Stuckey & Wilson: 2 College Football Moneyline Underdogs to Bet in Week 6
Mandatory Credit: Raj Mehta-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Western Michigan running back LeVante Bellamy
- Don't forget to sprinkle some moneyline underdogs into your college footballs picks for Week 6.
- Our college football experts give their two favorite moneyline underdog bets for Saturday.
As we do each week on The Action Network Colleges Podcast, Collin Wilson and I pick our two favorite moneyline underdogs on Saturday’s college football slate.
Last week, Toledo cashed for me but Oregon State came up a field goal short for Collin. We’ve hit one of two for five weeks straight, which will always bring home some profit, but we also want the people’s parlay to come through. So, we went with two shorter underdogs for Week 6.
I’m rolling with an afternoon game involving a MAC team for the fourth straight week and Collin is going with a Power 5 home dog in the same time slot.
If you’re feeling lucky, a moneyline parlay of both pays about +350.
- 2018: 16-28 +3.95 units
- 2019: 5-5 +3.3 units
Stuckey: Western Michigan +105 (at Toledo)
- Spread: Toledo -1.5
- Over/Under: 72
- Location: Toledo, OH
- Time: 3:30 p.m. ET
- TV: ESPN+
Toledo came through for us last week but let’s be honest, it was pretty fortunate to pull out the win over BYU. The Cougars averaged 6.5 yards per play compared to 5.3 for Toledo. The Rockets benefited from the following BYU miscues: two missed field goals, 0-2 on fourth down (Toledo was 2-2), a key late interception and twice as many penalties.
Frankly, Toledo’s defense is horrendous. Just take a look at some of its defensive ranks:
- 5.0 yards per rush (111th)
- 7.3 yards per pass attempt (81st)
- 64% completion percentage (101st)
- 6.3 yards per play overall (108th)
And it’s not like the Rockets have played a murderer’s row with a schedule so far that’s included thee FBS teams in BYU, Colorado State and Colorado. Those respective offenses rank 78th, 23rd and 94th in yards per play. And I didn’t even mention a dominant 45-0 shutout win over FCS Murray State.
If you remove the Murray State game, Toledo has allowed a staggering 7.0 yards per play. To put that into perspective, only four FBS teams are allowing seven or more yards per play this season (Vanderbilt, Georgia State, UMass and New Mexico State).
Now, let’s not get it twisted … Western Michigan is not great on defense either. The Broncos allowed 50-plus to both Syracuse and Michigan State. Toledo’s high-powered rush attack should have plenty of success here. This should also be an absolute shootout (I also like the over despite the sky-high number).
I just ultimately trust Western Michigan’s multi-faceted offense more.
Western Michigan sits inside the top 10 in terms of yards per play at 7.4, sandwiched between Ohio State and Penn State. The Broncos also rank inside the to 20 in yards per play in rushing and passing.
They should be able to move the sticks with ease by handing it off, as any competent offense can do against Toledo. Speedy back LeVante Bellamy should have a field day. And quarterback Jon Wassink will also hit many explosive passing plays through the air — where Western Michigan is much more capable than Toledo.
I also just love the spot for Western Michigan — one of the most experienced teams in the country. Last year, Toledo went into Kalamazoo and beat down the Broncos by a score of 51-24. On the first drive of that game, quarterback Jon Wassink went down with a season-ending injury. This team hasn’t forgotten that game.
From everything I’ve seen so far, Western Michigan is the best team in the MAC at the moment. I think it gets revenge from last year and makes a statement in the MAC at the Glass Bowl on Saturday in what should be one of the most entertaining games of the day. I wouldn’t be shocked if both teams get to 40-plus.
Wilson: Florida +120 (vs. Auburn)
- Spread: Auburn -2.5
- Over/Under: 48.5
- Location: Gainesville, FL
- Time: 3:30 p.m. ET
- TV: CBS
True freshman Bo Nix has led Auburn to a 5-0 record with five covers and impressive victories over Oregon, Texas A&M and Mississippi State.
Nix has primarily served as a reliable caretaker of the offense, racking up multiple sub-200 yard passing games without a turnover. However, that all changed against the Bulldogs when he threw for 335 yards and three touchdowns with just five incompletions.
Despite his breakout game, the offensive line struggled a bit. Mississippi State’s front seven generated a couple sacks, six tackles for loss and a quarterback hurry.
The Auburn offensive line has allowed 31 tackles for loss while the skill positions have 12 total fumbles, which is one of the highest totals in the country. The Tigers have been fortunate so far in recovering those fumbles but that won’t last forever if they keep putting it on the carpet.
Auburn ranks 88th offensive in Havoc Allowed, which should come into play against a Florida defense that ranks third nationally in Havoc, in the top ten in passes defensed and top five in tackles for loss.
This will be Auburn’s toughest test of the season by a wide margin, especially for Nix and the offensive line. The Gator defense also ranks 25th in Line Yards and fourth in Sack Rate on defense. I expect the aggressive Todd Grantham Florida defense to create a few turnovers in the Swamp.
Florida has remained unblemished despite losing starting quarterback Feleipe Franks. Kyle Trask had just two incompletions against Towson, bringing his 2019 total to 51 of 66 for 647 yards with five touchdowns and two interceptions.
The Gators started the season with a slew of new offensive linemen but have managed to rank 53rd overall in Havoc allowed. They also have a plethora of extremely talented receivers, whose height could cause problems for some smaller Auburn defensive backs.
As I mentioned before, Tigers have been fortunate to recover seven of their 12 fumbles, but that turnover luck may change against a Gators defense that should live in the Tigers backfield during each Bo Nix passing attempt.
Our Action Network projections make this game a pick’em, so I will happily take the Havoc-minded home defense at plus money against the true freshman quarterback.