Welcome to Week 12 of the college football season. Another week means another opportunity to find some value on a couple of underdogs.
For the eighth straight season on our college football betting podcast, Big Bets on Campus, Collin Wilson and Stuckey pick their two favorite moneyline underdogs for each week's slate.
For Week 12 of the season, they're rolling with two Power 4 underdogs — one in an SEC showdown that will surely be one of the biggest games of the week and another in the ACC.
If you're feeling lucky, a parlay of both pups pays out at 7-1 at the time of writing.
Let's dive into our college football moneyline underdogs for Week 12.
- 2018-24: 85-129, +15.91 Units
- 2025: 7-15, -5.35 Units
- Overall: 92-144, +10.54 Units
College Football Moneyline Underdog Picks for Week 12
Collin Wilson: Oklahoma ML +185 vs. Alabama
| Oklahoma Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+6 -110 | 46 -110o / -110u | +185 |
| Alabama Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-6 -110 | 46 -110o / -110u | -220 |
I'm going with Oklahoma here.
Quarterback John Mateer has the goods to give the Alabama defense problems, as the Crimson Tide defense has continually struggled with mobile quarterbacks. Mateer posted a season-high three explosive runs against Tennessee with three missed tackles.
It looks like he has his legs back under him from what we saw at Washington State, and I think that the Sooners can make Alabama pay.
Now, the Tide's coverage unit has been elite in passing downs, but Alabama continues to fail in generating a pass rush.
Teams that can create consistent gains in the trench have troubled Alabama, particularly opposing teams with quarterback mobility. That's Oklahoma to a T with Mateer.
South Carolina gave the Tide all it could handle thanks to LaNorris Sellers leading the Gamecocks in rushing yards with a touchdown.
Missouri lost to Alabama by a field goal after a Herculean effort from quarterback Beau Pribula, leading the Tigers in rushing with 61 yards and a touchdown.
Those numbers pale in comparison to the season opener with Tommy Castellanos from Florida State, who went for 78 yards on the ground with a touchdown.
With Mateer heating up, he can be a major factor in the outcome of this game.
Plus, the Oklahoma defense continues to be one of the best in the nation, fielding the best rank of all FBS teams in Rushing Success Rate allowed and Defensive Line Yards.
This is the second-ranked Havoc unit in the nation without many weaknesses.
Oklahoma has an edge in a couple of key areas, so I'll take a shot on the Sooners at nearly 2-1 here.
Stuckey: UNC +180 vs. Wake Forest
| UNC Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+6 -110 | 38.5 -110o / -110u | +180 |
| Wake Forest Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-6 -110 | 38.5 -110o / -110u | -220 |
I expect this to be a low-scoring defensive battle where points are at a premium. The books also expect this given the extremely low total of 38.5.
Wake Forest has raced out to a surprise 6-3 start in large part due to an extremely stingy defense that ranks in the top-30 nationally adjusted for opponent.
However, the offense continues to struggle for a group that ranks outside the top-100 nationally.
The Demon Deacons still rotate quarterbacks and have no reliable downfield passing attack. They also have one of the worst red-zone offenses in the country. Despite those issues, the defense has helped them prevail in four of their five one-possession games.
With that said, without some timely stops, a miraculous 52-yard game-winning field goal against SMU, and Virginia's quarterback going down, this could easily be a 4-5 football team heading into the final three weeks of the season.
Keep in mind, Virginia out-gained the Demon Deacons last week 327-203 but couldn't overcome a -3 turnover margin, a punt return touchdown, and an early injury to Chandler Morris.
For reference, North Carolina out-gained the Hoos (with a healthy Morris) 353-259 in a one-point overtime loss in which they came up one inch short on a game-winning two-point conversion attempt.
If not for a pair of fumbles at the goal line in October, the Heels would be winners of four straight in large part due to their defense, which has been playing at an unbelievable level over the past month.
If we flipped just one or two plays against Cal and Virginia, North Carolina would be coming into this game at 6-3 with much more buzz after a slow start to the season.
If that were the case, this line would be closer to a field goal, which is where I think it should be. There's just not much separating these teams at the moment.
I guess we shouldn't be surprised Bill Belichick has figured out the defensive side of the ball. He's only one of the greatest defensive minds in football history.
Bill and the UNC defensive staff (headlined by his son) made several mid-season schematic tweaks up front that have really paid dividends.
Look no further than the past four games, where the Heels have held opposing rushing attacks to 288 total yards on 132 attempts. That's a ridiculous 2.2 yards per attempt.
Now, that does include sacks, but those are worth mentioning, as the Heels have accumulated 20 total in those four games. The defensive line is playing out of its mind, while the linebackers and safeties are cleaning up everything at the second level.
UNC can shut down the Wake Forest rushing attack, which essentially completely neuters the Demon Deacons on offense.
