UFC Fight Night Betting Odds, Projections & Picks: How to Bet Every Fight On Saturday’s Card (Sept. 12)
Cooper Neill/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images. Pictured: Angela Hill.
- Looking to bet Saturday's UFC 12-fight card? We've got you covered.
- Check out Sean Zerillo's betting preview, including odds, picks and betting angles for Saturday's undercard and main card action.
The UFC continues its run at Apex in Las Vegas on Saturday with a twelve fight card, beginning at 5 p.m. ET on ESPN+. The main card starts at 8 p.m ET on ESPN+ and concludes with a women’s strawweight bout between Angela Hill (12-8) and Michelle Waterson (17-8).
In addition to moneylines and over/unders, there are numerous ways to bet on an MMA fight — including exact winning methods, winning round props, and whether or not the match will go to a decision or finish inside of the distance.
As a result, after examining all of the betting options, your typical UFC card can offer a substantial amount of actionable value.
Check out the full betting odds for Saturday’s UFC card, with analysis and picks from for each fight below:
UFC Fight Night Moneyline Projections and Picks
Below, you can find my crowdsourced fair odds moneyline projection for each of Saturday’s twelve bouts. In the next section, you’ll discover forecasts for those fights to finish inside of the distance, or for each fighter to win by decision, knockout, or submission.
As of writing, seven fighters – all favorites – offer actionable moneyline betting value for Saturday night.
Unfortunately, the moneyline selections look pretty chalky. However, I played one underdog in the prop section, below.
Saturday’s “value plays” are ranked below in order of expected betting value, relative to their projection, as of writing:
- Alexander Romanov (15.9%)
- Billy Quarantillo (12.6%)
- Bobby Green (12.4%)
- Roosevelt Roberts (11.1%)
- Julia Avila (8%)
- Angela Hill (8.4%)
- Jalin Turner (7%)
Roosevelt Roberts is in a terrific spot against Kevin Croom, who is a late replacement for his original opponent, Matt Frevola.
I will continue to bet against fighters in spots such as Croom, who fit these criteria:
- Debut against a UFC veteran: 43% win rate
- Late replacement: 38% win rate
I’ll touch on this fight more in the prop section, but Roberts is an interesting parlay piece against “The Hard-Hitting Hillbilly.”
Bobby Green is my favorite parlay piece for Saturday’s card, making his third appearance since June, and following wins over Clay Guida and Lando Vannata. Alan Patrick has not fought since October 2018, and fighters who return after a layoff of more than one year win less than 40% of the time in the UFC.
Patrick is a pretty one-dimensional grappler, and Green should be able to pick him apart on the feet (+3.34 significant strikes landed per minute) if he can keep the fight standing. Green’s takedown defense against Guida (stuffed 9-of-12 attempts) was pretty stout, and I don’t see Patrick posing a much more significant wrestling threat.
He could keep the fight close for a round, however – and if so I’ll look for a live bet on Green, and his old-school boxing style, after Round 1:
Alexander Romanov and Jalin Turner were both supposed to fight on last week’s card, and I had bets on each of them, but both are now much more significant favorites than they were last week.
Romanov makes his octagon debut against a fellow debutant – which is a much better spot than his originally scheduled debut against UFC veteran Marcos Rogerio de Lima; while Turner will brawl with fellow southpaw Brok Weaver.
Turner has the height (3 inches) and reach (4 inches) advantages over Weaver – but Weaver likely won’t respect Turner’s power and will continually apply pressure and push forward. Weaver eats a ton of shots, however (36% strike defense) and I would expect Turner to win on volume (+1.58 significant strikes per minute), especially if he can use his length to keep Weaver at range. The only way I would play Turner is in a small parlay.
I’m a bit hesitant to bet Romanov at his number in a low-level Heavyweight debut where virtually anything can happen. But I do expect his fight to finish quickly – no matter the result – and we’ll touch on it more in the next section.
Similarly, the moneyline price is too steep for me on Julia Avila over Sijara Eubanks. I bet Karol Rosa around -135 against Eubanks last week, thinking that the line should have been closer to -300; and I don’t see anywhere near a $1.70 difference between Avila and Rosa – two of my favorite prospects. There are better ways to play Avila in the prop market, and I think the most optimal way to bet Avila is to play her live moneyline after Round 1.
I expect a relatively similar outcome, though with different skillsets, between Billy Quarantillo and Kyle Nelson. Nelson has big power, but he tends to gas out quickly, while Quarantillo picks up the pace in the middle and later parts of his fights.
Billy Q offers multiple paths to victory in this spot, so I’m not interested in his prop wagering, but Quarantillo could be useful in a small parlay and he’s also worth a look in the live betting markets after Round 1.
As of writing, I only have one straight moneyline play for Saturday: Angela Hill over Michelle Waterson in the main event.
Hill has a pretty clear volume advantage when this fight stays standing – and I expect her to show better cardio than Waterson in the later rounds, which will only cause her strike margin (+2.45 significant strikes landed per minute) to grow.
Hill also owns the far superior strike differential (+0.59 to -0.48) and her strike defense (64%) is 16% higher than Waterson’s. Her constant footwork and head movement will make her difficult to catch and will serve to frustrate Waterson’s cleaner, but lower volume range attack.
“The Karate Hottie” will likely look to take this fight to the ground and go for a submission. Hill’s takedown defense (72%) and improved grappling will be difficult to penetrate, however – and Waterson (1.68 takedowns per 15 minutes) might only get a couple of opportunities to get the tap.
Hill is the more likely winner on the scorecards, and I would play Hill’s moneyline up to -144, which is a 5% edge (implied 59%) compared to the crowd projection (64%).
- Angela Hill -121 (1 unit)
- Parlay: Bobby Green / Billy Quarantillo (-106, 0.5 units)
- Parlay: Bobby Green / Roosevelt Roberts (-133, 0.5 units)
- Parlay: Bobby Green / Jalin Turner (-130, 0.5 units)
Live Betting Notes
- Live Bet Bobby Green after Round 1
- Live Bet Billy Quarantillo after Round 1
- Live Bet Julia Avila after Round 1
UFC Fight Night Prop Projections and Picks
In addition to creating a crowdsourced projection for moneyline plays, I also collect data on each fighter to win by decision, knockout, or submission — which also enables us to determine fair odds for each fight to go the distance:
At least eight winning method props and six inside the distance props offer projected value for Saturday.
Let’s begin with the main event, and work our way back down the card.
The crowd likes the Hill-Waterson fight to go the distance 81% of the time (implied odds of -426), which offers value relative to the current line (-278).
As a result, Hill to win by decision also offers value (projected -110, listed +125), but I don’t like the variance for a five-round fight inside a smaller 25-foot cage, especially with two of Hill’s past three wins coming by KO/TKO. Waterson also has a decent win probability by submission, so I’ll bypass any prop plays in this main event, and stay with my position on Hill’s moneyline.
In direct opposition to the main event, the crowd likes the co-main event to finish inside the distance 81% of the time (implied -426), which also offers value relative to the listed odds (-275), but the total (1.5 Rounds, Under +105) is ridiculously low for a lightweight fight.
Undefeated Ottman Azaitar has finished 11 of his 12 career victories, and Khama Worthy (five KO losses, 49% strike defense) will face a lot of early pressure. Worthy has the height (3 inches), reach (3 inches), and grappling edges, but I don’t think he’s fully ready for Azaitar’s ruthless power from multiple stances and angles:
I bet “The Bulldozer” to remain undefeated by a first-round finish at +450 (for a quarter unit), which I would play down to +350. For what it’s worth, I projected Azaitar’s odds to win inside the distance at +233.
It’s also worth noting that Worthy won his last two fights as a significant underdog (+510 and +190), and he will now go off as a decent favorite against an undefeated knockout artist. This seems like a poor matchup.
Andrea Lee offers actionable value to win by decision up to -150 (projected -177), even though her moneyline is accurately priced. Her fight with Roxanne Modafferi is projected to go the distance 86% of the time (implied -613), and Lee has a big advantage on the feet (+2.36 margin per minute; +1.6 vs. -1.76 strike differential; +18% accuracy, +11% defense).
Modafferi needs to get the fight up against the cage or to the ground (1.29 takedowns per 15 minutes, 21% accuracy) and hold top control, which seems very unlikely at this stage in their respective careers.
Roxanne squeaked out a split-decision over a very green “KGB” Lee back in 2014, but this is a very ripe revenge spot for an exciting striker. Lee should be able to scramble enough to keep this fight where she wants it.
Bobby Green and Billy Quarantillo both offer value to win by decision. However, I’m not interested in betting either prop. Green, who is typically a point fighter, could score a knockout against an opponent coming back from a significant layoff, while Quarantillo is a potentially underrated finisher, ending five of his past six fights inside the distance.
The Julia Avila vs. Sijara Eubanks fight offers value to go the distance, and Avila to win by decision is my favorite bet of the night. Eubanks is both durable and skilled, but she also only has one round of cardio in her; winning the first round in four of her five UFC fights before fading.
Eubanks may land a takedown and gain some top control time to get an early lead over Avila, but “The Raging Panda”, a former track star, has incredible cardio – and she should maintain a high pace for 15 minutes while capturing the final two rounds.
The prop markets will open late on the next three fights: Croom-Roberts, Martinez-Romanov, and Weaver-Turner, since the bouts were put together latest.
I anticipate that Roosevelt Roberts to win inside the distance (projected 67.5%, implied odds of -208) will be a value bet, and it’s something I would play up to -150.
Romanov to win inside the distance (projected -481) is already listed over -200, given his probability to win either by knockout or submission. But he could also be the man that falls first in this debut Heavyweight bout – which the crowd projected to finish inside the distance 91% of the time (implied odds of -1011).
As a result, even though I rarely take the Under 1.5 rounds in Heavyweight fights – since the Over typically offers value in these spots – it is probably the most optimal way to bet this bout between two gigantic UFC newcomers. Romanov has won eight of his 10 bouts by first-round finish – while Martinez would have clinched the Under 1.5 in each of his past six victories. Expect to see some early fireworks.
Moving down to the first two fights on the card – Bryan Barberena will make his return to the octagon after recovering from a back injury. He has lost three of his past four, and four of his past six fights – but all against top competition; And he’s being handed a relatively easy return opponent, in my opinion, in Anthony Ivy – who didn’t look ready for the UFC after losing less than a minute into his June 13 debut.
Barberena has fought some of the best talent in the Welterweight division, and this is a good litmus test to see if he is ready to jump back in against high-level fighters. Ivy did not appear to be UFC caliber – but he’s also not a conservative fighter – with all 11 of his professional fights ending inside the distance.
As a result, I think Bareberena – who is close in age to Ivy – has a strong chance to close the show in his return to the octagon and get back on track in his MMA career. I projected his odds to win inside the distance at 57.7% (implied -136), and I would bet that prop to -121 (a three percent edge) for a half unit.
— UFC (@ufc) April 22, 2017
In the first bout on Saturday’s card, I’m backing underdog Justine Kish to win by decision at +400, and down to +325, which is a three percent edge compared to the crowd projection (+277, implied 26.5%).
The line movement is trending towards Kish, down from +235 to +200 over the past week. The Russian fights for your money – staying aggressive and pushing forward for the duration of her fights.
Sabina Mazo has landed more than 100 significant strikes in each of her past two fights and figures to have the volume advantage, but Kish can make any fight competitive – and she won’t just stand at range and give Mazo her ideal gameplan.
Mazo’s six-inch reach advantage will mean very little when Kish closes the distance and begins to apply pressure. Mazo will need to deploy her wrestling if she wants to have an easier path to victory, but I see this being a striking battle that plays to the underdog’s chances.
Prop Bets and Totals
- Ottman Azaitar to win in Round 1 (+450, 0.25 units)
- Julia Avila to win by Decision (+100, 1 unit)
- Justine Kish to win by Decision (+400, 0.5 units)
- Andrea Lee to win by Decision (-140, 1 unit)
- Bryan Barberena to win Inside the Distance (-115, 0.5 units)
- Martinez / Romanov, Under 1.5 Rounds (-160, 0.5 units)
- Roosevelt Roberts to win Inside the Distance (bet up to -150, 0.5 units)
Fight to Pass On
Mike Rodriguez vs. Ed Herman
I couldn’t find any betting value on this fight from any perspective; including the moneyline, total, and prop markets. If you made me pick a result, I would go with Rodriguez inside the distance at -120, which is right in line with my projection (55%, implied -122).
“Slow Mike” is fighting just a few weeks after a knockout win over Marcin Prachnio – the 11th finish for Rodriguez in 11 career wins. He also has a significant size (3 inches of height, 5 inches of reach) and athleticism advantage over 39-year-old Ed Herman.
But Herman is a savvy veteran, who has figured out how to slow things down in his later years – taking six of his past 10 UFC fights to the scorecards (3-3 record). He also claims to be in the best shape of his life after staying in camp for a lengthy period of time despite multiple canceled bouts.
Technically, Rodriguez qualifies as a late replacement in this spot. As the younger and more athletic fighter with vast potential, he could certainly dominate Herman from the jump.
But I have a feeling that Herman – who is on a two-fight winning streak and knows the end is near – will find a way to wrangle Rodriguez into the clinch, eliminate the reach disparity, and find a way to make this fight competitive.