UFC 238 Odds: Does Tony Ferguson Offer Value With Donald ‘Cowboy’ Cerrone Coming Off Limited Rest?

UFC 238 Odds: Does Tony Ferguson Offer Value With Donald ‘Cowboy’ Cerrone Coming Off Limited Rest? article feature image
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Credit: Stephen R. Sylvanie-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: UFC fighter Tony Ferguson (red gloves).

  • Donald "Cowboy" Cerrone is back in action on Saturday at UFC 238 in Chicago after fighting in January.
  • Does the quick turnaround give Tony Ferguson the advantage, and what do the betting odds say?

Donald ‘Cowboy’ Cerrone took his first fight in the UFC all the way back on February 5, 2011 against Paul Kelly at UFC 126. Cowboy won the fight thanks to a second-round submission (rear-naked choke) and began his long ride into the record books.

There’s little debate surrounding Cerrone’s stats as one of the sport’s all-time greats.

  • No. 1 all-time in wins (23)
  • No. 1 all-time in finishes (16)
  • No. 1 all-time in post-fight bonus awards (17)
  • No. 1 all-time in knockdowns landed (20)
  • No. 2 all-time in total bouts (31)
  • No. 4 all-time in significant strikes landed (1,450)

Still, Cowboy hasn’t found a way to secure championship glory to this point. He’s had several attempts, but couldn’t get the job done against Rafael dos Anjos in the UFC nor vs. Benson Henderson (twice) in WEC.

One of the potential road blocks in Cerrone’s quest for gold has been his willingness to take pretty much any fight. Saturday’s matchup at UFC 238 against Tony Ferguson is no exception.

‘El Cucuy’ has won 11 consecutive fights inside the Octagon while regularly rearranging his opponent’s appearance.

Of course, Cerrone is a cold-blooded killer himself and in all likelihood not afraid of any man on this planet.

The larger reason for concern is Cowboy’s general disregard for rest. He’s made a habit of taking fights on incredibly short notice during his UFC career.

  • 0-65 days rest: 7 fights (5-2)
  • 70-100 days rest: 11 fights (9-2)
  • 100+ days rest: 13 fights (9-4)

Cowboy hasn’t exactly been better with more rest; he’s lost all three of his career fights with over 150 days off against Anthony Pettis (168 days between fights), Robbie Lawler (182) and Rafael dos Anjos (210).

Still, we’ve also seen him struggle mightily against the likes of Jorge Masvidal (49) and Nate Diaz (62) after hardly having time to get through an entire fight camp.

Saturday’s fight against Ferguson will be just 35 days removed from Cerrone’s five-round war against Al Iaquinta, which Cowboy won impressively via unanimous decision.

It’s tough to assume Cerrone will be fully recovered from that battle with the second-shortest rest of his UFC career when we also consider he’s facing a potentially tough weight cut to 155 pounds. We don’t have much evidence of Cowboy struggling to make the limit, but he fought at 170 pounds from February 2016-November 2018.

Cerrone is one of the more technical fighters that Ferguson will have faced during his career. Any fight with Cowboy is always just one headkick away from being finished. Still, one of the UFC’s most-entertaining fighters could be (once again) biting off a bit more than he can chew against one of the division’s elites.

Ferguson makes a worrisome habit of getting clipped in his fights, but he also possesses arguably the single best gas tank in all of mixed martial arts. I like El Cucuy to turn the pressure up and get the victory in the people’s main event.

The pick: Tony Ferguson -150

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