The Alabama Crimson Tide take on the Indiana Hoosiers in the Rose Bowl and College Football Playoff quarterfinals in Pasadena, California, on Thursday, Jan. 1. Kickoff is set for 4 p.m. ET on ESPN.
Indiana is favored by 7 points on the spread with a moneyline of -250. Alabama, meanwhile, enters as a +7 underdog and is +200 on the moneyline to pull off the upset. The over/under sits at 48 total points.
Here’s my Alabama vs. Indiana prediction and college football picks for Thursday, January 1.
Alabama vs Indiana Prediction
- Alabama vs. Indiana Pick: Indiana -7
My Indiana vs. Alabama best bet is on the Hoosiers to cover the spread. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
Alabama vs Indiana Odds
| Alabama Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+7 -110 | 48 -110o / -110u | +200 |
| Indiana Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-7 -110 | 48 -110o / -110u | -250 |
- Alabama vs Indiana Spread: Indiana -7, Alabama +7
- Alabama vs Indiana Over/Under: 48 Points
- Alabama vs Indiana Moneyline: Alabama +200, Indiana -250
Alabama vs Indiana College Football Playoff Preview
Alabama Crimson Tide Betting Preview: Moving On
Alabama survived hostile territory in Norman, avenging an earlier-season loss to Oklahoma in the first round of the College Football Playoff.
The Sooners raced out to a 17-point lead before the Crimson Tide's passing offense answered the call. A methodical drive helped quarterback Ty Simpson get on the board, followed by a Zabien Brown pick-six to close the half tied.
The Sooners had no luck against defensive coordinator Kane Wommack in the second half, ending the game with consecutive punts and missed field goals.
However, Alabama's offense has become one-dimensional, as Oklahoma stuffed 17-of-21 Crimson Tide rushing attempts.
Simpson leads an offense that's heavy in pass efficiency, while the run game lags behind mid-FBS rankings in Stuff Rate, Line Yards and the ability to create explosives.
New faces are racing up the target share for Alabama, as Lotzeir Brooks and Isaiah Horton combined for 10 catches on 15 targets. Brooks failed to haul in a score all season but captured two touchdowns from Simpson against the Sooners.
The biggest note comes from the defensive line, where the Crimson Tide had a legitimate pass rush for the first time in 2025. Alabama finished the season ranked 127th in pass rush, generating just 20 sacks the entire season.
Mateer was harassed in the first round, as Alabama posted 15 defensive pressures and a single-game high of seven sacks. Linebacker Yhonzae Pierre led a group of seven different players to post a sack.
Alabama had one of the best defensive outings of the year, keeping Oklahoma from a methodical or explosive drive in 14 offensive possessions.
Indiana Hoosiers Betting Preview: Still Dominant
Indiana football starts with a physical offensive line and a bully-ball style of rushing attack. The Hoosiers boast a 61% rush ratio that relies heavily on inside zone.
Running back Roman Hemby is the primary option for zone read, leading Indiana to the top overall rank in Rushing Success Rate.
The secondary run concept for the Hoosiers features man or gap blocking tendencies for the offensive line, with running back Kaelon Black serving as the top option.
Both running backs average at least 3.4 yards after first contact and have combined for 40 rushing attempts of at least 10 yards.
Heisman Trophy winner Fernando Mendoza leads an offense that has the highest rate of standard downs of any team in FBS.
Indiana comes in as the top overall team in quality drives, a number that's complemented by a rank of third in Finishing Drives. The Hoosiers have averaged 5.1 points on 89 possessions that crossed the opponent's 40-yard line.
On the other side, head coach Curt Cignetti continues to field a Havoc-minded defense. In fact, the Hoosiers lead the nation in that category. Indiana finished second nationally in tackles for loss, a number assisted by defensive edge Stephen Daley, who will miss the rest of the season.
Teams that have fallen into passing downs have had no success against Indiana, as the Hoosiers sit top-five in third-down defense and late-downs efficiency.
Alabama vs Indiana Pick, Betting Analysis
Alabama doubled down as a one-dimensional offense against Oklahoma, as the Sooners stuffed 80% of rushing attempts. Simpson was under constant duress when it came to finding open targets, and a similar path is expected against Indiana.
Alabama has struggled to find any success on the ground with inside zone, a run concept that the Indiana defense knocks out of the park. The Hoosiers have a 58% Success Rate against inside zone, producing a negative play on one of every six attempts.
However, there may be an avenue for the passing attack to have success against an Indiana defense that's 73rd in creating a contested catch.
On the other side, Line Yards and Stuff Rate rankings indicate that Black and Hemby will have success moving the ball on the ground for Indiana.
Alabama posted mid-FBS rankings in defending inside zone. Hemby will be a more productive option because the Crimson Tide have shut down offenses using man.
Alabama should have more success than any other defense in terms of getting Mendoza to passing downs. However, the Cal transfer still had success this season against Cover 3 and Cover 2 looks, the primary coverage option for Wommack.
Mother Nature will have her say during this Rose Bowl, as a high percentage of precipitation is expected, with over six hours of rainfall.
The beneficiary of this weather would be Indiana's ground attack over Alabama's passing attack.
A wet environment favors the team with the better running game, along with a defense that makes fewer mistakes in tackling. Not only is Indiana the most efficient rushing attack in FBS, but the defense also ranks 15th in broken tackles allowed.
Conversely, Alabama has minimal presence in the running game, while the defense sits 113th in broken tackles allowed. per Sports Info Solutions.
Pick: Indiana -7 or Better
Alabama vs Indiana Betting Trends
