The AAC is gone. The American Conference is here.
There's a lot to like about the American in 2025. In terms of conference futures, six teams sit between +300 and +700 to take home the American Championship, while six more boast odds of +15000 or longer.
Action Network expert and "G5 Deep Dive" co-host Joshua "Duck" Nunn previewed that conference and gave out his top win totals and futures plays for the 2025 season.
So, whether you're wondering if Tulane (+300) can make its mark as the favorite or trying to figure out how to bet Temple (+20000), we have you covered.
Let's take a look at our 2025 American Conference Preview and college football picks for the upcoming NCAAF season.
2025 American Conference Odds
| Team | Odds |
|---|---|
| Tulane | +100 |
| Navy | +425 |
| UTSA | +900 |
| Memphis | +1100 |
| Army | +1200 |
| South Florida | +1400 |
| North Texas | +1500 |
| East Carolina | +1600 |
| Tulsa | +2800 |
| Rice | +4000 |
| Florida Atlantic | +4000 |
| Charlotte | +4000 |
| Temple | +4000 |
All odds via DraftKings as of Wednesday, Aug 6.
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Expecting Army to just reload and repeat last year’s magic run would be a bit unfair.
Last season, a bunch of stars had to align perfectly for that to happen. They had Bryson Daily at quarterback, and he was a true playmaker who really knew the system, made smart reads and barely made mistakes. His execution was top-notch.
The running backs also blew expectations out of the water. Kanye Udoh, in particular, was explosive, and the slotbacks added serious firepower.
The offensive line was a unit, winning the Joe Moore Award, and the schedule that year was definitely favorable for piling up wins.
That said, this season looks different.
Dewayne Coleman is the new QB, and the jury’s still out on him. He might be a stronger passer than Daily, but we haven’t seen him handle a full workload yet.
Losing Udoh is huge after he did so much for the offense. Jake Rendina looks like the frontrunner to fill that B back role, but the slotback spot is definitely thin.
The running back room seems decent, but the receiving and tight end groups are pretty inexperienced. Luckily for the Black Knights, they aren't about throwing it a ton, but they’ll probably find someone to step up.
The offensive line takes a significant hit, losing both tackles and a guard, with no portal players to dip into. On top of that, offensive line coach Matt Drinkall is no longer on staff after leaving to become the head coach at Central Michigan.
Some bump back toward the mean seems likely. It might not be a massive offensive drop-off, but this isn't a reload either.
Defensively, Army returns five starters and six of its top 12 tacklers from last year. There are still gaps, especially in the front seven, which is always undersized at a service academy and relies heavily on rotation.
Losing linebacker Elo Modozie to Georgia is a setback with no portal option to replace him. The secondary looks OK, returning five contributors, but it lost three key players.
The schedule is also less forgiving.
The Black Knights kick off at Kansas State, which is no cakewalk. North Texas has been improving, especially on defense, and games at East Carolina and UAB won’t be easy either. Traveling south is always tricky for Army, and trips to Tulane Air Force, and UTSA add up to tough road environments.
To top it off, there’s the neutral-site Navy game at the end of the year, which is always a hard-fought battle.
Ultimately, Army lost some offensive catalysts and faces a tougher schedule. That near-flawless efficiency from last season probably won’t repeat. Given all that, I’m betting the Black Knights to finish under 7.5 wins.
Pick: Army Under 7.5 Wins
Overall, I’m pretty optimistic about the hire of new head coach Tim Albin. If the administration shows some patience, I think this rebuild can really take off.
Let’s be clear: this is a full program overhaul, and Albin seems like the guy to get it done.
The offensive line looks better than it did after Biff Poggi left, which is critical because they struggled to run the ball and allowed too much Havoc up front last season. Allowing 34 sacks and 78 tackles for loss just can’t happen again.
They made some portal moves, trying to patch the roster with the pieces available. Guys like E. Jai Mason and Ta'ir Brooks came over from the FCS level at receiver, and that should help to some degree.
Also, keep an eye on junior tight end Jake Young, who might end up being the key to unlocking their passing game.
Reports say there’s a three-way battle for the quarterback spot, but Albin is keeping it tight-lipped. My gut says Grayson Loftis might have the edge, but honestly, there’s no telling what’s cooking in that QB room.
Defensively, expect a physical, Ohio-style approach. From what I’m seeing, they have plenty of bodies, especially in the linebacker room, thanks to all the Ohio transfers.
The secondary looks decent on paper as well, but none of these guys have really played together, so chemistry is a big question mark. We won’t really know how effective they’ll be until they hit live game situations.
The special teams are a mess, but I trust Albin to sort that out before the season really gets going.
The nonconference schedule is brutal with App State, North Carolina and Georgia lined up. I don’t see them winning any of those games. And if FCS Monmouth shows up ready to play, Charlotte could be caught off guard.
This is definitely a rebuilding year. The Albin hire has long-term promise, but right now, there’s just too much unknown and not much to get excited about with Charlotte. I’m staying on the sidelines for now.
Pick: Pass
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That bowl win last season was huge for East Carolina. ECU and NC State have a regional rivalry that doesn’t get played often, and the fans really don’t like each other.
ECU winning that game was massive, and now, they’re kicking off this season facing each other in Week 1, which makes things even more interesting.
I really wanted to get behind this ECU team and fully buy into what they’re building.
But as I dug deeper, I started to wonder if the Pirates really turned a corner after Blake Harrell took over or if it was the fact they played some pretty weak teams in Temple, FAU, Tulsa and North Texas to build momentum.
I’m just not convinced last year was a true breakthrough for the program. There are a ton of question marks heading into this season. Sure, there’s upside, but there are a lot of unknowns.
The defense was a mess at times last year. They gave up 311 rushing yards to Charlotte and 5.5 yards per carry over the last three weeks of the season.
Offensive turnovers made matters worse, and they blew 16-0 leads to both App State and Liberty.
Last season, the secondary was big, physical and active against the run, and they held up well in pass coverage early on. That entire group is gone now, so I expect the defense will need time to gel before it can be reliable.
On offense, I actually like Katin Houser returning at quarterback. He showed a lot last season, and as long as he cuts down on turnovers and matures as a passer, he could take a step forward.
They do lose key receivers and Rahjai Harris, their lead running back, who was a major piece last year. They’ve got a couple of running backs back, plus Parker Jenkins coming in from Houston, so the backfield should be OK.
They want to push the tempo with an Air Raid-style offense, throwing the ball fast, but they need to solidify some receiver spots.
They brought in some players from Oklahoma, South Carolina and Penn State, but those guys are mostly unproven with limited game experience.
The offensive line needs work, especially the interior. They’ve brought in some transfers from the portal who haven’t played in this offense before.
Last year’s execution was just poor. The Pirates struggled on third down and in the red zone, often settling for field goals or coming up empty. Cleaning those things up will be vital if they want to take that next step.
I was initially thinking ECU could be a fun long shot in the conference, and I liked the idea of going over 6.5 wins. But when I really looked at the schedule, it’s tough.
They have to visit NC State, and BYU comes to town. They also head to Coastal Carolina, which is no cakewalk. The regional games against App State and Liberty last year went badly, so that’s a warning sign.
They also face Army, Tulane, Memphis and UTSA in conference play. Army will be on short rest for one game, but this ECU team could be scrappy, like we’ve come to expect.
But the jump in competition is tough. To make a real run, they’ll need to beat Army and win on the road at Tulane and against other strong teams. Last year, they had chances but failed to capitalize.
Ultimately, I need another year before I feel confident taking a firm positive stance on ECU. There’s potential, but there's also plenty to prove.
Pick: Pass
FAU’s offense will be cooking this season, but the defense could be atrocious. We’re talking about a squad that could realistically drop 38 or 45 points and still lose by multiple touchdowns because the defense might be that rough.
Early in the summer, I bet the win total under at 4.5, but this is probably the only time all year I’m going under on anything FAU-related.
By week-to-week measures, you just have to take the over. The offense is going to be electric, fast-paced and pass-happy, and we’re going to see fireworks regularly.
Head coach Zach Kittley is back running his system but now with zero restrictions. He has full control of the offense, which means we can expect high-scoring games from Day 1.
Caden Veltkamp takes over at quarterback, and he knows the playbook inside and out. Plus, there’s a solid backup in Zach Gibson, who comes in via the portal.
Running back-wise, the room looks healthier, too. Guys like Xavier Terrell and Jamari Sands will share carries, so if they want to sneak some runs in, they’ve got enough talent to make it work.
The receiving corps is fairly deep as well.
Jabari Smith is solid, Quincy Brown is a reliable target, and JR Wilson Jr. from Virginia adds another playmaker. Plus, Easton Messer comes in from Western Kentucky, so there are plenty of weapons to throw to.
The offensive line is the big question mark. Last year was rough, and now the O-line is basically being pieced together through junior college guys and some transfers at the tackle spots. It’s a completely different system, so cohesion is going to take time.
If they can get that figured out, though, this offense could be downright dangerous.
Defensively, the real issues start to show.
The Owls brought in some new faces from UTEP, Purdue, Kansas, Wake Forest and Liberty, but all of them were reserves at their schools. The unit is pretty raw, and the secondary, especially, remains a question mark.
Last year’s defensive line was brutal, giving up 5.0 yards per carry on the ground and allowing 400 rushing yards in a couple of games. The American Conference ran right through them.
Last year, FAU’s offense ran at a slower pace with fewer possessions per game. This year, it'll speed things up. We’re looking at 16-17 possessions a game, and that means the defense will be under intense pressure and will probably be exposed more often than not.
Looking at the schedule, the Owls have some winnable games, including Florida A&M and FIU.
But then they have Memphis, South Florida, Navy, Tulane, UCF and ECU in conference play. Those are all tougher matchups against teams that probably outclass FAU right now.
They also open the season on the road against Maryland, which won’t be easy, and I’m skeptical they win that one.
FAU will be expected to sweep FIU, Rice, UAB and Tulsa in conference play if they want to contend for a bowl, but with this defense, I’m not so sure it can pull that off.
All in all, FAU’s going to be fun to watch because of how explosive its offense is shaping up to be. I definitely plan on betting a lot of overs on its games early before the market adjusts.
But defensively, this team looks like it could struggle big time, which is why I’m cautious about backing them to make a big leap in the standings this year.
Pick: Florida Atlantic Under 4.5 Wins
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Memphis is definitely a high-variance team this year. It has seen a lot of movement through the portal, and there are a ton of new faces woven into every layer of the defense.
But here’s the thing: these players aren’t coming in cold. Many of them have meaningful snaps under their belts from previous stops, so they bring experience.
The challenge will be how quickly they gel as a unit, but I like that these aren’t just rookies thrust into the fire. They know FBS football.
Given that, yeah, there’s some unpredictability, but Memphis could surprise us.
The schedule throws in a few easier spots early on in Chattanooga, Georgia State and Troy — all games Memphis should be favored in and expected to take. That first chunk of the season gives it time to shake the rust off and get things in order.
The Sept. 20th game is also a major look-ahead spot for Arkansas, which will look to catch its breath before turning its attention to Notre Dame. I had this one marked in red ink way back in the summer, and I’m pretty sure Memphis had it circled, too.
The Tigers will be ready to roll for this matchup. It’ll be interesting to see where the line lands, but if it’s anything over a touchdown, Memphis feels like a solid play to me.
After Arkansas, Memphis gets FAU, Tulsa and UAB for more winnable matchups that set up the potential for a strong start overall.
That said, as the season rolls on, there might be some spots where the hype gets a bit overblown and fading Memphis makes sense, like in games against Rice, Tulane and East Carolina.
I also think Memphis will be particularly fired up for the Navy game at the end since the Midshipmen beat them last year.
At the end of the day, I’d peg Memphis as a nine-win team and definitely in the conversation for a conference title. I’m not locked in one way or the other, but based on the schedule and how things set up, I’m leaning toward the over here.
Pick: Memphis Over 8.5 Wins (Lean)
Navy’s defense is dealing with so much attrition right now, so it’s really tough to stay consistent.
On top of that, the offensive line has a bunch of missing pieces, and replacing those guys isn’t something the Midshipmen can just do overnight. It’s going to take game reps to figure out what they really have.
That’s a big deal because of the unique style Navy runs — the wing-T mixed with option concepts. Once teams got some game film on this offense, they started adapting faster, which cut down Navy’s explosiveness.
You could really see that shift in the back half of the season. Early on, Navy was making big plays and moving the ball well. But as the season wore on and opponents caught on, the Middies had to grind out drives instead.
Looking ahead to 2025, Navy’s schedule gets tougher. It'll face stronger defensive teams and offenses that can actually put points on the board.
That means the Middies are going to have to be sharp, matching their opponents score-for-score and making key stops. And keep in mind, it’s not the same lineup out there anymore.
Overall, I expect it’ll be a tougher road.
As for the win total, I’m kind of leaning under, but I haven’t pulled the trigger because there are better options out there.
Navy is going to need a lot of things to break its way if it wants to repeat last year’s success. It’s doable, but it definitely won’t be easy.
Pick: Navy Under 8.5 Wins (Lean)
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I’m showing a little interest in the over here.
I’m still a bit cautious about the quarterback spot, but I trust the offense, especially with head coach Eric Morris running the show.
I think North Texas sits comfortably in that second tier but has a real shot to break into the top tier if defensive coordinator Skyler Cassity manages to fix the defense.
At around 20-1 odds, I’m willing to take a small flyer on the Mean Green winning the conference. It’s just some couch change for what could be a nice payoff.
The key here is trusting the offense. I think Drew Mestemaker’s going to end up winning the QB job, and they have enough depth behind him if injuries hit.
Mestemaker is an intriguing story, too. He didn’t even start in high school, mostly playing punter and safety. He walked on and looked solid in the bowl game, so I’m betting they’re onto something here with him.
They lost some pieces on offense, but the core is still there.
Defense is definitely the big question mark, though. It’s really on Cassity, the Sam Houston transfers, and a few other new additions to come through and make stops.
If Cassity can engineer a schematic leap, this team could look very different. I really love that hire.
The schedule is another big positive here. Out of the top eight teams projected, North Texas only plays Army on the road, and I’m pretty skeptical of the Black Knights this year.
UNT gets Navy at home, which is huge, and that comes right before playing Notre Dame. It also dodges Memphis and Tulane, hosts USF, Navy and UTSA, and has seven home games total.
UAB and Rice could be down later in the year, and it closes with Temple, so there’s definitely a chance for a late-season run.
Combine that with the schedule and defensive upside, and 20-1 looks like a pretty low-risk shot.
So yeah, give me some Mean Green. They owe me one after that Army game last year — I’ll never forget Chandler Morris throwing interception after interception near the goal line, and even when they did finally cross the goal line, it wasn’t called a touchdown. That game haunts me. But North Texas as a long shot? Count me in.
Pick: North Texas Over 6.5 Wins (Lean) · North Texas to Win American (+2000)
Scott Abell’s offense coming over from Davidson is definitely something different. It’s a dynamic, inverted triple option out of the pistol and the gun, which you don’t see every day.
They mix in a lot of “window dressing” and motion to keep defenses guessing, and it’s clever because it opens up chances not just for the running backs and the quarterback, but for receivers to carry the rock, too.
The key, though, is getting the offense to really grasp the reads and cues during fall camp. That’s a unique system for these guys, so the timing probably won’t be flawless right away.
But once they get comfortable, it’s a scheme designed to possess the ball, move the chains steadily and keep the defense on the sidelines as much as possible.
Looking back at Rice last season, I think it was closer than most people realize. Some of its losses came against the tougher teams in the American, but it also racked up some impressive wins. The Owls beat UTSA, hung tough with Tulane, and took down Navy and South Florida.
This felt like an emerging team with some real promise.
The big questions for the Owls seem to be on defense.
They’re thin, especially in the secondary, and the front seven just doesn’t have much depth. With some new pieces from the transfer portal and young guys stepping up, they'll likely struggle against the run early on.
Still, I expect Rice to be scrappy. As the season progresses and it gets some live game reps under its belt, I think we’ll see this offense really start to click, especially against teams like Prairie View, Charlotte and FAU in the heart of the schedule.
There are probably five or six winnable games. The Owls could take their lumps against the top-tier American teams, but they should be competitive and dangerous as a 'dog in the spots that matter.
I’d keep an eye on Week 1 at Louisiana — that game could catch the Ragin' Cajuns off guard since they won’t have much, if any, FBS tape on this unique offense.
And further down the road, there may be other matchups like UAB — which has a notably weak run defense — where Rice’s style could cause some trouble.
From a betting angle, I’m definitely looking for some opportunities to back Rice against the spread this season.
Pick: Rice Over 3.5 Wins (Lean) · Rice +14 vs. Louisana (Week 1 · Lean)
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The defense is definitely a concern for South Florida, but I really like what it did in the transfer portal. The Bulls added Dre Butler from Charlotte and Jacob Merrifield from FAU, both on the defensive line.
Plus, Josh Celiscar joins from Texas A&M, adding more size and depth up front.
They also picked up three decent Group of Five linebackers, so it’s clear they’re making an effort to shore things up defensively. I expect some improvement on that side of the ball, but a lot will depend on health.
The drop-off at quarterback if Byrum Brown goes down is huge and could really limit what the offense can do. And that’s before even factoring in losing the top three running backs or the top three receivers.
But with Brown healthy and a defense forming, the Bulls could really pose a threat against Boise State. When the Broncos traveled south to kick off the season against Georgia Southern last year, they gave up 45 points in an 11-point win.
It faces a tough schedule, with road trips to North Texas, Memphis and Navy looming.
There’s even a chance it starts the season 0-3 in nonconference games against Boise State, Florida and Miami, which might actually make the long-shot futures — like a 7-1 play for the conference title — a decent bet.
Losing three early games wouldn’t hurt conference play and could allow them to weather the tough start.
The low win totals are there for a reason; the schedule is brutal, and those road trips aren’t easy. However, Brown is back healthy at quarterback and the defense appears to be improving.
That said, if South Florida can pull off some tough wins away from home in conference play, I think it could stay in the mix for the American Conference title. It’s definitely a team to keep an eye on.
Pick: USF +8 vs. Boise State (Week 1)
Temple’s offensive scheme is about to get a serious makeover this season.
We’re talking power-spread sets with a big dose of 21 and 22 personnel. Think a lot of tight ends and hefty bodies on the field — a far cry from what it ran last year under Stan Drayton.
Enter offensive coordinator Tyler Walker from Montana State, who recorded a 68% run rate last season. Walker and this offense bring a more physical edge, but there’s also a methodical approach.
Last year, Walker ran nearly 37 seconds between plays, grinding out the clock as a power-run team. I expect head coach K.C. Keeler to lean into that style early on to keep their defense off the field, especially since that unit struggled big time last year.
Speaking of defense, don’t expect instant fireworks.
The Owls will rotate guys on the defensive line, but the pass rush has question marks. Last season, Temple posted just 14 sacks and 46 tackles for loss. It'll need to improve here to give the secondary a bit of relief.
That’s where Brian Smith, coming over from Rice, could make a difference. Smith helped Rice tighten up its pass defense gradually over five years, so Temple’s pass defense could follow a similar trend.
Keeler already is painting a different picture in the locker room, emphasizing the “Temple Tough” mentality.
The vibe, attitude, and way they practice have all improved, which is huge. Confidence like that is contagious, and early schedule spots — like trips to UMass and a home game against Howard — could be prime opportunities for a couple of wins.
On offense, the key looks to be the offensive line. Keeler said his O-line improved more from the first to the 15th spring practice than any he's coached before. Maybe that’s coach speak, maybe it’s real, but he’s clearly confident in the group.
As long as the Owls can get the running game clicking and extend drives, Temple could be in decent shape offensively. Don’t expect a high-flying scoring attack but rather a grind-it-out approach that keeps the chains moving and the defense rested.
Overall, Temple looks like a different team coming in. It'll be more physical, a bit slower-paced and definitely tougher in terms of attitude and culture.
It might not blow up the scoreboard or cover a huge number, but unders are the smart play here. In fact, I have already bet the Temple vs. UMass under in Week 1 due to the slow pace and steady ground game.
Pick: Temple vs. UMass Under 51.5 (Week 1)
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Early this summer, I tossed a little action on Tulane’s win total under 8.5. When Jake Retzlaff announced his transfer to the Green Wave, I didn’t bail or hedge. I’m still pretty comfortable holding that spot.
The coaching staff made it clear that the quarterback battle is wide open.
On the other side, Tulane’s defense took a big hit, especially up front.
Losing guys like Matthew Fobbs-White, Adin Huntington and Corey Platt Jr. is a major blow. Plus, Parker Petersen and Jesus Machado are also gone. These were cornerstone players in that defensive front seven that carried them at times last season.
They also lost some offensive pieces in quarterback Darian Mensah and Makhi Hughes, but the defense is where the biggest gaps appear. There are quite a few holes to patch on defense where experience just walked out the door.
This is a team basically retooling what was the very foundation of its success. Defense was the crux, especially against tougher competition the last couple of years.
Looking at the schedule, Tulane has three Power 4 teams in nonconference play — Duke, Northwestern and Ole Miss — and I’m skeptical Tulane cruises through like before.
I already faded the Green Wave in Week 1 with Northwestern at +7.5 in hand. I think the Wildcats can come down to New Orleans and give them a serious test and maybe even pull off a win.
I wouldn’t be shocked if Tulane stumbles to a 1-3 start before conference play even kicks in.
Then comes East Carolina and Army at home in games Tulane should win, but they're not a walk in the park. Beyond that, the road schedule looks tough with back-to-back trips to UTSA and Memphis.
That said, this doesn’t mean Tulane falls apart. I see it as a contender in the American, but it might fall just shy of the conference title game. A solid 8-4 season feels right.
I’m on the under for Tulane’s win total, not because I think the Green Wave crash and burn, but because replacing that defensive production is a big question mark.
They’ll be good, but maybe not quite as dominant as we’ve seen the last couple of seasons.
Pick: Tulane Under 8.5 Wins
Watching Tulsa last season was just downright disappointing. After that ECU loss, the team totally checked out in terma of attitude, body language and effort. They just didn’t care anymore.
Defensively, Tulsa allowed a whopping 5.8 yards per carry in league games, gave up a 66% completion rate with 38 touchdown passes and managed only 19 sacks all season.
What's worse is the Golden Hurricane got lit up for 45 points or more multiple times.
They were basically on the same level as Utah State and New Mexico, right at the bottom of the FBS barrel.
Tulsa did bring in some defensive linemen and linebackers through the portal, which might shore things up slightly. But it’s only marginal improvement.
The secondary still looks painfully thin, and I have zero confidence in the starting group. I just don’t see enough talent there to change those ugly defensive numbers or boost the win column.
Offensively, things are shifting a bit. They’re going with a fast-paced offense under the Tre Lamb system, but it won’t have the consistent vertical passing attack we saw in past years.
Instead, expect a grind-it-out ground game, some heavier personnel in formations and a mix of gun spread with a couple of tight ends sprinkled in.
They do have some backs worth noting: Ajay Allen is solid, plus Sevion Morrison from Kansas and Dominic Richardson from Baylor add some depth.
The offensive line looks like a total patchwork. In fact, just getting up to average blocking would be a win.
If the offensive line can get its act together — which is a big if — that ground game might help keep them on the field longer and give the defense a breather against weaker opponents.
Speaking of the offense, Jeremiah Ballard has to come through at receiver. He was solid at UTEP, but last year, he basically disappeared.
Defensively, the issues are glaring. The Golden Hurricane were bad on third downs, in the red zone and stopping explosive plays. They’re just not there yet.
Plus, the schedule doesn’t do them any favors. Six games against Army, Navy, Tulane, Memphis, Oregon State and Oklahoma State won't be competitive. That puts them in a tough spot from the jump.
Realistically, I see Tulsa picking up wins in its first two games against Abilene Christian and New Mexico State with hopes it does so convincingly. Then, Week 3 against Navy would be a major fade for me.
If the Hurricane catch Tulane at home in a weird spot as about 25-point underdogs, maybe there’s a value bet there, but the rest of the season just looks bleak. ECU and FAU? No thanks. Oregon State’s probably going to run all over them.
That said, if Tulsa sticks with this Lamb hire and gives him some time, it could pay off down the line. This is a true reset year with new schemes and a fresh start. But with the current roster, racking up four wins will be an uphill battle.
Pick: Pass
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It’s tough to see this UAB team hitting bowl eligibility this season, especially when so many of those winnable games are on the road: at UConn, at Rice, at Tulsa and at FAU. That’s not an easy stretch by any means.
Head coach Trent Dilfer’s message hasn’t exactly fired anyone up, either. We heard him speak at American Conference media days, and it came off a bit uninspiring. He spent a lot of time talking about himself and his past achievements, which doesn’t really make me want to rally behind this program.
I have a feeling UAB might be a year too slow in moving on from him. This program used to carry some pride, and it feels like injecting fresh energy would do a world of good.
I’m not completely dismissing the roster. They have some players who could be solid contributors.
Jevon Jackson, the running back they picked up from UTEP, has the potential to be a bell cow. He's someone who could bring some spark and wiggle to the backfield that they can lean on heavily.
On the receiving end, they’ve got four pass-catchers who could either shine or disappoint. Honestly, it’s hard to tell how that will shake out just yet.
The offensive line is also a mess. That group needs time to gel, and with the tough schedule early on, they won’t have much room for error.
All in all, there’s just not much propping this team up right now. I’m not nearly convinced UAB will hit the over on its win total, and a bowl appearance feels out of reach.
There’s a lot they have to overcome, and at this point, the outlook feels pretty grim.
Pick: UAB Under 4.5 Wins (Lean)
UTSA’s offense is one of the most impressive at the Group of Five level.
It really locked down every position group, and its offensive line depth is something you just don’t see often in this league. That alone is a huge luxury.
But here’s something that hasn’t been getting enough attention: the tight end room.
The Roadrunners have four tight ends all standing 6-foot-5 or taller, weighing in at 240 pounds or more, and they’re all solid pass catchers.
This group creates real headaches for defenses because they can move the chains in the passing game in ways many other teams can’t.
Who among Texas State, Temple, Rice, Tulane, Charlotte and ECU is actually going to slow down those matchup nightmares? The defensive schemes confronting UTSA are going to be stretched thin trying to cover those tight ends and their overall offensive weapons.
Defensively, I expect some improvement this season.
Penalties were a massive problem last year, as UTSA racked up 113 penalties for over 1,000 yards lost. That’s not just a stat; it directly cost them games against Rice and Tulsa, where those undisciplined moments turned what could’ve been wins into losses.
If the coaching staff can isolate that issue and instill more discipline this offseason, it could make a huge difference. Cleaning that up would really allow this team to take a big step forward.
I like UTSA’s chances to run the table — or close to it — in conference play. The Roadrunners have a very strong shot at winning the American Conference this year.
They’re solid all around, have few weaknesses, and their schedule sets up nicely for them to rack up wins. I’d lean toward the over on their win total without hesitation.
Pick: UTSA to Win American (+500) · UTSA Over 7.5 Wins (Lean)
