You may be familiar with our weekly moneyline underdog article. Well, we decided a couple of years ago that we needed to show love for the other side by also sharing our two favorite college football favorites that we share weekly on the "Big Bets on Campus" podcast.
We affectionately refer to them as "overdogs," thanks to one of our beloved callers.
To keep the chalk talk rolling this week, we're backing two home favorites — one at the Power 4 level and one at the Group of 5 level.
Let's dive into our Week 12 college football predictions and NCAAF picks for Penn State vs. Michigan State and Washington State vs. LA Tech on Saturday, Nov. 15.
Week 8 College Football Predictions, Picks
Collin Wilson: Penn State -7 vs. Michigan State
| Penn State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-7 -115 | 49.5 -110o / -110u | -270 |
| Michigan State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+7 -105 | 49.5 -110o / -110u | +220 |
I’m taking Penn State to win big over Michigan State, and it really comes down to the running game.
Michigan State ranks in the bottom 15 nationally when it comes to stopping the run. That’s a huge advantage for Penn State’s Kaytron Allen and Nick Singleton — one of the best running back duos in the nation — who’ll be looking to take advantage all game long.
On top of that, Michigan State’s struggles in pass protection don’t help, and Penn State’s defense has been stepping up lately, bringing pressure and making things tough in the backfield.
It's also worth noting that Penn State is still in the bowl hunt at 3-6. Some of these players — especially those not heading to the NFL — care about that postseason opportunity.
I make this spread closer to 10.5, so I’m rolling with the Nittany Lions to show up and win comfortably here.
Stuckey: Washington State -7.5 vs. LA Tech
| LA Tech Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+7.5 -105 | 43 -110o / -110u | +260 |
| Washington State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-7.5 -115 | 43 -110o / -110u | -320 |
Let’s talk about the best spot of the day: Washington State. The line is a bit on the pricey side, but I’m sticking with it because there’s still value here.
LA Tech just got done traveling from Ruston to Delaware, where the Bulldogs lost on a brutal onside kick and 52-yard field goal at the buzzer that knocked them out of conference championship contention.
Now, they’re flying all the way out to Pullman and have to hop on a bus for a three-hour ride to their game against a Washington State team that's coming off a bye week and should have its offensive and defensive lines healthier.
How do you expect LA Tech to show up? Just ask Toledo, which made that same brutal trip to Pullman during conference play and got smoked, 28-7.
To make things worse, LA Tech lost its starting quarterback last week to a season-ending ACL injury. There's going to be a lot more Trey Kukuk now. He's more of a runner, but Washington State has been really solid against mobile quarterbacks.
Wazzu's defense has improved every week and has given up less than 14 points per game in its last four contests.
You might ask, “Who’d they play?” Well, it nearly beat Ole Miss on the road, almost took down Virginia on the road and trounced Toledo. Not bad.
LA Tech can’t generate pressure, which is huge because Washington State’s biggest weakness has been protecting the quarterback.
Plus, the Cougars have been a wagon at home. Over the past 20 years, they’ve gone 57-42 against the spread against FBS teams on the Palouse for a cover rate of about 58%. Against teams that travel in from other time zones, they’re 27-12 ATS at home, covering by roughly four points per game.
Ultimately, this spot is awful for LA Tech. I’d be shocked if it gets off the bus ready to play.
