NCAAF Best Bets & Predictions: Noon Slate Odds, Picks

Finally, we’ve reached another fall Saturday. I’m sure it’s been a long week, so it’s an excellent time to sweat 14 hours of college football.

You can’t bet all day if you don’t start in the morning. Or, I mean, at noon.

Regardless, our staff has three picks on this Saturday’s noon slate, including a side for the Red River Showdown Texas vs Oklahoma game and a consensus total for the LSU vs Missouri tilt.

Read on for odds and breakdowns of all three best bets for today's noon college football games.

The must-have app for college football bettors

The best NCAAF betting scoreboard

Free picks from proven pros

Live win probabilities for your bets

DOWNLOAD NOW

Saturday's Noon College Football Best Bets

The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our college football betting staff is targeting from Saturday's noon games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.

By Tanner McGrath

Let’s take a deep look at Oklahoma’s resume.

They’re 5-0 SU and ATS with the second-biggest ATS cover margin in the nation (+14).

However, two of their big wins came against doormats in Arkansas State and Tulsa, who they beat by a combined score of 139-17.

They then beat SMU by 17 as 16.5-point favorites despite being outgained (367 to 365) and trailing in the fourth quarter.

They then beat Cinci by 14 despite the Bearcats scoring six points on six Scoring Opportunities (drives inside the opponent’s 40-yard line). The ‘Cats scored only three points on their final four red-zone possessions.

They crushed Iowa State last week, but a pick-six and a blocked-punt safety inflated the final score.

The Sooners are also +8 in turnover differential and have played the nation’s 52nd-toughest schedule, per PowerRankingsGuru’s numbers. They’ve played zero top-40 SP+ offenses and one top-40 SP+ defense.

Dillon Gabriel and the offense’s numbers are insane. Danny Stutsman and the defense’s numbers are similarly excellent. But Oklahoma’s overall value has been inflated by flukey results against inferior competition.

Oklahoma’s overvalued, and Texas will be a wake-up call.

The Longhorns are also 5-0, but their resume is far more deserving.

They’ve played the nation’s 13th-toughest schedule and won every game by double digits. They have yet to post a post-game win expectancy mark under 65%.

They have two wins over ranked teams, Kansas and Alabama. UT out-scored those two by 33 points, out-gained them by 493 yards, and held the pair to a combined -0.10 EPA per Play.

Texas has arguably the most talented roster in the country. The offense ranks 20th in EPA per Play, led by an improved quarterback in Quinn Ewers. The defense ranks fourth in EPA per Play allowed, led by up-and-coming defensive coordinator Pete Kwiatkowski and a much-improved pass rush.

The latter point is key in this handicap.

Last season, Texas created pressures but couldn’t convert them into sacks, leading the nation in pressure rate but finishing sub-70th in total sacks. This year, the Horns are top-30 in pressures created (51) and top-20 in total sacks (14). The defensive line tandem of T’Vondre Sweat and Byron Murphy have a combined 17 pressures, while senior linebacker Jaylon Ford has improved into one of the nation’s most versatile defenders.

Meanwhile, Gabriel struggles under pressure. He completed only 33% of his passes under pressure last season (97 dropbacks) and 52% this year (36 dropbacks). And because Oklahoma hasn’t played many elite defenses, he’s been under pressure only 20% of the time, the third-lowest mark among qualified FBS quarterbacks.

Gabriel could see a monster drop in efficiency with a dominant Horns front seven in his face.

Regardless, Texas looks like the third-best team in college football, with the roster and resume to back it up.

Based on their resume and results, I don’t think the Sooners are on that level yet, but they’re being priced as such.

I could be wrong, and the Sooners could use this opportunity to post a signature victory. But I’m still willing to place my hard-earned money behind my analysis and bet that the ‘Horns will win comfortably.

By Mike Ianniello

We know this LSU offense is elite.

Jayden Daniels is playing at a Heisman-caliber level, and he has multiple NFL receivers, led by Malik Nabers and Brian Thomas Jr. The Tigers rank third nationally in Success Rate on offense and are averaging 44 points per game.

But their defense can’t stop a nosebleed. LSU ranks 100th in Success Rate allowed and 130th at preventing Finishing Drives. When teams get into scoring range on the Tigers, they score.

But the whole field has been in scoring range against the Tigers. They rank 120th in defending Explosiveness. LSU ranks 118th in PFF's Coverage grade and 99th in Tackling grade. It’s surrendered 14 plays of 30 yards or more this year.

That makes this a terrible matchup for LSU.

Missouri’s offense is firing on all cylinders. Eli Drinkwitz’s squad ranks 25th in Success Rate on offense, with most of that success coming through the air. Missouri is 14th in the country in Passing Success Rate.

Quarterback Brady Cook has been fantastic. He has 11 touchdowns with no interceptions. He only has two Turnover Worthy Throws all season, including zero in his past three contests.

Cook is completing 74.5% of his passes, the nation's ninth-best mark. He’s averaging 10.4 yards per attempt and 293.6 yards per game.

His main weapon is Luther Burden III. Burden leads the country with 644 receiving yards on 43 catches, including five touchdowns. He’s putting up a ridiculous 8.6 receptions and 128.8 yards per game.

Burden has eclipsed 110 yards in four straight games and has only two drops on 53 targets. He’s averaging 14.9 yards per reception and leads the country with 26 catches of 10 yards or more.

LSU can score on just about anybody, and Cook, Burden and Co. should have no trouble picking up explosive plays against this dreadful LSU secondary.

I expect to see another exciting shootout between two teams that are a combined 7-1 to the Over in 2023.

By Alex Hinton

LSU is usually one of the country's better defenses.

Not this year. The Tigers have already allowed 31 points or more in three of their first five games.

The Tigers have particularly struggled to defend to pass, ranking 120th in Passing Explosiveness allowed and 130th in Passing Success Rate allowed.

LSU has another test this Saturday. Led by Brady Cook, Luther Burden III and Theo Wease Jr., Missouri boasts as dangerous an aerial attack as anyone.

But LSU’s offense still may be the best unit on the field in this game.

Jayden Daniels entered this year with the second-best Heisman odds, only behind Caleb Williams. He won’t win the Heisman due to LSU’s record, but he’s been playing at a Heisman level.

Daniels has thrown 16 touchdowns against two interceptions while completing 73% of his passes and averaging 342 passing yards per game.

He also has 292 yards on the ground and ranks ninth in the country in QBR.

Missouri's offense ranks third nationally in Rushing Success Rate, and Missouri's defense is allowing only 75 rushing yards per game.

This may have to be a game that Daniels wins with his arm.

However, Missouri is also 114th in defending Explosiveness.

LSU receivers Malik Nabers and Brian Thomas Jr. each have at least 500 yards and five touchdowns, each averaging over 15 yards per reception. They’re both capable of taking short passes the distance or winning on vertical routes.

Both offenses hold the advantage here, which should result in points.

The total has crept up throughout the week, but at 63.5, we haven’t crossed a key number. LSU just played a 34-31 game against Arkansas.

However, I’m expecting 70-80 points in this game. 64.5 should clear easily, and I feel comfortable taking the Over up to 67.5.