2018 Sun Bowl Betting Guide: Expect Some Big Plays During Pitt-Stanford

2018 Sun Bowl Betting Odds, Pick: Pitt-Stanford

• Odds: Stanford -4.5
• Over/Under: 52
• Date: Monday, Dec. 31
• Location: El Paso, Texas
• Time: 2 p.m. ET
• TV: CBS

Stanford and Pitt will bring explosive offenses to the Sun Bowl, each hoping to hit their share of big plays to give fans a better game than the last time the Panthers played in this game (a 3-0 loss to Oregon State in 2008).

The Cardinal closed the season strong behind a dangerous passing attack — different than what you'd expect. Pitt was a pretty easy team to cap in the second half of the season — it shredded anyone was a bad run defense, but couldn't do much when forced into obvious passing situations.

Odds Moves For Sun Bowl

By Danny Donahue

Stanford opened as a 6.5-point favorite in this one, and has drawn 58% of bets to this point. Despite that, the Cardinal are down to -5.5 thanks in part to the 68% of money behind Pitt.

And despite a significant backing of the under (59% of bets and 84% of money), this total has yet to budge from 52 (see live betting data here).

Betting Trends For Pitt-Stanford

By Evan Abrams

The Sun Bowl between Stanford and Pittsburgh is going to be played in El Paso, Texas, with the average temperature during play projected to be around 40 degrees.

Since 2005, Stanford has played one game in below 40-degree temperatures (2017 at Washington State) and in that span, has played only four games in temperatures below 45 degrees. The Cardinal have gone 1-3 straight-up and against the spread.

By Stuckey

It has been very profitable to back Stanford head coach David Shaw. In fact, since 2005, only one other coach (Ohio State's Jim Tressel) has had better success from a betting perspective (including postseason). Shaw is 65-40-2 ATS in that time.

Not Much Pace, But Some Explosiveness

By Steve Petrella

Both Stanford and Pitt rank in the bottom 15 in plays per minute and adjusted pace. So don't expect them to play lightning fast.

But you should expect some big plays. Both teams rank top 40 in IsoPPP+ — Stanford thanks to its big receivers and jump-ball offense, Pitt thanks to its excellent stable of running backs that can break off big plays at any time. Both defenses are middle-of-the-pack against their opponents respective strengths.

There's a slight offensive advantage on both sides, so I expect a few big plays from both teams.

Stanford Closed Strong

By Steve Petrella

We often forget about Pac-12 teams who fade from the national picture early. So you may not have seen what Stanford did toward the end of the season.

The Cardinal only lost twice after Oct. 6 — by a combined seven points to Washington State and Washington. They had postgame win expectancies of at least 75% in their final four contests after not topping 34% in the four games before that.

Stanford's offense in particular improved late. K.J. Costello threw for more than 300 yards in four of the last five games and four-plus touchdowns in three of those.

Bet to Watch

By Collin Wilson

My first thought in this game was that these two teams move the ball at a snail’s pace, which should give a lean to the Under. Pitt is top 20 in time of possession with their strength being the rush, but are just 127th in adjusted pace. The Panthers are top 20 in standard and passing downs run rate, giving head coach Pat Narduzzi the ability to control the clock.

Stanford also does not operate with tempo, ranking 129th in adjusted pace. Unlike Pitt, the Cardinal look to pass frequently with a standard downs run rate of 121st.

The Action Network projections make this game at Stanford -9.5 with a total of 52.5, while S&P+ projects the Trees at -9.

Cardinal running back Bryce Love is not expected to play, but it's not as big of a factor to the point spread for a pass-dominant Stanford team. While Stanford is the lean on the side with better third down conversion rate, red zone scoring and sacks, it is the total that deserves attention.

The Pitt offense is powered by rushing, specifically 11th in efficiency and 8th in explosiveness. The Panthers should be able to control the trench and break chunk gains on the ground. Stanford has rush defense S&P+ rank of 66th, specifically 64th against explosiveness and 92nd in stuff rate.

Stanford is fantastic when pinned against their goal, ranking 15th in defensive finishing drives. But Pitt’s explosive running attack could get points on the board in a quick fashion.

Conversely, the Panthers pass defense may not be ready for the Cardinal who rank seventh in passing S&P+. K.J. Costello leads an air attack that is 22nd in pass completion and 38th in passing downs explosiveness.

Pitt has a defensive passing downs explosiveness rank of 95th. In short, both offenses excel in their own scheme to score quickly while neither defense can prevent it. Go over the total in El Paso.

Collin's Pick: Over 52