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College Football Expert Betting Picks: Our Staff’s 10 Favorite Week 14 Bets

Dec 01, 2018 5:40 AM EST
  • Our 10 college football experts give their favorite betting picks for Week 14 of the 2018 season.
  • All 10 bets involve one of the 10 conference championship games this weekend, including one on Friday night.
  • You'll find a few underdogs and a variety of over/unders worth taking a deeper look at.

Can you believe it’s Week 14 already? Conference championship weekend has finally arrived.

We have a number of unusually high spreads this weekend, but that doesn’t mean an upset can’t happen. While conference championship double digit underdogs have gone just 6-21 straight-up since 2005, betting on all 28 would have given you a +22.2% ROI.

That said, they have lost 14 straight since 2011 when Southern Miss (+12) upset Houston in the Conference USA title.

Regardless, college football bettors never need certain matchups or spreads to get excited about the weekend.

To help narrow down your final bets, we asked ten of our staffers for their one favorite bet. Hopefully, the supporting information can help guide you to a winner or two that wasn’t on your radar.

We will get things started with one wager for Friday night — and then go through the remaining nine on Saturday’s card, including multiple bets for Alabama-Georgia and Ohio State-Northwestern. Oh, and don’t forget to sign up for our Saturday contest — we’re giving away $1,000 and it’s free to enter!

We hope you at least pick up one key nugget of information  that can help you make a more informed wagering decision. I think you’ll find plenty. Let’s jump in.

*All odds pulled overnight from Bookmaker/CRIS on Nov. 29.
**YTD: 79-81-1 -2.95 units


Ken Barkley: Washington -5 (vs. Utah)

Santa Clara, CA — Friday, 8 p.m. ET on FOX

We’ve waited all year for Washington to achieve some balance on offense. The problems began really even before the season when it was announced that tight end Hunter Bryant would miss the entire year. A sloppy loss to Auburn in the opener featured miscues in the red zone in what could have been a win. Myles Gaskin also missed some time with an injury and never really looked 100%.

Washington won, but went 3-9 ATS this season and failed to live up to market expectations. The market got so down on the Huskies that they became an underdog in the Apple Cup against a team they typically wreck. And they responded by playing their best game of the year, led by the aforementioned Gaskin (who finally looked healthy) and Bryant (who did recently return).

On the other side of the ball, the defense has been top 10 in S&P+ every single week there’s been a ranking. This is the Washington we all expected, finally, and just in the nick of time to face a Utah team that will play hard and is well-coached, but is just totally out-classed here.

Gimme the Huskies at anything under a touchdown.

Danny Donahue: UAB +1.5 (vs. Middle Tennessee)

Murfreesboro, TN — Saturday, 1:30 p.m. ET on CBSSN

This game is an exact rematch of the one played just eight days prior in which Middle Tennessee absolutely dominated, winning 27-3. Well, it’s an exact rematch except for the point spread.

Last week, UAB was listed as a three-point favorite, but with that game still fresh on the mind, it was Middle Tennessee that opened at -3 for the rematch. It’s since been bet down to -1.5 despite MTSU getting the slight majority of bets, but nonetheless, this is a big time overreaction.

If you want to tell me that last week’s game inched these teams slightly closer to one another, I can live with that. But a 5-6 point swing from a one game sample when we’re already 12 games into the season? Please. It’s sports. Good teams have lousy games sometimes. Plus, UAB played without a handful of starters that should return this week.

I’ll take all the free points I can get and bank on the Blazers putting up more than 89 yards of total offense this time.

PJ Walsh: UAB-MTSU Under 45

Murfreesboro, TN — Saturday, 1:30 p.m. ET on CBSSN

You have the familiarity factor since these teams just faced each other last week. But more importantly, the weather will be very conducive to an under play here, as the forecast calls for 15-25 mph winds. Since 2005, December games with double-digit average wind speeds have gone under 25 of 38 times, per Bet Labs.

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Credit:

Joshua S. Kelly-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Clemson head coach Dabo Swinney

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SCHEDULE
OPEN
CURR
# BETS
59
-4
59
-3.5
64.5
-11
68
-8
52
-3
53.5
-4
48
PK
47.5
+1.5
50.5
-7.5
50
-7
-2.5
44
-2.5
43.5
55
-4.5
54
-3
-3
54.5
-2.5
55
-6
66.5
-5.5
68.5
48
-11
49.5
-12
-2.5
73
-5
73.5
67.5
-5
60
-3
-3
53.5
-2.5
51.5
-1.5
57.5
-1
60
55
-3.5
55.5
-3
61
-3.5
60
-4
41
-2
40.5
PK
56.5
-3
55
-3.5
-3
47
-4
48
-6.5
55
-3.5
55
54.5
-5
54.5
-3.5
-7
74
-1.5
68
54.5
-6.5
55
-3.5
50.5
-6
50.5
-7.5
-6.5
55
-4
54.5
-2
58.5
-1.5
60
56
-11
55
-12
79
-13.5
81
-14
-6.5
53.5
-5
53.5
-6.5
52
-6.5
52
48
-1.5
48
-3
-10
71
-8
74
45
-6.5
46
-7
58.5
-4.5
58.5
-5.5
-5
44.5
-7
44
-8
54.5
-7.5
55.5
48
-4
47.5
-6.5
58.5
-5
58
-6.5
58
-10.5
58
-11.5

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