Yankees vs. Mets Odds, Preview, Prediction: How to Bet Game 1 of the Subway Series (Sept. 10)
Rich Schultz/Getty Images. Pictured: Mets P Tylor Megill
- The Yankees are a short favorite over the Mets as they begin a Subway Series from Citi Field (7:10 p.m. ET, MLB Network).
- The Bronx Bombers' offense has dried up after a scorching hot finish to August, and they now find themselves a game back in the AL Wild Card. The Mets are even further back, and will need a strong weekend to stay in contention.
- Below, Tanner McGrath breaks down Mets-Yankees and explains why he likes a player prop instead of a side or total.
Yankees vs. Mets Odds
|Time||7:10 p.m. ET|
There’s no interleague matchup better than the Subway Series.
However, both New York teams are in free fall. The Yankees have lost six straight and the Mets just lost two of three to the Marlins.
At least the Yankees are still in the second AL Wild Card spot — for now. The Mets have found themselves five games out of the NL East divisional race with only 21 games left to go.
As we enter the final stretch, this series is going to be monumental for both teams. So, who has the edge in this series opener?
Yankees Lineup Struggling Again
It’s very bad timing for the Yankees to suffer a four-game sweep at the hands of the Blue Jays. They’re now just a half-game up on Toronto for the second Wild Card spot and a half-game back of Boston for the top spot.
The Yankees’ lineup tends to run streaky, and they’re on a bad streak. Over the past two weeks, the Yankees have posted just a .653 OPS and a .286 wOBA, with both stats ranking among the bottom six teams in MLB. They’re also striking out at the sixth-highest rate (24.2%).
The same goes for the pitching staff, but particularly the Yankees’ relievers. While New York has one of the best bullpens in baseball, they’ve posted the sixth worst FIP over the past two weeks (5.26). Aroldis Chapman continues to be iffy, as he’s posted a 5.14 ERA and a 6.45 FIP over his last six appearances.
The southpaw Jordan Montgomery will get the start for the Yanks, and he’s been an effective pitcher, posting an ERA+ above 120.
Montgomery is as soft tossing as a pitcher gets, as he throws his changeup, curveball and sinker almost 75% of the time. He’s been effective in his career at suppressing hard contact (87 mph career average exit velocity), but hasn’t forced as many ground balls as I would’ve expected (42.5% career ground ball rate).
Montgomery also, surprisingly, strikes out a lot of batters. He’s averaging almost nine strikeouts per nine innings this season and he’s posted a chase rate that’s among the top 15% of qualified pitchers.
Mets’ Megill Regressing
While it seems like things are bad in Queens, the Mets are still 6-4 over their last 10 games. Also, they continue to play well at home, where they’re now 14 games over .500.
The Mets have been an all-around average team over the past few weeks, although Pete Alonso has been cooking this month. Alonso is working on a nine-game hit streak where he’s posted a .389 BA and a 1.314 OPS, smashing 10 extra-base hits in the process (five doubles, two triples, three home runs).
New York will have rookie Tylor Megill on the mound today. Megill looked like a big find for the Mets at the beginning of the year, posting a 2.04 ERA through his first seven starts. However, his xFIP at the end of July was up at 3.88, so we should’ve seen regression coming.
The regression train has officially arrived. Megill has posted a 6.37 ERA and a 5.40 FIP in his seven starts since August 1, and he’s led the Mets to a 2-5 record in those games.
Megill is your basic four-seam fastball pitcher, throwing it almost 60% of the time. He mixes in a changeup and a slider, and all three pitches have seen relative success. It’s worth noting Megill’s slider has held opponents to just a .221 xwOBA this season.
I don’t see value on either the Yankees as short road favorites (-125), or the Mets as short home underdogs (+105). While the under is interesting, I liked it better before it moved from 8.5 to 7.5.
This game is a pass for me. However, if you need to bet something, Megill over 5.5 strikeouts is interesting.
Megill isn’t necessarily a strikeout machine, but he’s hit this number in half his starts this season, and the Yankees’ offense might provide the push he needs to get over the number. Over the last 30 days and against RHPs, the Yankees have struck out at the fifth-highest rate in MLB (25.7%).
Additionally, our Action Labs Player Props tool has Megill pegged for exactly six strikeouts today, which provides some value on the over number.
Pick: Pass | Tylor Megill over 5.5 strikeouts (-135 on DraftKings)
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