini’s bounce-back season, there isn’t much to get excited about.

Mancini might not last much longer in Baltimore if he keeps hitting like this, as he’d make a nice deadline acquisition for a contender. His 11 home runs and 42 RBIs are impressive, especially the second number given the talent around him.

Freddy Galvis has a weird nine home runs so far this season given his track record, while Cedric Mullins has been a good spark atop the Orioles’ lineup.

Those three, all of whom have an OPS over .800, have Baltimore 22nd in OPS this season at .681. If you’re thinking, “That’s not a very good number,” it isn’t. Just imagine how bad the rest of the lineup must be.

That’s about it, though. If Baltimore is lucky and back in contention in, say, five years, I doubt any of these players are in the lineup.

The starting rotation is full Means and players who are meant to eat innings in hopes of becoming attractive enough to be traded for a prospect or two.

Jorge López put up good numbers in the Brewers’ minor-league system that have never translated into big-league success. His 5.99 career ERA isn’t great, although his 4.68 xFIP says he’s better than that. But not by much.

López is pitching 4 1/2 innings per start this year through 10 appearances. He has a 5.80 ERA but a 4.17 xFIP. The ERA will likely go down, but I wouldn’t bank on it being a significant decrease given the team he plays on.

Twins-Orioles Pick

I don’t usually recommend the run line, but that’s the play here.

During the Orioles’ 13-game losing streak, only two of those defeats have been by one run.

Minnesota has the edge across the board here, and I’m not interested in backing Baltimore until it shows any sign of progress. That means my money won’t be on the Orioles until 2022 at the earliest.

Pick: Twins -1.5 (-110)

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