Clemson looks to be the class of the ACC, but Miami, SMU and Louisville are nipping on Dabo Swinney’s heels.
The bottom of the conference is weaker, but Action Network senior writer Collin Wilson sees plenty of value from top to bottom and dished out his top futures and win totals for the ACC in 2025.
With that, let's dive into our 2025 ACC Preview and college football picks for the upcoming NCAAF season.
2025 ACC Odds
| Team | Odds |
|---|---|
| Clemson | +105 |
| Miami | +380 |
| SMU | +850 |
| Louisville | +850 |
| Georgia Tech | +1200 |
| Duke | +2500 |
| Florida State | +2800 |
| Virginia Tech | +3500 |
| North Carolina | +4000 |
| Pittsburgh | +4500 |
| NC State | +4500 |
| Syracuse | +7000 |
| Virginia | +8000 |
| Boston College | +8000 |
| California | +15000 |
| Wake Forest | +50000 |
| Stanford | +50000 |
All odds via DraftKings as of Wednesday, Aug 13.
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I love Clemson this year.
I think quarterback Cade Klubnik is going to have a breakout season. He had 28 Big Time Throws (BTTs) to 13 Turnover Worthy Plays (TWPs) last season, lowering his TWP rate to an elite 2.3%. He should have an even better season with Antonio Williams and Bryant Wesco returning as his top receivers.
With Phil Mafah moving on, the running back room could be a weakness. Freshman Gideon Davidson is expected to be the featured back as a four-star prospect and the fifth-ranked running back in the 2025 class.
While the program seems to like him, I’m worried about how he’ll handle the load as a true freshman.
Regardless, Clemson’s offense will work — especially if Klubnik absorbs more of offensive coordinator Garrett Riley’s playbook in year three.
On the other side of the ball, I’m a huge fan of new defensive coordinator Tom Allen, an excellent, proven coach. He inherits nine returning starters, including two of the best defensive linemen in college football between edge TJ Parker and tackle Peter Woods, alongside a shutdown cornerback in Avieon Terrell.
The Tigers finished eighth nationally in Havoc last season, and I suspect they’ll improve on those numbers with Allen at the helm and more experience across the roster.
I project the Tigers as double-digit favorites against every ACC opponent except for their road game at Louisville. Therefore, I’ll be betting on Clemson to take home its second consecutive ACC Title.
Pick: Clemson to Win ACC (+105)
I don’t trust the Hurricanes.
I dropped Miami five points in my power ratings over the Summer, for several reasons.
First is experience. The Canes posted a -5 TARP number.
Second is last year’s late downswing, where Miami lost to Georgia Tech, Syracuse and Iowa State by a combined 10 points.
Finally, what are we getting from new quarterback Carson Beck?
The senior posted his worst year last season, nearly doubling his TWP rate (from 2.3% to 3.8%). The Georgia offensive line kept him mostly clean, and he still failed to execute. But in 70 dropbacks in a pressured pocket, Beck completed just 27 passes with a 9.4% TWP rate.
The Hurricanes finished 24th in PFF’s Pass Blocking grades last season, and they should be good again, especially after importing center James Brockermeyer from TCU. Beck should be kept clean, but I wonder if he can re-find his form from 2023.
On the defensive side of the ball, I expect plenty of Havoc again after the Canes finished top-25 nationally in that mark last season.
I like Louisiana Tech transfer David Blay Jr. (12 pressures last season) and returning edge rusher Akheem Mesidor (combined 10 TFLs and sacks last year).
I realize they have a new defensive coordinator in Corey Hetherman. Still, the Hurricanes ranked 92nd nationally in Tackling and 91st in Defensive Finishing Drives last season. They also struggled mightily to stop Rush Explosiveness.
Another common theme with Mario Cristobal-coached teams? Penalties. The Canes ranked 120th nationally in that regard.
I’m very worried that Heatherman and Cristobal won’t be able to change these things overnight.
Miami also doesn’t have an easy schedule. The Canes face Notre Dame on Sunday night in Week 1. They also host Florida, visit Florida State, and host Louisville in a three-game stretch between late September and October.
They play SMU on the road and end the season with back-to-back road games against Virginia Tech and Pitt during Thanksgiving week.
I’m worried about Cristobal, Beck and the defense. I’ve downgraded these guys significantly in my power ratings. And I’ll be betting the under on Miami’s win total this season.
Pick: Miami Under 9.5 Wins (-155)
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It feels like SMU has hit the schedule lottery in back-to-back seasons — the Mustangs rank 74th nationally in strength of schedule this season.
Quarterback Kevin Jennings posted 14 TWPs last season, but five were against Duke, three were against Penn State, and two were against Clemson — the three toughest secondaries on the schedule. He was near perfect otherwise.
He lost a few key pass-catching weapons, but tight end RJ Maryland returns after posting 2.7 yards per route run (YRR) last season.
The offensive line looks to be in great shape, with 117 career starts across the front five, including two transfer portal starters from Power 4 programs (Arkansas and Oklahoma).
There’s still some confusion surrounding the running back depth chart, but redshirt Freshman Derrick McFall was named to the Doak Walker watch list.
There are plenty of questions on the defense. I’m a tad worried about linebacker Alexander Kilgore, who is an excellent tackler but brutal in coverage.
However, the Mustangs are strong in the back end, where Isaiah Nwokobia and Ahmaad Moses form arguably the best safety duo in the nation. Also, edge rusher Isaiah Smith was a key factor in SMU’s top-20 Havoc ranking.
But, ultimately, the schedule is not that difficult. Yes, it’s harder than last year, including a road trip against Clemson. But the Mustangs host Miami and Louisville, and they get bye weeks before Louisville and Syracuse.
I think the Mustangs have a good shot to get back to the ACC Championship. I price that result out at around +290, giving us a good edge against the number available at DraftKings.
Pick: SMU to Make ACC Championship (+340)
I think Louisville is the second-best team in the ACC.
Still, I don’t expect the Cardinals to finish second in the conference, mainly because I loathe their Nov. 22 spot against SMU, a road trip to Dallas sandwiched in between home games against Clemson and Kentucky, while the Mustangs will be fresh off a bye week.
However, I’m a big fan of the offense.
The Cardinals have the most experienced offensive line in the nation, with over 200 career starts between the front five.
Those guys should keep USC transfer quarterback Miller Moss protected, and I think he’s a great fit. Although he was benched later in the season, he destroyed LSU’s defense in the opener with five BTTs.
I believe Moss can start making those throws again with Jeff Brohm and Brian Brohm as coaches. They’ll be much better for him than the quarterback coaches at USC.
Running back Duke Watson could be a star. He averaged 4.8 yards after first contact (YAFC) last season, a truly insane mark. He forced 30 missed tackles in just 69 rushing attempts, a nearly 50% mark.
I don’t have many questions about the offense, but I am worried about the defense.
Can the Cardinals replicate their success from last year? Specifically, can they rank top-50 nationally in Havoc and top-15 in PFF’s Pass Rush grades?
Linebackers TJ Quinn and Stanquan Clark return after combining for 158 tackles last season, and defensive tackle Rene Konga returns after amassing 24 pressures from the interior last year.
While there are returning players at key positions, the Cardinals had to dip into the portal to backfill at defensive edge and in the secondary. Many of those guys are question marks.
It’ll be near-impossible for Louisville to beat SMU. However, the Cardinals could maybe take down Miami on Oct. 17 after their bye week. If their two losses are Clemson and SMU, they’ll finish 10-2 and likely make the College Football Playoff.
I project 10.2 wins for the Cardinals and will be backing them in both markets.
Pick: Louisville Over 8.5 Wins (-130) · Louisville to Make College Football Playoff (+310)
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I want to love Georgia Tech — any team that takes Georgia to eight overtimes deserves respect. But the Yellow Jackets are losing a ton, going through scheme changes, and dealing with some issues that we can’t ignore.
Quarterback Haynes King and running back Jamal Haynes return, forming one of the SEC’s more dynamic backfield duos. However, they’ll be protected by two brand-new tackles — one of whom is South Alabama transfer Malachi Carney, who ranked 326th among FBS tackles in PFF’s grades (57.5).
I believe in offensive coordinator Buster Faulkner, but there’s only so much he can do if his tackles can’t hold up in the running or passing games.
New defensive coordinator Blake Gideon brings in a 4-2-5 scheme. It’s nice that four of the top five tacklers from last year’s Georgia Tech squad return. The team also brought in transfers from Penn State, Miami and USC to beef up the defensive line and stop the run.
Still, they need to clean up their tackling (123rd nationally in PFF’s grades) and pass-rush (126th in PFF’s grades). Gideon will have his hands full shoring up the defense.
I’m also worried about the schedule, especially the five-week span in October and November, where the Yellow Jackets have just one home game.
Ultimately, I think they have a 10-win ceiling (surefire losses to Clemson and Georgia) if they win thrice as short road dogs (Colorado, Duke, NC State). But I project them with only 5.7 wins and will be betting Under 7.5 at plus-money.
Pick: Georgia Tech Under 7.5 Wins (+130)
I love Duke. I project the Blue Devils with 7.7 wins this season.
They already had quarterback Maalik Murphy, but they were aggressive in the offseason and decided to upgrade by grabbing Tulane transfer Darian Mensah, who tossed 22 touchdowns to only six interceptions last season with 17 BTTs to 13 TWPs with an 11.3-yard average depth of target (aDOT).
Mensah is also super mobile, amassing nearly 250 scramble yards last season.
That’s important because while Duke returns four offensive linemen from last season, the front five ranked 132nd nationally in Line Yards. The Blue Devils can’t create running lanes, so having a mobile quarterback will help significantly.
Duke grabbed a legit weapon for him in the portal, with wideout Andrel Anthony transferring in from Oklahoma. He was hurt all of last season but posted 2.8 yards per route run in 2023 for the Sooners.
The defense was good last season, finishing among the top-10 FBS teams in PFF’s Coverage grades and Havoc.
The Blue Devils run a well-schemed and well-executed defense that centers around shutdown cornerback Chandler Rivers, who pieced together six PBUs, three interceptions and a ridiculous 6.5 TFLs.
The schedule is interesting. It’s tough early in the year, especially the four-week stretch where the Devils visit Tulane, host NC State, visit Syracuse and visit Cal.
But they get two bye weeks in October — before the Georgia Tech and Clemson games — meaning they’ll be fresh for the final stretch and should stack some wins late.
Pick: Duke Over 6.5 Wins (-160)
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Gus Malzahn comes in as offensive coordinator, and we’re expecting a lot of Wildcat and RPOs as the base offense to help reset the roster.
Tommy Castellanos had a pretty modest rushing role last year for Boston College, with 104 designed rushing yards and 183 more on scrambles. On zone-read plays, though, he gained just six yards total.
That’s telling because the Malzahn offense leans heavily on those reads, so it raises the question: Does this system really suit him?
Whether those six yards came from sneaks, designed boots or scrambles, it’s clear Castellanos didn’t get much going there. So if he’s the quarterback running Malzahn's offense, I’m skeptical about how well he'll fit.
Meanwhile, running back Roydell Williams hasn’t really been a game-changer yet. In his fourth year with Alabama, he averaged just 3.4 yards after contact on 112 carries and didn’t particularly stand out in terms of forcing missed tackles.
On defense, they brought in defensive coordinator Tony White to improve what’s been a shaky unit. Last year, the 'Noles ranked outside the top 100 in key areas, including contested catch rate, Passing Down Success Rate and Expected Points Added. That has to improve.
The silver lining is having four of the top six tacklers returning. Cornerback Jeremiah Wilson is a strong addition, too, after posting solid coverage numbers and plenty of pass breakups at Houston and Syracuse.
Looking forward, Miami visits Tallahassee after a bye week on Oct. 4, and Virginia Tech is in the same spot on Nov. 15. Outside of that, FSU has a tough trip to Clemson on Nov. 8.
I’m just not convinced FSU can get over six wins, so I’m taking under 6.5 at +125. I’m also eyeing Florida State as a home underdog against Miami.
Pick: Florida State Under 6.5 Wins (+110)
Bringing in Philip Montgomery as the offensive coordinator and Kyron Drones’ quarterback coach feels like a smart move.
Virginia Tech comes in at 121st in Havoc Allowed, so it definitely needs some calm and order at the quarterback spot, and Montgomery fits the bill. He has a solid track record with a lot of success coaching quarterbacks, especially back in the day with Robert Griffin III.
He also spent close to eight years as Tulsa’s head coach.
On the ground, running back Terion Stewart racked up over 900 yards last season with a strong 4.1 yards after first contact. He can create those highlight-reel runs.
That said, offensive line depth is a bit of a concern, as all five starters move on.
The offense will probably take on more of a pro-style vibe with Montgomery calling plays.
Defensively, though, there’s some inexperience, especially in the cornerback room. The portal also brought in two safeties, so there will be some growing pains on this side of the ball.
Virginia Tech takes on South Carolina in Week 1, which is an interesting matchup. While the Hokies need to replace their offensive line, the Gamecocks bring in a new defensive line, which might balance that weakness out a bit.
Their ACC road schedule includes NC State, Georgia Tech, Florida State and Virginia on the road. That’s a manageable slate, especially with the overall schedule ranked 55th in difficulty nationally.
I’m leaning a bit over the win total, which sits at 6.5. I project 6.7 but haven't pulled the trigger yet. Instead, I may look to bet that game against the Gamecocks.
Pick: Pass
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Honestly, I’m having a tough time spotting a single coach on this schedule who’s going to outsmart not just Bill Belichick, but also Steve Belichick.
Steve has a year under his belt as a defensive coordinator at Washington, but that’s still something to note. Whatever defense they roll out, the secondary and linebackers should be solid in pass coverage.
That said, my real question is about offensive coordinator Freddie Kitchens and what he’s going to do with quarterback Gio Lopez. The offensive line is kind of a patchwork crew right now, and we’re still figuring out who the real weapons are.
We’re hopeful about wide receiver Kobe Paysour, and Lopez certainly turned heads last year at South Alabama. He tossed 18 touchdowns against just five interceptions and had over 450 rushing yards. He can really get moving, and he makes good decisions with an 18:13 big-time throw to turnover-worthy play ratio.
The tricky part is I have no clear idea of what Kitchens’ game plan will be. Will he lean on the offense’s passing strength because he sees gaps in the running back group? Or maybe the offensive line’s weaknesses push him toward more passing?
Then there’s the schedule. How many of these teams have rushing attacks strong enough to break through? TCU definitely isn’t known for pounding the rock, and although the Horned Frogs are getting steamed a bit, this schedule throws you right into the deep end when it comes to coaching prowess.
I just don’t see any power rushing teams here, and I’m not sure coaches like Jake Dickert, Dave Doeren or Tony Elliott can match up with this staff.
That said, it is college football, and things can flip quickly. I’m not putting any money on this team because I can’t confidently say over or under given the unknowns and the fact that plugging in NFL talent and expecting instant success is a stretch.
There have been some NFL coaches who transitioned to college and succeeded running pro-style offenses, which can throw off teams used to the spread, but that’s not a guarantee.
If I had to lean one way, it’d be under, but the schedule’s too soft. A lot of questions remain, but the coaching edge here feels pretty clear.
Pick: Pass
Quarterback Eli Holstein returns, along with three of his top four receivers, which is a huge boost for this offense. Last year, Holstein had a brutal 12:20 ratio of big-time throws to turnover-worthy plays, so he'll need that help.
To make matters worse, the offensive line ranked a dismal 117th in pass blocking.
After starting 7-0, a wave of injuries hit hard, and the team ended up covering only once after that fast start. It felt like they ran out of that early-season luck.
That said, I really like offensive coordinator Kade Bell, who came over from Western Carolina to lead Pitt to the fifth-fastest tempo.
Defensively, nine of the top 13 tacklers return, which is promising. Edge rusher Jimmy Scott led the Panthers with 40 pressures, and linebacker Rasheem Biles topped the team with five pass breakups.
I fully expect the Narduzzi defense to live up to its usual standards after ranking 14th in Havoc and third in Defensive Line Yards. Those numbers should hold steady or even improve.
On the whole, the analytics look solid. They could improve in Quality Drives Allowed and Finishing Drives Allowed, where they’re stuck around the middle of the pack.
Looking at the schedule, I expect a 2-0 start before the top-20 run defense faces West Virginia in the Backyard Brawl. A well-timed bye week before hosting Louisville is a nice break, especially since Pitt will be the underdog in that game.
The back-to-back travel from FSU to Syracuse isn’t ideal, especially with the Orange coming off a bye, but the good news is another bye just before hosting Notre Dame. Plus, Miami visits on Nov. 29, which is always a welcome challenge at home.
Pitt can beat expectations here. The schedule isn’t a cakewalk — it sits at No. 49 nationally —but it breaks well in the spots the Panthers needed it to. I'll take Pitt to go over its win total of 6.5 at +115.
Pick: Pitt Over 6.5 Wins (+140)
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NC State brings in a new offensive coordinator in Kurt Roper, and the numbers we’ve seen on quarterback CJ Bailey lately are a mixed bag.
Bailey came up clutch down the stretch last season, but his turnover total nearly doubled his rushing touchdowns. Plus, a 14:18 big-time throw to turnover-worthy play ratio isn’t exactly encouraging.
He’s a freshman, so some wiggle room is fair, but the fumble issues are reminiscent of what we saw for years with Cam Ward — plenty of rushing touchdowns but a frustrating number of fumbles to go along with them.
With KC Concepcion moving on, the spotlight turns to tight end Justin Joly. He commanded a team-high 57 targets and is an elite blocker as well. He's arguably the best tight end in the ACC at the moment.
At wide receiver, keep an eye on speedster Noah Rogers, who boasts an impressive two yards per route run. The offensive line brings experience with over 100 career combined starts, but it ranked 129th in Havoc Allowed, which is a glaring red flag.
Defensively, new coordinator DJ Eliot steps in for Tony Gibson, and Havoc will be his theme. The Wolfpack ranked 17th nationally in Havoc last year and cracked the top 30 in defending the rush.
A shift from the 3-3-5 to a 3-4 looks likely under Eliot, mirroring what he ran at Temple, Kansas and Colorado. It makes sense, especially with four new starters coming into the secondary.
Looking ahead, NC State’s schedule has some quirks with not teams coming off a bye or back-to-back road games.
Week 1 against ECU should be more of a stepping stone, with Week 2 at UVA coming down to who can keep their mistakes in check offensively.
The trip to Notre Dame is tough, but November mostly features home games with Georgia Tech, Florida State and North Carolina lined up in three of the final four weeks. With a road trip to Miami also included, that stretch will be the real test.
Overall, I’m leaning toward the over, but with so many new pieces, it’s tricky to get fully behind a bet just yet.
Pick: Pass
I’m on the under for Syracuse’s win total. I project the Orange with just under four wins.
What bothers me most is the coaching staff. Fran Brown was the defensive backs coach at Georgia, yet the Orange finished 130th nationally in forcing contested catches, 111th in PFF’s Coverage grades and 112th in Pass Success Rate allowed last season.
What is he doing? Brown was supposed to clean up the defense, and it’s only gotten worse.
I don't believe in this coaching staff whatsoever and will be on the Orange's win total under.
Pick: Syracuse Under 5.5 Wins (-155)
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I want to like Virginia. The Cavaliers rank quite highly in TARP, which gave them a bump in my power ratings.
But I don’t love the offense.
Quarterback Chandler Morris pieced together 40 BTTs to 39 TWPs across his past five years. The Hoos brought in some wide receiver talent from the portal, but none of them have flashy numbers.
Running back Xavier Brown will be an interesting watch, as he averaged 4.3 yards after first contact last season. He could create some noise on the ground.
Four of the top five tacklers from last season return on the defense, and the Cavaliers pulled in some defensive line transfers from Alabama and Ohio State. They should be better than last year on that side of the ball.
The problem is that, despite projecting over 6.5 wins (about 7.2), I struggle to support head coach Tony Elliott's teams, which consistently finish outside the top 100 nationally in tackling, Middle 8 and Offensive Momentum Killer.
They’re consistently committing penalties, fumbling the ball and shooting themselves in the foot, with the most significant effect coming on third-down conversions (117th nationally in third-down conversion rate last year).
The Cavaliers are sloppy and, ultimately, not well coached. I can’t put my money behind a team like that.
Pick: Pass
I project 5.6 wins for the Eagles, and I am passing on the team altogether.
One spot I’m looking at is the Sept. 27 game at home against Cal.
Boston College will be coming in off a bye week. Meanwhile, Cal will be on back-to-back travel after playing San Diego State the week before (which will also play that game off a bye week). That’s a lot of miles for the Bears.
I will be looking to buy Boston College in that spot.
Pick: Boston College ATS vs. Cal (Sept. 27)
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Surprisingly, I project 5.8 wins for the Golden Bears this season. I think it’s because of their relatively weak schedule (61st nationally).
The Bears lost plenty of production on both sides of the football. Their only big-time returner on offense is Trond Grizzell, who caught 27 balls last season for 401 yards. They lost six of their top seven tacklers from last year’s defense.
The numbers keep getting worse on defense for head coach Justin Wilcox, which isn’t good considering he’s a defensive-minded coach. There are very few coaches more squarely on the hot seat than him.
All that said, there are plenty of winnable games on the schedule. I’m not rushing to the window, but I’d consider playing over 5.5 wins.
Pick: Pass (Lean Over 5.5 Wins)
I’m not a big fan of head coach Jake Dickert, who is supposed to be a defensive-minded coach, yet can’t fix the Wake Forest defense.
The Demon Deacons finished in the bottom-10 nationally in almost every meaningful advanced stat, including Defensive Finishing Drives, PFF’s tackling grades, etc. There are some decent players on the defense with experience, but Dickert hasn’t been able to produce, and I don’t expect him to do it this season.
I like the new offensive coordinator, Rob Ezell, who did well at South Alabama. The Jaguars ranked second nationally in Standard Downs Success Rate, fourth in Explosiveness, sixth in Line Yards, and 11th in Finishing Drives. I’d love it if Wake could get any of that production.
I project 5.2 wins for the Demon Deacons this season, so I project some value on over 4.5 wins. However, I’m not betting it because of Dickert and the defense.
Pick: Pass (Lean Over 4.5 Wins)
I loathe Stanford’s schedule. It’s the 10th-hardest schedule in the nation. I project it with three wins overall and 1.8 conference wins.
Losing defensive end David Bailey was brutal. I don’t know who the quarterback will be because they’re all so young and inexperienced.
I also don’t believe Frank Reich is the long-term answer for the team. I think he’s a holdover coach for general manager Andrew Luck.
The Cardinal have three bye weeks on the schedule, but they travel to SMU and Cal after each bye, and I don’t expect them to win either game.
I'm having trouble finding four wins on the schedule. I can barely name three. I might be looking for an alternate win total of under 3 for Stanford.
Pick: Stanford Alt. Win Total Under 3
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