UFC on ESPN 41 Odds, Pick & Prediction for Nate Landwehr vs. David Onama: Can’t Ignore These Big Underdog Odds (Saturday, August 13)
Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC. Pictured: UFC featherweight Nate Landwehr
Nate Landwehr vs. David Onama Odds
| Odds as of Thursday and via DraftKings. | |
Hot prospect David Onama steps in on short notice to take on the highly-entertaining Nate "The Train" Landwehr on Saturday at UFC on ESPN 41.
The featherweight fight co-headlines the card, which is also dubbed UFC San Diego. The event takes place at Pechanga Arena in San Diego, and the entire 13-bout lineup airs on ESPN (4 p.m. ET).
Onama came into the UFC with a bang, suffering a loss to Mason Jones on short notice but making a very good account of himself.
Landwehr, meanwhile, entered the UFC with a ton of hype, but he's traded wins and losses over his past four fights. He now looks to finally string together consecutive victories by dragging Onama into deep waters and drowning him.
Will the hype train of Onama continue on down the tracks? Or will it collide with "The Train" and derail? Read on as we break down the matchup and look for betting angles.
Tale of the Tape
| Landwehr | Onama | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 15-4 | 10-1 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 7:45 | 9:12 |
| Height | 5'9" | 5'11" |
| Weight (pounds) | 145 lbs. | 145 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 72" | 74" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 6/6/1988 | 6/7/1994 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 6.51 | 5.61 |
| SS Accuracy | 52% | 48% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 5.96 | 5.58 |
| SS Defense | 51% | 52% |
| Take Down Avg | 0.48 | 1.09 |
| TD Acc | 50% | 22% |
| TD Def | 87% | 50% |
| Submission Avg | 1.0 | 0.5 |
The crowd in San Diego and viewers of Saturday's ESPN-televised co-headliner are in for a treat with this potential Fight of the Night pairing.
Onama gained popularity and love in the MMA world by battling tooth and nail with Jones in his short-notice UFC debut. The pair landed a combined 237 total strikes over 15 minutes, which also included plenty of momentum swings. It's fights such as those that cause the stock of the loser to go up, and that was the case with Onama.
He's a fluent striker with big power in his shots, as well as the ability to face adversity and still find the victory. This was evident in his battle against UFC vet Gabriel Benitez.
He isn't just a power puncher, though. He also has the Brazilian jiu-jitsu card in his back pocket if he needs it. He showcased it in his most recent fight, which was just this past month, when he submitted short-notice replacement Garrett Armfield.
HE PUT HIM TO SLEEP 😴 #UFCVegas58pic.twitter.com/5vmh75tf69
— ESPN MMA (@espnmma) July 9, 2022
At 28 years old, Onama still has plenty of time to grow and become the fighter that the betting line currently indicates that he should be.
Saturday's opponent, Landwehr, is a savage who loves pushing the pace and making his opponents uncomfortable until he can either break them or find the finish.
🚂 Nate the Train[
Locking up the submission! #UFCVegas40pic.twitter.com/toe3By1hi7
— UFC (@ufc) October 16, 2021
He has competed all over the world during his 19-fight professional career, but he really carved out the fighter we know today with big wins in the famed Russian promotion M-1 Global. It was there he captured their featherweight title and defended it twice before coming to the UFC.
Landwehr has wrestling that he can lean on should he need it, but a lot of his success comes from overwhelming opponents in the striking realm with his pressure and output.
The big knock on Landwehr over this four-fight UFC run is his durability issues. He has been knocked out twice in his UFC career, coincidentally both coming from knees.
I believe the public gets enamored by guys who get finishes and disregard the stylistic puzzle they need to solve in their next matchups. This is why I think, based on experience alone, this line is too wide.
Landwehr vs. Onama Pick
The widely accepted narrative surrounding this fight is that Onama will knock out Landwehr in Round 1.
My problem with having Onama as such a wide favorite is that even though he had a good showing in the Jones fight, that was made possible by Jones' poor striking defense.
We did see his takedown defense get exposed on the regional scene, and that could be a viable approach here for Landwehr. I will give Onama credit: He managed to hit reversals and find ways back to his feet in those spots. I think the level of competition helped him in hitting those spots, though.
The biggest concern I have in this fight is the durability of Landwehr. If it holds up, there is no way Onama will look like a -280 favorite on fight night. I agree Onama deserves to be the favorite, but implying he beats Landwehr at a 73% clip is egregious.
This will be one of those rare occasions when my prediction, Onama via knockout, won't line up with the actual bet I would recommend.
Given the fragility of Landwehr, I have concerns about going too deep on him. But I'd recommend a small play to take advantage of this inaccurate line, which I'd play down to +170.
The Pick: Nate Landwehr +235 (DraftKings)
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