The No. 2 Ohio State Buckeyes (12-1, 9-0 Big Ten) take on the No. 10 Miami Hurricanes (11-2, 6-2 SEC) in the 2025 Cotton Bowl and College Football Playoff quarterfinals on Wednesday, Dec. 31, at 8 p.m. ET on ESPN.
Ohio State, which enters as a -9.5 favorite, had an undefeated regular season at 12-0 but suffered a 13-10 loss to No. 1 Indiana in the Big Ten Championship.
Yet, that game didn't stop the Buckeyes from securing a first-round bye in the CFP.
Miami, meanwhile, didn't reach the ACC Championship, but it slipped into the playoff field over Notre Dame with a 10-2 record. Last week, it toppled No. 7 Texas A&M in College Station, 10-3.
So, who holds the advantage in this Cotton Bowl quarterfinals matchup?
We polled 9 of our college football writers to get their take on the spread and over/under, so let's dive into our Ohio State vs. Miami picks and college football predictions for the College Football Playoff on Wednesday, Dec. 31.
Spread Pick
Our Spread Pick: Ohio State -9.5
By Road to CFB
The Action Network staff is fairly split on where each falls on the point spread. That position would almost surely look different should this line nudge up a half-point, as roughly 9% of college football games end with a 10-point differential (third-most behind three and seven).
The market itself hasn’t made very many moves, likely because it’s patient, as almost all College Football Playoff numbers fall near a key figure.
Miami turns its focus to a better game plan after the one brought to Texas A&M was baffling, to say the least.
It found consistent success on the ground with Mark Fletcher, but offensive coordinator Shannon Dawson insisted on double passes, screens and other plays that threw off the Hurricanes' rhythm in the first half.
While Dawson and the Canes managed to survive in College Station, Miami cannot afford that kind of game plan against Ohio State.
When opposing offenses found success, it was in attacking the perimeter of the Buckeye defense.
Penn State found it with unbalanced formations and off-tackle runs. Illinois found it with a similar approach, plus misdirection that sucked second-level defenders inside. If a team can’t attack the perimeter successfully, it won’t find any offensive success.
Expect Miami to test physical cornerbacks like Davison Igbinosun, Jermaine Mathews Jr. and youngster Devin Sanchez with Malachi Toney early on.
Should Toney and Fletcher get some momentum, Miami will be able to move the football with some degree of confidence.
Allowing explosive plays is one of Miami’s weaknesses. It flexed its muscles with Rueben Bain Jr. and the excellent defensive front last week, but now Miami is faced with a cast of weapons on a different scale.
Receiver Carnell Tate assured his readiness after battling injury late in the year. He and Jeremiah Smith offer the most explosive one-two receiving punch in the country. The Hurricanes rank near the bottom nationally in explosive play rate allowed.
Like with many playoff games thus far, this could much more likely feature a runaway game for the Buckeyes than a win by the Canes.
Over/Under Pick
Over 40.5 | 2 Picks |
Pass | 0 Picks |
Under 40.5 | 7 Picks |
Our Over/Under Pick: Under 40.5
By Road to CFB
Our staff is much more in line with the point total, with seven of our nine voters leaning under.
That lean makes sense considering the high-water mark for points scored on the Ohio State defense is 16, achieved by Illinois in garbage time down, 34-10, with less than five minutes left in the game. Beyond that, teams capped out between 9-14 points.
Miami, too, has found plenty of success on defense. It allowed 24 points twice, and the high point total of 26 was achieved by SMU in overtime. The Hurricanes finished fifth in Points Per Drive allowed compared to the Buckeyes’ ranking of second.
When Dawson wasn’t throwing Miami’s offense out of rhythm, it operated quite efficiently.
Miami finished 16th in Success Rate, 14th in Quality Drive Rate and 26th in Points Per Drive. However, better defenses (especially up front) could fully apply the brakes.
SMU held Miami to 20 points, Louisville to 21 and Texas A&M to just three. Other instances include 28 scored on Florida State’s 67th-ranked defense and 26 against Florida's 87th-ranked unit.
Miami’s offensive line is the best test Ohio State has faced behind Indiana’s in the Big Ten Championship. The Buckeyes' front still managed to wreak Havoc behind Kayden McDonald and Kenyatta Jackson Jr., who led the charge for five tackles for loss and three sacks.
The Hurricanes gave up ground against Texas A&M’s front, allowing seven TFLs and two sacks.
Keep an eye on the reverse — Miami’s defensive line against Ohio State’s offensive line. The Hurricanes notched seven sacks of Marcel Reed and nine TFLs.
While the Buckeyes’ offensive line gets lots of good press, it’s the weakness of the entire roster and was downright bullied against Indiana.
Guard Tegra Tshabola will miss this quarterfinal, though his production was shaky at best; replacement Gabe VanSickle actually played better than Tshabola.
It’s no secret that the strength for both of these teams comes on defense, while questions arise on at least one offensive line.
Without any sort of protection or push up front, you get 10-3 and 13-10 draws against good defenses in Texas A&M and Indiana, respectfully.
If this game goes over, it’s because the quarterbacks are hitting receivers for explosive plays. The potential is there, but the outcome will be directly dictated by how each offensive line holds up.
Ohio State vs. Miami Odds
| Ohio State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-9.5 -110 | 40.5 -115o / -105u | -350 |
| Miami Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+9.5 -110 | 40.5 -115o / -105u | +280 |
- Ohio State vs. Miami Spread: Ohio State -9.5, Miami +9.5
- Ohio State vs. Miami Over/Under: 40.5
- Ohio State vs. Miami Moneyline: Ohio State -350, Miami +280
