LSU vs Arkansas Odds, Prediction & Picks | Week 4 SEC Betting Guide

Will the real LSU please stand up?

After opening the season in disappointing fashion against Florida State, Brian Kelly’s LSU team has gone on to outscore its next two opponents — Grambling and Mississippi State — by a combined score of 113-24.

Jayden Daniels and Malik Nabers are just seven days removed from a historic performance against the Bulldogs.

Arkansas is looking to get back on track after blowing a 14-point lead to BYU in which the Cougars scored 17 straight to end the game. And with star running back Raheim "Rocket" Sanders questionable to play, the task doesn’t get much easier with this trip to Baton Rouge.

A convincing win would go a long way in proving that LSU’s preseason goals are still attainable, but can the Razorbacks defense do enough to keep things close?

Let's dive into the odds and make a pick for Arkansas vs. LSU in this college football betting preview for Saturday, Sept. 23.

It may have taken three weeks, but LSU finally looks like the team it was billed to be. A 41-14 blowout of an SEC opponent has a way of silencing some of the doubters.

Daniels flashed his Heisman potential with a school-record 88.2% completion percentage on 30-of-34 passing against Mississippi State. His 361 yards passing also marks his best day through the air at LSU.

Nabers could not be contained, catching all 13 of his targets for 239 yards and two touchdowns. The impressive passing display pushed the Tigers' Pass Success ranking up to 32nd.

The LSU offensive line has been a big part of the offense’s success, ranking 12th in Havoc Allowed and 18th in Line Yards. Even a run game without a certified go-to back has thrived behind the line, with the team collectively averaging more than five yards a carry and ranking ninth in Rush Success.

Defense was a top concern entering last week’s matchup with the Bulldogs, but the Tigers more than held their own. Mississippi State netted only seven yards on its first 16 plays before ultimately ending the day with a season-low 201 yards.

Run defense remains a potential liability against the Hogs after Grambling ran for 163 yards on 23 carries in Week 2, but the Tigers did hold Mississippi State to a season-low 94 rushing yards last week.

It doesn’t get much more difficult than traveling to Death Valley at night to kick off SEC play a week removed from blowing a double-digit lead at home.

That’s what Arkansas must try to do, however, after suffering a 38-31 loss against BYU.

Quarterback KJ Jefferson had his worst game of the season against the Cougars, throwing a second-half interception and losing one of two fumbles on the day. He wasn’t helped by an offensive line that allowed four sacks and six tackles for loss.

Despite some inconsistencies from Jefferson and an injury to Sanders at running back, the Razorbacks have found success running the ball. Arkansas ranks 33rd in Rush Success and ran for 177 yards against the Cougars last week.

AJ Green will likely get the nod as the starting tailback this week after Sam Pittman sounded unsure of Sanders’ status. Green rushed for 86 yards on just nine carries against the Cougars, including scoring one of his two touchdowns on a 55-yard rush.

Even though the Arkansas defense allowed 38 points to BYU, the Razorbacks defense remains the strength of this team. Arkansas sits top-10 in both Rush and Pass Success.

The Razorbacks have been even better at generating Havoc, ranking second nationally. Arkansas is third in the country with 30 tackles for loss and ranks seventh with 12 sacks on the year.

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Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Arkansas and LSU match up statistically:

Arkansas Offense vs. LSU Defense

	Offense	Defense	Edge
Rush Success	33	51
Line Yards	38	83
Pass Success	65	77
Havoc	67	62
Finishing Drives	22	109
Quality Drives	76	76

LSU Offense vs. Arkansas Defense

	Offense	Defense	Edge
Rush Success	9	6
Line Yards	18	25
Pass Success	32	7
Havoc	12	2
Finishing Drives	12	28
Quality Drives	2	63

Pace of Play / Other

PFF Tackling	47	109
PFF Coverage	58	111
Special Teams SP+	78	72
Middle 8	2	37
Seconds per Play	29.2 (98)	26.1 (56)
Rush Rate	60.3% (24)	51.4% (86)

This matchup comes down to whether or not the LSU offense is significantly better than Arkansas' defense. Daniels has thrived behind his stout offensive line that will now see one of the better pass rushes in the SEC.

But while the Razorbacks have a strong pass rush, they’re not as strong in coverage, with PFF ranking them just 58th. Between Nabers and Brian Thomas Jr., the LSU passing game is clearly clicking right now.

Conversely, Arkansas’ offense hasn’t done much to inspire confidence. Maason Smith and Harold Perkins should be able to neutralize the dual-threat abilities of Jefferson, and the Razorbacks are likely to still be without Sanders — or at least a fully effective version.

Throw in the fact this will be a night game in Baton Rouge and that Arkansas has been one of the most undisciplined teams in the country with the eighth-most penalties in the FBS, and I like the Tigers to open their home SEC slate in grand fashion.