College football Week 12 is here. That means it's time to dive into a couple of underdogs to bet on the moneyline.
Our Group of Five experts from the "Big Bets on Campus" podcast, Mike Calabrese and Joshua Nunn, came through with picks for Air Force vs. UConn and Coastal Carolina vs. Georgia Southern.
When parlayed together, these two Group of 5 'dogs pay out at over 6-1.
Let's take a look at our college football predictions and NCAAF picks in our Group of 5 moneyline underdog parlay for Week 12.
College Football Predictions, Underdog Parlay
- Air Force ML +230 vs. UConn
- Coastal Carolina ML +125 vs. Georgia Southern
Parlay Odds: +649 (bet365)
Air Force +230 vs. UConn
| Air Force Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+7 -110 | 63.5 -110o / -110u | +230 |
| UConn Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-7 -110 | 63.5 -110o / -110u | -280 |
By Joshua Nunn
The Falcons have lost a lot of close games this year, but they can still secure bowl eligibility with a few tough wins down the stretch.
Meanwhile, UConn has played up and down against its competition all season.
Joe Fagnano is an elite quarterback with 25 touchdowns to no interceptions on the season. The Huskies have played three max-effort games of late, including their best effort of the season in an outright win over Duke last week.
But if you’ve looked at what happens the week after those big performances, the Huskies have struggled.
They laid an egg against Delaware, played down to Ball State and struggled against Buffalo in the weeks after big ACC wins. Additionally, after beating Boston College on the road earlier this year, UConn lost outright to Rice as a 10-point favorite the next week.
On the other side, I like Air Force’s offense. Quarterback Liam Szarka has been controlling the offense, and the ground game was effective against San Jose State.
The Falcons peaked around this time last season, and they should be able to run the ball effectively against UConn’s ineffective rush defense, which is unfamiliar with Air Force’s scheme.
This is a significantly troubling spot for the Huskies.
Coastal Carolina +125 vs. Georgia Southern
| Coastal Carolina Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 -105 | 60.5 -110o / -110u | +125 |
| Georgia Southern Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 -115 | 60.5 -110o / -110u | -150 |
I’m going to roll with the Chanticleers from Coastal Carolina.
They’ve been cruising lately with Samari Collier leading the charge, and this switch at quarterback has been a game-changer. In fact, the offense has averaged 43 points per game over its last three contests.
What really sets Collier apart is his mobility. That’s going to matter big time against Georgia Southern, especially because its pass rush ranks dead last in FBS.
When Collier drops back to pass — which I expect to see 20-25 times in this game — he’ll burn the Eagles scrambling all over the place. You don’t have to look far to see how vulnerable Georgia Southern is to that style of play.
Arkansas State's Jaylen Raynor ran all over these same Eagles for over 50 yards and three touchdowns. James Madison quarterbacks Alonza Barnett and Matthew Sluka also took full advantage. Even Jacksonville State’s Gavin Wimsatt put up 59 yards and two scores on the ground. Collier should feast here.
Now, what’s interesting here is Georgia Southern’s shift in offensive philosophy. After years of an Air Raid attack with strong perimeter weapons, it has pivoted to lean on the ground game this season.
Part of that is about taking the ball out of quarterback JC French’s hands, as he has been turnover-prone.
But the Eagles also just like their offensive line this year; they’re 14th nationally in Line Yards and 56th in Rushing Success Rate.
Running back OJ Arnold has been the main beneficiary, racking up north of 140 all-purpose yards in two of the last three games. Expect him to be the focus.
Defensively, Coastal has shown it can handle the run decently over the last month, including a performance in which it held ULM's Braylon McReynolds in check in a victory.
Although run defense might be a weakness on paper, I think the Chants will key in on it hard in this one. They’re basically daring JC French to beat them, knowing he struggles under pressure. Over the past two years, French has had 29 turnover-worthy plays.
I expect Coastal to set the tempo on offense early. If Georgia Southern falls behind, that’s when French is liable to make mistakes throwing the ball deep, giving Coastal’s defense a few chances to take it away.
