Raptors vs. Warriors NBA Finals Betting Preview: Will Golden State Rebound in Game 4?

Raptors vs. Warriors NBA Finals Betting Preview: Will Golden State Rebound in Game 4? article feature image

Credit: Tom Szczerbowski-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Golden State Warriors guard Klay Thompson (11).

2019 NBA Finals Game 4 Betting Odds: Raptors at Warriors

  • Spread: Warriors -4.5
  • Over/Under: 215
  • Time: 9 p.m. ET
  • TV Channel: ABC
  • Series Score: Raptors Lead 2-1

>> All odds as of Thursday night. Download The Action Network App to get real-time odds and live win probabilities on your bets.

The Warriors will get Klay Thompson back but will have to battle down 2-1 without Kevin Durant again for Game 4.

Will they even the series? Our experts discuss.

Betting Trends to Know

The Warriors are 41-14 (74.5%) straight-up after losing by double digits in their previous game under Steve Kerr. That 74.5% win rate for Kerr is the second-highest in the Bet Labs database (since 2004-05), behind none other than Nick Nurse, who is 11-1 (91.7%) in that spot, including 3-0 in the playoffs. – Evan Abrams

The Warriors allowed 123 points in their Game 3 loss to the Raptors — the fourth time they have allowed 120 points or more in the 2019 playoffs. In the 2017 and 2018 playoffs combined, the Warriors allowed 120 points or more a total of three times.

Under Kerr, the Warriors have held their opponents to 106 points per game in their next game, with just 12 of 63 teams reaching that 120 point mark again. After allowing 120 points or more, the Warriors are 49-14 (77.8%) straight-up, including 10-3 in the playoffs, but they did lose their last game in this spot against the Rockets in Game 4 of the Western Conference Semifinals. – Abrams

What an awful defensive performance for the Warriors in Game 3: Toronto shot over 40% from 3-point range, scored more than 120 points and had 30 assists. It was only the second time the Warriors have allowed that “triple-disaster” on defense in their 102 playoff games under Steve Kerr.

Both of those defensive performances have come in the 2019 playoffs; the first time it happened was in the first round against the Clippers, and the Dubs won and covered against L.A. in Game 3. – Abrams

In Game 3 in Oracle Arena, the Raptors became just the second team to beat the Warriors in their first home playoff game of a series. Under Kerr, the Warriors are 9-1-1 (90.9%) against the first-half spread and 10-1 straight-up on the first half moneyline in the playoffs at home after losing their previous game, beating their opponents by 8.6 points per game. – Abrams

Mears: How I’m Handicapping Game 4

To be upfront, I grabbed the Warriors spread at -5.5, as well as the moneyline, on Wednesday night after it was widely released. That was the same opening number as Game 3, in which it looked unlikely Kevin Durant would play and Klay Thompson was truly questionable.

For Game 4, we knew that Klay would likely be back, and I think the general consensus was that Durant had a good shot to be as well. It was announced Wednesday morning that he would get in a practice with some of the bench players Thursday, and head coach Steve Kerr had said a practice was required for him to return to action.

We talked through our initial reactions to the Durant news here, but suffice to say it was definitely surprising he was ruled out so early. I have thoughts on why they would do that and give the Raptors more time to prepare, but that’s another battle for another day. Let’s talk Game 4.

Right after the Durant news, we tracked a steam move (no surprise) on the Raps, pushing it down to 5 and eventually 4.5. Some bettors bought back the Warriors at 4.5, and now it continues to fluctuate between 4.5 and 5. The question is: What’s a fair line?

Let’s look back at Game 3 for some context. That closed at Warriors -2.5, which means the addition of Klay, along with perhaps some extra motivation now down 2-1 at home, is a difference of about two points. I think, while that might be appropriate for Klay on the Warriors in a vacuum, you can make an argument that’s greatly understating his importance to this non-KD team right now.

Basketball is not played in a vacuum, and what the Warriors need desperately is exactly what Klay gives them: A threat of a shot. Steph was awesome in Game 3, putting up nearly 50 points on 37.4% usage; he also led the team in assist rate and generally had to do everything on the offensive end.

There were numerous examples, but look at how many Raptors are in the lane when Curry finally takes a shot:

All five! Fred VanVleet and Kyle Lowry cheated off Draymond Green and Quinn Cook, and Andrew Bogut and Alfonzo McKinnie were already near the lane, bringing their defenders with them.

From Game 2 here, Curry was able to get open in the lane because Kawhi Leonard wouldn’t leave Klay.

From Game 1, no weakside help here because of Klay’s presence in the corner:

You get it. Steph gets credit for warping the floor, but Klay has that effect, too, and when combined with Steph’s all-around prowess and Draymond’s playmaking — well, that’s why they won a title even without Durant.

But Klay’s presence won’t be felt just on offense. Because of personnel available, Draymond had to often be out on the perimeter, at times defending Kawhi, Lowry, Danny Green… you name it. It’s harder to cheat off those guys than, say, Pascal Siakam, and Klay’s addition will give another defender on Kawhi and let Draymond worry more about help defense — his best, historically great skill.

I would lean Warriors even still at -4.5 for those reasons and was really hoping it would get down to 4, but it looks like that won’t happen. — Bryan Mears

Editor’s note: The opinions on this game are from the individual writers and are based on their research, analysis and perspective. They are independent of, and may not always match with, the algorithm-driven Best Bets from Sports Insights.

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