Happy New Year's Day, college football fans!
What better way to celebrate 2026 than with three College Football Playoff games and three College Football Playoff best bets for the Orange Bowl, Rose Bowl and Cotton Bowl?
Read on for our NCAAF picks for Thursday, January 1.
College Football Playoff Best Bets, Picks
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our college football betting staff is targeting from Thursday's slate of CFP games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 12 p.m. | |
  | 4 p.m. | |
| 4 p.m. | |
  | 8 p.m. | |
 | 8 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAF Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Oregon vs Texas Tech Pick
By Joshua Nunn
I don’t think Oregon will be able to move the ball on Texas Tech’s stingy defense.
The Red Raiders lead the nation in yards per carry allowed and rank second in Havoc. The elite front seven has amassed 39 sacks and 96 tackles for loss this season.
Of greater importance, Texas Tech’s defense has been elite in the red zone, while Oregon’s offense has struggled in that area.
On the other side of the ball, the Red Raiders are a balanced offense this season, even run-heavy at times.
Cameron Dickey and J’Koby Williams have been massive in the rushing game, while the pass game has been far less explosive this season. These guys can exploit Oregon’s sometimes-sketchy run defense.
I also have some concerns about Texas Tech’s red-zone offense. The Raiders have settled far too often down there, for 32 red-zone field goals, to be exact. Oregon’s defensive front can cause issues for Texas Tech once the field is condensed.
I think this game will trend under, especially early.
Pick: 1H Under 24.5 or Better
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Alabama vs Indiana Pick
By Joshua Nunn
I have some serious concerns about Alabama’s ability to run the ball against Indiana’s front.
Alabama can’t run the ball, as it's been held under 120 rush yards in 10 games this season. Meanwhile, Indiana’s stout front has allowed just 77 rushing yards per game on 2.9 yards per carry.
Ty Simpson will have to put the Tide on his back, and that could go sideways quickly.
Alabama’s pass protection is sketchy, while Indiana has amassed 39 sacks and 114 tackles-for-loss. Additionally, the Hoosiers have allowed only seven passing touchdowns this season to 17 interceptions.
I simply don’t think Alabama will be able to convert on third downs or in the red zone. Indiana has an elite red-zone defense that’s allowed just six touchdowns on 22 trips — only one team has scored multiple red-zone touchdowns against the Hoosiers.
If you’re betting the Tide, you’re paying a tax because of their pedigree and brand recognition. But the Hoosiers have what it takes in the trenches to win the game and cover the number.
Pick: Indiana -7 or Better
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Alabama vs Indiana Team Total Pick
By RoadToCFB
I don’t know how Alabama’s offensive line holds up against Indiana’s front.
Ty Simpson has been the most-pressured and most-sacked quarterback in the Playoff field (156 pressures, 30 sacks). Over the past three games, Simpson has been pressured 48 times and sacked 10 times.
The lone team to exceed 20.5 points against Indiana this season was Penn State. That was done with a healthy dose of off-tackle runs and getting the ball to running back Nicholas Singleton on the perimeter.
Despite running back Jam Miller returning to the lineup, the Tide were unable to rush the ball against Oklahoma, finishing with just 28 yards. Against Georgia in the SEC Championship Game, Alabama finished with -3 yards.
Without the threat of a rushing attack, Indiana can pin its ears back and attack Simpson and Alabama’s vulnerable offensive line.
We’ve seen what happens in the Playoff when a defensive front overwhelms an offensive line – see last year’s runs by Ohio State and Notre Dame.
Four players up front have at least six sacks: Rolijah Hardy, Mario Landino, Isaiah Jones, and Tyrique Tucker.
Indiana also counters the pass with two second-team All-Americans at defensive back, D’Angelo Ponds and Louis Moore.
This year, Indiana’s defense has been as good as any. It hasn’t allowed more than two touchdowns to a single team beyond Penn State. Oregon scored 20 at home, but one of those touchdowns came as a result of a pick-six.
The Hoosiers allow a quality drive on under 27% of opposing possessions, and their 1.48 points allowed on those drives is best in the nation.
Meanwhile, Alabama’s 2.64 points per drive ranks 35th.
Pick: Alabama TT Under 19.5 or Better
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Ole Miss vs Georgia Pick
Georgia took Ole Miss's best shot during the Week 8 game in Athens. The Rebels scored a touchdown on their first five offensive possessions, leaving Georgia's defensive staff searching for adjustments.
The Bulldogs caught a second wind on both sides of the ball and dominated the fourth quarter, 17-0, to seal the victory — Ole Miss's final three possessions of the game ended in two punts and a turnover on downs.
The biggest question is if the dynamics have changed with either team since Georgia's Week 8 victory.
Although Ole Miss didn't see a drop offensively with Lane Kiffin no longer on the sidelines, there's reason to think Georgia's defense will be better this time around.
Not only are the Bulldogs generating more pressure on the quarterback, but the defense is the standard for tackling analytics. Georgia ranks first among all defenses in PFF tackling, with Sports Info Solutions placing the Bulldogs as the 18th-best unit in terms of broken tackles allowed.
Despite elusive running from Trinidad Chambliss and Kewan Lacy all season, Georgia missed just eight tackles in the Week 8 victory over the Rebels.
Conversely, there may be no answers for Pete Golding's defense to stop Georgia's run game. Even as Ole Miss keyed in on UGA's rushing attack, Gunner Stockton found a way to connect with tight end Lawson Luckie for three passing touchdowns.
Action Network's Betting Power Ratings call for a six-point win by Georgia, in line with the current market leading up to the Sugar Bowl.
There's an expectation that Ole Miss will come out firing, taking advantage of a Bulldogs team that has struggled in the scripted portion of games. Look to catch Georgia live on the moneyline or get a National Championship future down.
Ole Miss will struggle for four quarters to keep an elite red-zone rushing team out of the end zone. Georgia should advance to face the winner of Ohio State and Miami.
Pick: Georgia Team Total Over 30.5 or Better
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Stuckey's Full Action App Betting Card
Need more picks for Saturday's action? It's always wise to see what our guy Stuckey is betting on!
Additionally, if you haven't already, make sure you download the Action Network App to track all your bets and follow all your favorite experts.
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