UFC Fight Night 150 Undercard Betting Preview: Alex Oliveira vs. Mike Perry and a Best Bet

Apr 27, 2019 08:00 PM EDT
Credit:

Tom Szczerbowski-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: UFC fighter Alex Oliveira (red gloves).

  • The main card of UFC on ESPN+ 8 features a welterweight bout between "Cowboy" Alex Oliveira (-180) and "Platinum" Mike Perry (+150)
  • Undercard fights with betting value include "Hands of Stone" John Lineker (-145) vs. Cory Sandhagen (+120) and Court "The Crusher" McGee (-170) vs. Dhiego Lima (+140).

UFC Fight Night 150 undercard betting preview

  • Early Preliminary Card: 5:30 p.m. ET on ESPN2
  • Preliminary Card start time: 7:00 p.m. ET on ESPN
  • Main Card start time: 9:00 p.m. ET on ESPN+

>> Start your ESPN+ free trial to watch every UFC Fight Night 150 bout.


As has been the case with the UFC’s recent ESPN+ efforts, Saturday’s card is short on name value, but holds its own in terms of intriguing bouts and betting value.

Let’s take a closer a look at the undercard to see where the best betting value can be found:

“Cowboy” Alex Oliveira (-180) vs. “Platinum” Mike Perry (+150)

Originally scheduled to face Jingliang Li, “Cowboy” Alex Oliveira (20-6-1) is coming off a brutal submission loss to Gunnar Nelson last December. Prior to the Nelson fight, Oliveira was 6-1 (1 NC) in his last eight bouts.

Though he entered the UFC as a low-output, stifling wrestler, Oliveira has reinvented himself in recent years into a dynamic action fighter capable of finishing the fight at any moment and in any phase of the fight.

Among active UFC welterweights, Oliveira is ranked:

  • No. 1 in significant strike accuracy (57.6%).
  • No. 8 in submission attempts per 15 minutes (1.1).
  • No. 9 in strikes absorbed per minute (2.12).

Whether on the feet or on the ground, Oliveira is able to find his edge in the fight and exploit it; he’s alternated between knockout and submission for his last five victories.

Initially one of the UFC’s most marketable welterweight prospects, Mike Perry (12-4) has had a rough go of it recently. “Platinum” is on a 1-3 run and his lone win came against a lightweight that took the fight on short notice.

Perry was initially able to get by on raw talent and fighting instincts alone, but as he’s encountered tougher opposition that hasn’t been enough. When faced with technical challenges, Perry tries to brute force his way through them.

Perry’s key to victory is to out-strike his opponents:

  • Perry is 5-1 when he lands more significant strikes than his opponent.
  • Perry is 1-3 when he lands less significant strikes than his opponent.

This is a very bad sign for Perry against Oliveira:

  • Oliveira has a strike differential of +1.07.
  • Perry has a strike differential of -0.42.

The numbers indicate Oliveira will out-land Perry by 1.49 significant strikes per minute, which makes this a clear call.

The Pick: Alex Oliveira (-180)


“Hands of Stone” John Lineker (-150) vs. Cory Sandhagen (+120)

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