The No. 3 Georgia Bulldogs (12-1, 7-1 SEC) take on the No. 6 Ole Miss Rebels (12-1, 7-1 SEC) in the 2025 Sugar Bowl and College Football Playoff quarterfinals on Thursday, Jan. 1, at 8 p.m. ET on ESPN.
Georgia, which enters as a -6 favorite, reached the SEC Championship and dominated Alabama, 28-7, to take home the conference crown. The win gave the Bulldogs a first-round bye, and now opposing them are the Ole Miss Rebels.
These two teams met in SEC regular-season play, which culminated in a 43-35 Georgia victory. Ole Miss has been on cruise control since, though, and dominated Tulane, 41-10, in the first round of the playoff.
So, who holds the advantage in this rematch?
We polled 10 of our college football writers to get their take on the spread and over/under, so let's dive into our Georgia vs. Ole Miss picks and college football predictions for the Sugar Bowl and College Football Playoff on Thursday, Jan. 1.
Georgia vs. Ole Miss Spread Pick
Our Spread Pick: Georgia -6
By Joshua Nunn
Our staff is inclined to think the Bulldogs take care of business here, and I agree with the sentiment.
Ole Miss put some things together offensively against Tulane, and new head coach Pete Golding talked about the offense operating without Lane Kiffin, who departed the program for LSU.
There were some things that operated similarly to what Kiffin wanted to do, and there were also some nuances added in.
All of that has been on tape now for Georgia to analyze. Giving Kirby Smart and this Georgia defense substantial time to game-plan and prepare will favor Georgia.
This Bulldogs defense has now shown itself to be the vaunted front of years past, but this group has been nasty over the last month of the season.
The last four opponents to play Georgia have failed to score more than 10 points, and situational execution on third down and in the red zone has heavily favored the Dawgs defense. Over the last four weeks, opponents have converted just 10-of-47 third-down attempts, and only 1-of-6 red-zone attempts have ended with a touchdown.
These guys are locked in right now.
I worry about Ole Miss' ability to secure stops on the defensive side in the second half. Tulane moved the ball for over 400 yards against the Rebels, and I struggle to drum up scenarios where the Rebels can stop the run.
Georgia should win the war in the trenches, and I expect the offensive line to lean on Ole Miss' D-line in the late stages of the second half.
Expect Georgia to score a ton of points here. Plus, seeing Trinidad Chambliss and Co. for a second time should help the Dawgs be more prepared in this one. Georgia should pull away late.
Georgia vs. Ole Miss Over/Under Pick
Over 55.5 | 5 Picks |
Pass | 1 Pick |
Under 55.5 | 4 Picks |
Our Over/Under Pick: Over 55.5
By Road to CFB
There’s a divide among the Action Network staff on how to bet the Sugar Bowl. Five of our 10 voters lean toward the over.
Last time these teams played (Week 7), they combined for 78 points and almost 900 yards.
The Ole Miss defense failed, as Gunner Stockton threw four touchdowns and Georgia stormed back with a 17-0 fourth-quarter edge. Nothing flukey about it — both offenses won the battle in Athens.
That was the second of two outlier games for the Georgia defense. In Week 3, Tennessee managed to drop 41 in overtime before a bye week adjustment was needed.
Standout games this season included holding Georgia Tech to nine points, Texas to 10 and Alabama to seven in the SEC Championship rematch.
That’s where coaching comes into play. Georgia's Kirby Smart is college football’s best coach, and he has quite the record in rematches.
This year, he shut Alabama down, 28-7, in the rematch; last year, Smart beat Texas twice, the second to clinch an SEC title; in 2021, he avenged an SEC Championship loss to Alabama with a 33-18 win over the Tide in the National Championship game.
Even in consecutive years, Smart’s approach improved. Last year, he allowed 42 to Georgia Tech in a wild multi-overtime affair. This year, Tech managed nine points and 70 rushing yards.
The concern comes from an Ole Miss team that just dealt with months of Lane Kiffin nonsense and now is under new head coach Pete Golding. Golding led Ole Miss to a 41-10 win over Tulane in Round 1, but this is a clear step up in class.
The Rebels defense showed up in front of a juiced home crowd, but it did have some concerns in the Egg Bowl (262 rushing yards allowed) and against Florida (326 total yards).
Georgia took good advantage of that unit the first time around, and although, it has had some disappearing acts this year (16 against Georgia Tech, 21 vs. Alabama the first time, 20 vs. Auburn), both teams should light up the scoreboard.
Georgia vs. Ole Miss Odds
| Georgia Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-6 -115 | 55.5 -110o / -110u | -250 |
| Ole Miss Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+6 -105 | 55.5 -110o / -110u | +200 |
- Georgia vs. Ole Miss Spread: Georgia -6, Ole Miss +6
- Georgia vs. Ole Miss Over/Under: 55.5
- Georgia vs. Ole Miss Moneyline: Georgia ML -250, Ole Miss ML +200
