Raptors vs. Warriors NBA Finals Odds, Picks, Cheat Sheet: How to Bet Klay’s Return in Game 4
Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Golden State Warriors guard Stephen Curry (30) is congratulated by guard Klay Thompson (11) at Oracle Arena.
NBA Finals Game 4 Odds: Raptors vs. Warriors
- Spread: Warriors -4.5
- Over/Under: 215
- Time: 9 p.m. ET
- TV: ABC
- Series Score: Raptors Lead 2-1
It has been a whirlwind 48 hours since the Warriors’ Game 3 loss to the Raptors. The Warriors are no longer favored to win the championship, Klay Thompson is expected to play, Kevin Durant’s status for the series is up in the air, and rich fans who sit courtside — from Jay-Z and Beyoncé to Mark Stevens — have stolen the headlines.
So what’s in store for Game 4? We’ve compiled everything you need to know for Friday’s matchup below.
To be upfront, I grabbed the Warriors spread at -5.5, as well as the moneyline, on Wednesday night after it was widely released. That was the same opening number as Game 3, in which it looked unlikely Kevin Durant would play and Klay Thompson was truly questionable.
For Game 4, we knew that Klay would likely be back, and I think the general consensus was that Durant had a good shot to be as well. It was announced Wednesday morning that he would get in a practice with some of the bench players Thursday, and head coach Steve Kerr had said a practice was required for him to return to action.
We talked through our initial reactions to the Durant news here, but suffice to say it was definitely surprising he was ruled out so early. I have thoughts on why they would do that and give the Raptors more time to prepare, but that’s another battle for another day. Let’s talk Game 4. — Bryan Mears
The line for tonight’s Game 4 of the NBA Finals between the Toronto Raptors and Golden State Warriors has taken one heck of a ride.
After Golden State opened as a 4.5-point favorite on Wednesday, big bets immediately landed on the Warriors, pushing the point spread up to a consensus of -5.5 across the market.
Early Thursday afternoon, we learned that Klay Thompson would be back for Game 4, coinciding with the line movement to that point.
However, a few hours later, news broke that Kevin Durant is still not ready return and will not be in action tonight.
This sent the Raptors-Warriors Game 4 betting line on the move again, this time down to Golden State -4.5 to account for Durant’s absence. Since the drop to 4.5, the spread has settled in without any further movement.
At that point, professional bettors turned their attention to the over/under for Thursday night, forcing oddsmakers to make their first major adjustments to the Game 4 total. — PJ Walsh
Read more on the Warriors-Raptors Game 4 betting market here
More Warriors-Raptors Game 4 Analysis
- Moore: The Weirdness Surrounding the NBA Finals and Why the Raptors’ Stock Is Peaking
- Raybon’s Warriors-Raptors Game 4 Prop: Will Steph Curry Grab 6 Rebounds?
- Kevin Durant’s Injury, Absence Moving Odds for Raptors-Warriors Game 4
- Big Bets Moving Raptors-Warriors NBA Finals Game 4 Betting Line
- How Kevin Durant Injury Has Altered Odds, Expectations for Warriors In Game 4 of 2019 NBA Finals vs. Raptors
DeMarcus Cousins is the biggest X-Factor for today’s DFS slate. He was vital to the Warriors’ success in Game 2 and rewarded fantasy owners with 37.0 DraftKings points in 27.6 minutes, but he looked like a shell of himself in Game 3. He shot just 1-7 from the field and managed just three rebounds and two assists.
That said, he still figures to feature a prominent role in the Warriors rotation if Kevon Looney is unable to suit up. Looney has been upgraded to questionable, but it still seems like a long shot that he’ll actually be able to play.
Cousins is capable of doing a lot of damage when on the court — he led the team with an average of 1.40 DraftKings points per minute during the regular season — and he’s currently projected for 23.4 minutes in our NBA Models. He has a lot of bust potential, but he also offers tremendous upside at just $6,800 on DraftKings.
Thompson is another intriguing option. He should see reduced ownership due to his injury, which obviously increases his appeal in the single-game format. He’s coming off 42.25 DraftKings points in his last game despite playing just 32.1 minutes.
He always seems to have big performances when the Warriors have their backs against the wall, and this is the first time since 2016 that the Warriors haven’t been favored to win the title.
Kyle Lowry continues to rewrite the narrative surrounding his ability to perform in the postseason. He’s really struggled in previous years, but he’s put together some huge moments for the Raptors this season. He’s coming off 46.5 DraftKings points in Game 3 and found himself in the winning lineup on DraftKings.
Should you bet on another big performance tonight?
Read more about the potential DFS standouts for Game 4 here.
More NBA Finals DFS Content
- 5 Tips to Dominate the DraftKings NBA Showdown Format
- How Does the Single-Game NBA Format on FanDuel Differ From DraftKings?
No Kevin Durant or Klay Thompson? Apparently that can lead to some struggles, even for the Warriors.
Despite Steph Curry’s best efforts, Golden State fell 123-109 at home in Game 3, shifting the series in Toronto’s favor. After their Game 1 loss, the Warriors remained series favorites, checking in between -130 and -150 around the market.
Not this time.
That’s right, the Golden State Warriors are not the favorites to win the NBA Championship. KD being ruled out for Game 4 hasn’t helped their cause, either.
Though action on the Warriors’ series odds did move the line in their favor on Thursday morning with many books settling in at a pick ’em, the Raptors are now slight favorites at most books, and as high as -130.
If this seems like a strange occasion, it is. — Mark Gallant
Read more about the Warriors snapping their streak here
More NBA Finals Futures Analysis
- Raptors-Warriors Series Betting Odds: Toronto Now Favored to Win 2019 NBA Finals
- Updated 2019 NBA Finals MVP Odds: Steph Curry Remains Heavy Favorite
- Locky: How to Hedge Raptors, Warriors Futures Tickets During the NBA Finals
- How Kevin Durant Injury Has Affected Odds, Expectations for Warriors
The Golden State Warriors are perhaps the most publicly-bet team in sports. That probably comes at no surprise given they’re the winners of three of the last four NBA championships and have a whole starting five full of All-Stars.
In the last three seasons — the Kevin Durant Golden State Era — the Warriors have nearly double the amount of games compared to any other team in which they’ve received at least 70% of the spread bets (via Bet Labs):
In those games, the public has not fared well on the Warriors. When they’ve received at least 70% public support, they’ve gone just 60-73-3 (45.1%) against the spread (ATS), losing $1,597 for a $100 bettor — the worst mark of any team.
Likewise, sharp bettors and those fading the Warriors have done well, especially in Oracle, where the Dubs have gone 17-26-2 ATS as a heavy public team over the last three years.
That has not changed in the NBA Finals through two games. Despite Kevin Durant being out, the Warriors closed with 66% of the spread bets in Game 1 and a whopping 71% in Game 2.
What has been incredibly interesting, though, is how the betting market has shifted despite that public support. — Bryan Mears
Check out more 2019 NBA Finals betting trends here
More NBA Finals Betting Trends
- How to Bet the Golden State Warriors After a Playoff Loss
- Road Warriors: Inside Golden State’s 20 Consecutive Series Road Winning Streak
- Warriors Playoff Betting Trends to Know: Road Dominance, KD Effect, In-Game Comebacks, More
- NBA Finals Game 4 Betting Trends Favor Warriors, Especially in First Half
- NBA Finals Betting Trend: Target Second-Half Home Teams, Favorites
- Fade the Public When Betting Warriors Games? Not Always
No one knows how the NBA Finals will or won’t affect Kevin Durant’s free agency decision. League executives commonly remarked when queried on how they think it impacts things that it’s a stupid question to begin with because it reflects the very thing Kevin Durant has railed on so many times: no one is inside his head.
However, Durant’s decision is so spectacularly impactful on the league, it could shape so many things, that it’s only natural given everything that has gone on with him and the Warriors to wonder how the Finals will shape it.
Durant has been the best player in the playoffs at one point and then saw his team win six straight without him. He has fought with Draymond Green, made up, railed at the media, responded more on social media, opened his own media offices in New York and been linked to a half dozen teams. But how do the Finals factor in?
Let’s look at the possibilities and then try and figure out, at least from the outside, what the decision looks like, with the understanding that Durant’s going to do what Durant’s going to do. — Matt Moore
Read more about Durant’s impending free agency decision here