College Football Best Bets: Saturday Evening Picks & Odds
John E. Moore III/Getty Images. Pictured: Tahj Brooks of Texas Tech.
There's no doubt that the early games on a full Saturday slate of college football are special — but the evening slate also has a way of getting the blood pumping. There's something about some high-level college football being played under the lights.
That's exactly what we have tonight.
Saturday evening's college football slate is loaded, and our staff made the most of it, coming through with seven best bets. So, whether you're looking to back Coach Prime in his Week 6 showdown in Tempe or you're looking to take the Fighting Irish of Notre Dame, we have you covered.
But that's not all — be sure to check out the rest of our best bets for Saturday's noon, afternoon and late-night slates.
Saturday Evening College Football Best Bets
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our college football betting staff is targeting from Saturday evening's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
| 6:30 p.m. | ||
| 7 p.m. | ||
| 7 p.m. | ||
| 7:30 p.m. | ||
| 7:30 p.m. | ||
| 8 p.m. | ||
| 8 p.m. | ||
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAF Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Colorado vs. Arizona State
After falling back to reality following a series of losses against elite teams, this is a solid opportunity to jump back on the Colorado bandwagon as it travels to Tempe to face Arizona State.
Colorado got things back on track last weekend in a losing effort against USC after getting overwhelmed by Oregon's pass rush in a blowout two weeks ago.
The Buffaloes made the necessary adjustments at the line of scrimmage and gave up only three sacks against the 12th-ranked pass rush of USC. This afforded Colorado quarterback Shedeur Sanders more time in the pocket, and he capitalized by going 30-of-45 for 371 yards, four touchdowns and one interception.
This week, Colorado will face an Arizona State team that ranks 93rd in pass rush, per PFF. This should set up Colorado's pass-heavy attack exceptionally well. The Sun Devils have the weakest front four of any team they've faced, and the closest comparison is a Nebraska team that Sanders lit up for 393 yards and two touchdowns.
In addition to a below-average pass rush, the Arizona State secondary has not been a strong unit. The Sun Devils rank 102nd nationally in coverage, per PFF, and this should play into the favor of the uptempo Colorado offense.
I like this chance to back the fifth-ranked Colorado passing offense that's averaging 356.8 passing yards per game after some of the luster has faded. Look for this game to skew in favor of the Buffs as they turn into an aerial assault.
The line has moved down from 5.5 to 4, but I would be comfortable laying the chalk at 6.5 or better. I will take Coach Prime and Buffaloes after a brutal two-week stretch on the road.
Kentucky vs. Georgia
By Cody Goggin
I believe that this line is an overreaction to the final scores of last week’s games.
Georgia barely pulled out a close win against Auburn on the road, but looking at the underlying numbers it was the much better team.
SP+’s post-game win expectancy had this game as an expected margin of 19.2 points in favor of Georgia.
Kentucky demolished Florida a week ago, but the Wildcats still allowed an 80th-percentile Success Rate to an offense that hasn’t exactly been world beaters this year with Graham Mertz at the helm.
The Wildcats did win that game handily, but it was largely on the back of their running game.
Devin Leary went just 9-of-20 for 70 yards against Florida, averaging -0.17 EPA per play. He really hasn’t impressed much at all in his move to Lexington this season.
Against a fairly easy schedule, Kentucky ranks 84th in Offensive Success Rate. Its defense has been strong overall against these weaker opponents, but its passing defense has been a bit of an issue down-to-down.
Kentucky ranks 63rd in Passing Success Rate Allowed while Georgia is 11th in the country in Passing Success Rate.
Georgia’s defense ranks 21st in Success Rate and 16th in limiting explosive plays. The Bulldogs’ passing defense is especially strong, ranking 11th in Success Rate and fourth in PPA Allowed.
I don’t have faith in Leary to be able to push Georgia in Athens.
This may not be the same dominant Georgia team we’ve seen the past few seasons, but it’s more talented up front than Kentucky, and I think that it will be able to fully shut down this Wildcats offense.
We’re looking at a tale of two teams here from a gambling perspective, and I think it’s the opposite of what you think.
So far this season, Kentucky is 4-1 ATS, while Georgia has yet to beat it. Why is that? Well, this is not the same Georgia team we’re used to seeing.
This is going to sound absurd – given Georgia’s defense is still very good – but the Bulldogs are finally starting to feel the effects of losing eight first-round players in the last two NFL drafts.
You read that correctly, five in 2022 and three in 2023.
That otherworldly defense of the last two years has been replaced by merely a very good one – one that ranks 22nd in Success Rate Allowed, 50th in Havoc and 35th in Finishing Drives.
Meanwhile, this is the best Kentucky team we’ve seen in some time.
After running the ball all over Florida last week, I would expect more of the same this week, especially since Georgia has shown some propensity to give up big plays on the ground (77th in Rushing Explosiveness Allowed).
I think Kentucky will keep this ball on the ground, run the ball successfully and chew up a ton of clock to – at least – keep this one close.
I’m also taking the moneyline because Stetson Bennett ain’t walking through that door and I’m not a believer in the Bulldogs’ offense.
Michigan vs. Minnesota
Michigan has been steamrolling everyone in its path to begin the season.
The Wolverines have outscored their opponents, 172-30, and not one opponent has put up more than seven points on the scoreboard.
The Michigan offense is built on methodically moving the ball down the field while sucking the life out of the opposing defense.
The Wolverines run the ball on 61% of their offensive plays and are playing at the second-slowest pace in the country — behind only Air Force — running a play every 31.9 seconds.
They're 22nd in Rushing Success Rate but 122nd in rushing explosiveness, so it's a lot of three- to four-yard runs over and over again.
J.J. McCarthy is one of the most efficient passers in the country when he's called upon to throw. He's averaging 10.2 yards per attempt and owns a PFF passing grade of 90.6 with an adjusted completion percentage of 80.8%.
The key to limiting McCarthy is forcing him to take checkdowns and short passes because he will destroy defenses if he's given the opportunity to throw over the top.
Image via PFF.
Minnesota's offense has been pretty terrible so far this season, failing to run or pass the ball efficiently. The Gophers are averaging just 5.1 yards per play and rank 96th in EPA/Play.
Quarterback Athan Kaliakmanis has struggled this season, averaging just 6.2 yards per attempt with a 62.2 PFF passing grade.
The problem is he can't throw the ball downfield. He's attempted 44 passes over 10 yards and has completed only 20 of them without a single big-time throw.
That's a big problem because Minnesota isn't built to play from behind. The Gophers run the ball on 61.5% of their offensive plays and try to make Kaliakmanis' life easy with only high-quality throws.
Minnesota also boasts a very average rushing offense, ranking 69th in EPA/Rush.
Now star running back Darius Taylor — who's averaging 6.1 yards per carry and leads the Big Ten with 532 yards rushing — missed the last game with a leg injury and is questionable to play on Saturday.
Michigan's defense has been one of the best in the nation, but that's especially true against the run. The Wolverines are allowing only 3.1 yards per carry and rank inside the top five in both Rushing Success Rate Allowed and EPA/Rush Allowed.
That means they'll put pressure on Kaliakmanis to beat them through the air, which is something I'm not sure he's capable of doing.
Notre Dame vs. Louisville
Yes, I’m aware that this will be Notre Dame’s third consecutive primetime game against an undefeated opponent.
And yes, I’m aware that a showdown with USC is looming next week.
I frankly don’t care.
Unlike the last two weeks against Ohio State and Duke – who both possess elite defenses – the Irish should have some big advantages when they have the ball.
Additionally, both Jayden Thomas and Jaden Greathouse are expected to return for this one, giving Sam Hartman some much needed weapons back at his disposal.
On the other side of the ball, the Irish defense continues to be dominant and should be able to wreak some havoc on a Cardinal offense that basically did nothing for four quarters last week against NC State.
I think last week rejuvenated Marcus Freeman’s team after the heartbreaker to Ohio State, and I don’t expect this matchup to be close.
Give me the Irish.
Texas Tech vs. Baylor
By Doug Ziefel
As someone who faded the Red Raiders last week in this best bets column, I was impressed by Behren Morton in his first start of the season. The sophomore quarterback completed 63% of his passes and threw two touchdowns with no interceptions on his way to a 155.1 passer rating.
With Morton holding it down under center, the Red Raiders will be able to capitalize on their edges in this matchup against Baylor.
Texas Tech has a massive edge in the trenches, as it outranks Baylor 13 to 94 on the offensive side of the field.
The Red Raiders will be able to get a constant push up front, which will enable them to run the ball at will against a Baylor defense that ranks 110th in yards per rush allowed.
The consistent rushing attack should also open up things for Morton in the passing game. Baylor's secondary has been torched this season (120th in PFF's coverage grading) and that’s translated into ranking 125th in yards per pass allowed.
On the other side of the ball, Texas Tech should be able to contain the Baylor offense, as the Red Raiders have sizable edges in both Rushing and Passing Success Rates.
If they can string together defensive stops, they have the ability to pull away in this matchup.
Colorado State vs. Utah State
McCae Hillstead is out for Utah State at quarterback. The freshman nearly orchestrated an upset of undefeated James Madison, throwing for 399 yards and four scores.
Cooper Legas taking over is a downgrade for a Utah State team that needs to score and score regularly.
The Aggies’ defense is in the conversation for the worst in the FBS, as it’s 130th in Defensive Success Rate.
The Aggies fail to generate pressure consistently (110th in sack rate), and they allowed UConn to score 33 points last week. That same UConn team entered as the third-lowest scoring team in the nation.
Now here comes Colorado State into town. After fixing their offensive line via the portal, the Rams have jumped from last in the FBS in terms of sacks allowed to 43rd this fall.
That extra time has allowed Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi to carve up defenses. He’s accounted for 10 total touchdowns in three starts, and opposing secondaries seem powerless to stop tight end Dallin Holker and wide receiver Tory Horton.
If Horton were the first Group of Five skill-position player selected in next spring’s NFL Draft, I wouldn’t be surprised — he’s that good.
This game opened as a pick and continues to move, so I would play it all the way up to CSU-4.
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