Updated 2022 NBA MVP Odds Tracker: Steph Curry’s Odds Keep Improving, LeBron Plummets

Updated 2022 NBA MVP Odds Tracker: Steph Curry’s Odds Keep Improving, LeBron Plummets article feature image
Credit:

Ezra Shaw/Getty Images. Pictured: Stephen Curry #30 of the Golden State Warriors.

  • Updated NBA MVP odds for 2022 list Stephen Curry as the new favorite at +275 (DraftKings Sportsbook), with preseason favorite Luka Doncic falling to +800 as he struggles to repeat his elite efficiency from the last two years.
  • The biggest movers further down the board are Charlotte's LaMelo Ball, Memphis's Ja Morant and Miami's Jimmy Butler. LeBron James has fallen to 50-1 as he deals with injury.

2022 NBA MVP Odds

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook, updated November 15. Learn more about American odds here, and compare NBA MVP odds here.

Team Odds Probability
Stephen Curry +275 19.98%
Kevin Durant +475 13.03%
Giannis Antetokounmpo +600 10.70%
Luka Doncic +800 8.33%
Nikola Jokic +1300 5.35%
Joel Embiid +1500 4.68%
Ja Morant +2200 3.26%
Jimmy Butler +2500 2.88%
Paul George +3000 2.42%
Anthony Davis +3500 2.08%
James Harden +4000 1.83%
Jayson Tatum +4000 1.83%
Donovan Mitchell +4000 1.83%
Trae Young +4500 1.63%
LeBron James +5000 1.47%
Damian Lillard +5000 1.47%
Devin Booker +5000 1.47%
Julius Randle +5500 1.34%
LaMelo Ball +6000 1.23%
Zach Lavine +6500 1.14%
DeMar DeRozan +7000 1.06%
Chris Paul +10000 0.74%
Karl-Anthony Towns +10000 0.74%
Domantas Sabonis +15000 0.50%
Russell Westbrook +15000 0.50%
Jaylen Brown +15000 0.50%
Bradley Beal +15000 0.50%
Bam Adebayo +15000 0.50%
Rudy Gobert +15000 0.50%
De’Aaron Fox +20000 0.37%
Anthony Edwards +25000 0.30%
Khris Middleton +25000 0.30%

The NBA MVP award is a standalone sports betting event. We cover it extensively here. And the debate represents a beautiful synergy between betting and fandom. You don’t need to bet the MVP race to be interested in how the odds are shifting, because it tells an interesting story regardless.

It’s so difficult to win an MVP award — Kevin Durant only has one, and LeBron James has four. You may think a player winning his first will be the first of many, but it rarely is. Over an 82-game regular season, in a sport that’s as sticky year to year as basketball, randomness can’t impact the NBA like it can other sports.

Stephen Curry is consensus favorite across the betting market, and a +275 favorite at DraftKings. He’s trailed by Durant, Giannis Antetokounmpo and preseason favorite Luka Doncic.

Anyone can win an MVP, but here are a few criteria the victors usually have:

  • At least 23 years old, younger than 35
  • On a great team
  • Past MVP consideration
  • Scorer and/or stat-sheet stuffer
  • Bonus: Poor defense doesn’t disqualify you

The NBA MVP award will generally go to a scorer (and offensive all-around star) who has been in the MVP mix before on a great team. So take those into account when placing any bets.

Who Is the NBA MVP Favorite?

Let’s dive into each key contender below:

1. Stephen Curry (+275)

The Warriors look terrific, and Steph Curry is a big reason for that. He’s averaging 28.1 points per game and has ascended to MVP favorite status over the first month of the season.

2. Kevin Durant (+475)

Kyrie Irving is out for now, and perhaps much longer. According to the betting market, Durant’s chances originally increased by about 1% when Kyrie stepped away from the team. Durant is seeing more offensive volume with Irving out, and the MVP narrative will be strong if he can lead the Nets to a regular-season conference title, or close to it.

3. Giannis Antetokounmpo (+600)

Giannis is fresh off his first NBA title and Finals MVP, and while the Bucks lost a few key pieces in the offseason, they should be near the Eastern Conference again. He’ll be in the mix for the MVP award again after winning two consecutive in 2019 and 2020.

4. Luka Doncic (+800)

Luka Doncic was the betting favorite at every sportsbook, and for good reason. He’s finished fourth and sixth the last two years, and enters his age 23 season as the focal point of a team expected to take the next step with him leading the way. Doncic’s usage and volume (and talent, of course) will keep him toward the top of this race all year, barring injury.

Unfortunately for Dallas, things haven’t been pretty so far. The Mavs are 8-4, but Doncic has been inefficient and they’ve mostly beaten up on bad teams. He still deserves to be among the favorites, but it’s no surprise to see Curry pass him.

5. Nikola Jokic (+1300)

Well, well. The defending champ entered last season at 25-1 to win MVP, and while it’s unlikely he repeats, he’s getting a little more love this regular season.

6. Joel Embiid (+1500)

Embiid will also be in the MVP award conversation if he can stay healthy. He won’t Ben Simmons alongside him, but that probably won’t be an MVP factor.

Health is always the biggest concern. Embiid has played just 260 games in seven NBA seasons, including 51 last season, which is on the higher end of his range to date. He did finish second in MVP voting last season.

7. Ja Morant (+2200)

Morant is shooting up the odds board after a red-hot start to the season, and while he’s still a longshot to win it, he’ll very much be in the conversation.

8. Jimmy Butler (+2500)

The Heat retooled a bit last year and should be one of the best teams in the Eastern Conference. But Butler won’t have the offensive output to compete with the names at the top. At age 32, we know who he is.

9. Paul George (+3000)

George looked like an MVP-caliber player in the posteason, carrying the Clippers to the franchise’s first Western Conference Finals without Leonard. They’ll be missing Kawhi for much of this season, too, so maybe George makes some noise in this race.

10. Anthony Davis (+3500)

Davis finished sixth in MVP voting two years ago during the COVID-shortened season, but didn’t factor in last year as he dealt with injuries.

11. James Harden (+4000)

Harden is an interesting flier because if Durant or Kyrie Irving miss time, Harden’s usage will skyrocket, and he’ll return to putting up video game numbers. His usage is already insanely high. However, he’s struggled a bit to adjust to the NBA’s new foul rules, averaging under 20 points per game, a 10-year low.

12. Jayson Tatum (+4000)

Tatum is still just 23-years-old and probably hasn’t played his best basketball yet. The Celtics should be in the playoff hunt in the East despite a new coach. You’re betting on a huge step forward for Tatum, but not one that’s outside the realm of possibility.

13. Donovan Mitchell (+4000)

The Jazz have the highest win total in the Western Conference and Mitchell will lead the way again. He was fifth in usage among qualified players last season, so it’s not a “too many mouths to feed” situation in Utah.

14. Trae Young (+4500)

Young and the Hawks broke through with a playoff appearance and two series wins in his third season. Would an MVP-caliber next step be too much to ask? Probably, but offense is most of what matters here, so his lack of defense won’t hurt him as much as it should.

15. LeBron James (+5000)

You don’t see LeBron this far down the board now, but he’s a different player in a different situation. When he’s at his best, he’s LeBron. But he’s going to take more games off, and his usage will be down with the supporting cast around him. His odds have slipped through the first month as he works his way back from an abdominal injury.

16. Damian Lillard (+5000)

Lillard is off to a rocky start and the Blazers have some serious holes.

17. Devin Booker (+5000)

Booker’s teammate, Chris Paul, finished top 5 in MVP voting last NBA regular season. Is it Booker’s turn now?

The Suns should be one of the league’s best teams after finishing runner-up in the NBA championship if you believe in the efficiency of the NBA win totals market, and Booker is the guy now.

18. Julius Randle (+5500)

The regression monster is coming for Randle, who already started to show some cracks in the playoffs. He finished eighth in MVP voting last year — a very well-deserved finish — but repeating last year’s output is going to be difficult for Randle.

19. LaMelo Ball (+6000)

The Hornets have been fun to watch and LaMelo Ball is the biggest reason why. He’s moved from 150-1 to 60-1 over the first month of the season.

20. Zach Lavine (+6500)

LaVine may not be a favorite but he’s working his way into the conversation. LaVine set career highs in points per game and PER in the shortened 2020-2021 season, and the Bulls look like contenders early on.

21. DeMar DeRozan (+7000)

DeRozan is becoming a key cog in the resurgent Bulls lineup, averaging 26.1 points per game.

22. Chris Paul (+10000)

Paul is still guiding a strong Suns team but Devin Booker is the de facto star and should get more consideration here (even though Paul finished top 5 in voting last year).

23. Karl-Anthony Towns (+10000)

The Timberwolves are improved under new coaching but Towns is far away from the MVP conversation. He’s never finished top 10 in voting.

24. Domantas Sabonis (+15000)

Sabonis took a big step forward last season but the Pacers fell off at the end of the season and missed the playoffs. He averaged 20.3 points, 12 boards and 6.7 assists per game last year.

25. Russell Westbrook (+15000)

Westbrook, now a Laker, shouldn’t have the Herculean stat lines he’s used to, but he will raise their floor when LeBron and AD are out.

26. Jaylen Brown (+15000)

Brown has moved up the board a bit from 125-1 to 80-1 as he continues proving how vital he is to the Celtics.

27. Bradley Beal (+15000)

Maybe Beal would have a better shot on another team, because his gaudy offensive numbers have never earned him much MVP chatter in the past.

28. Bam Adebayo (+15000)

Adebayo’s odds have gotten worse but he’s now a higher betting choice because so many other players have fallen.

29. Rudy Gobert (+15000)

Gobert will never have an MVP profile because of his lack of scoring, but the Jazz look great again, and he’s averaging an absurd 15.9 rebounds per game.

30. De’Aaron Fox (+20000)

Fox could be an MVP candidate if the Kings were any good due to his scoring ability, but he’s a long way off at the moment.

31. Anthony Edwards (+25000)

Edwards has been superior to Towns this year, averaging a team-high 25.9 points plus 6.2 rebounds and 3.5 assists per game.

NBA MVP FAQ

Who Has the Best Odds to Win NBA MVP?

Stephen Curry has the best odds right now, with Kevin Durant right behind him.

When Will the 2022 NBA MVP Be Announced?

The NBA MVP award is generally announced at the end of June.

Past NBA MVP Winners

Year Winner Team
2001 Allen Iverson Philadelphia 76ers
2002 Tim Duncan San Antonio Spurs
2003 Tim Duncan San Antonio Spurs
2004 Kevin Garnett Minnesota Timberwolves
2005 Steve Nash Phoenix Suns
2006 Steve Nash Phoenix Suns
2007 Dirk Nowitzki Dallas Mavericks
2008 Kobe Bryant Los Angeles Lakers
2009 LeBron James Cleveland Cavaliers
2010 LeBron James Cleveland Cavaliers
2011 Derrick Rose Chicago Bulls
2012 LeBron James Miami Heat
2013 LeBron James Miami Heat
2014 Kevin Durant Oklahoma City Thunder
2015 Stephen Curry Golden State Warriors
2016 Stephen Curry Golden State Warriors
2017 Russell Westbrook Oklahoma City Thunder
2018 James Harden Houston Rockets
2019 Giannis Antetokounmpo Milwaukee Bucks
2020 Giannis Antetokounmpo Milwaukee Bucks
2021 Nikola Jokić Denver Nuggets

How would you rate this article?