As Saturday approaches, sportsbooks begin to offer an expansive menu of exotics to college football gamblers.
After digging through nearly 1,000 speciality markets spread across 60+ games, here are three that stood out to me.
Here's my college football props and exotics for Week 4, including matchups like Memphis vs. Arkansas and Tennessee vs. UAB.
Tennessee to Score 60 or More Against UAB (+210)
Saturday, 12:45 p.m. ET, SEC Network
All the ingredients are here for the Vols to boat-race Trent Dilfer’s UAB Blazers. The Blazers have been a sieve defensively, allowing 42 points to FCS Alabama State and 28 points to Akron, which started its season with eight quarters of scoreless football.
The UAB secondary is problematic, to put it lightly. The Blazers rank 122nd in coverage for PFF and last in pass defense Success Rate. And here comes the reborn Tennessee passing attack that looks like the unit once led by Hendon Hooker and Jalin Hyatt.
With Joey Aguilar spinning it and Chris Brazzell II “Mossing” undersized corners, this offense finally has the big-play pop it lacked last season.
Against Georgia, Brazzell caught six passes for 177 yards and three touchdowns. The Vols’ Veer n’ Shoot offense creates blown coverages via play-action, but UAB is happy to provide that on any play. The Blazers gave up a 75-yard touchdown pass on their first defensive snap last week to the Zips.
The final piece here is Josh Heupel’s track record in blowouts. In four and a half seasons as Tennessee's head coach, he’s run it up to 60+ six times.
In the non-BCS era, where coaches no longer need to impress the computers with gaudy margins of victory, keeping your foot on the accelerator in the way Heupel does is fairly rare.
But I have faith that, given the opportunity, he’ll be out for blood after that gut-wrenching loss to Georgia.
Anything north of +200 is a play here.
Utah & Texas Tech to Each Punt on Their Opening Drives (+409)
Saturday, 12 p.m. ET, FOX
Who’s ready for a sleepy start at altitude? A local 10 a.m. kick off in Salt Lake City has all the makings of a slow start for the Utes and Red Raiders.
Both of these teams have scored on all three of their opening drives this season, but there’s a major caveat coming.
Utah has played the corpse of UCLA, Cal Poly and Wyoming. Texas Tech did the Utes one better in the paycheck game department by dismantling Arkansas-Pine Bluff, Kent State and Oregon State.
The shock of lining up across from a real, living, breathing defense for the first time this season can’t be overstated.
Utah remains a run-centric team (24th in Run Play %), and Texas Tech’s strength is its front seven. The NIL-bolstered Texas Tech front seven has provided a sizable return on investment for the Matador Club.
The Red Raiders' run defense ranks first, per PFF, and third in tackling. Toss in a top 10 coverage grade, and it’s unlikely a broken play will sink this bet.
Utah has been far less impressive defensively, but I have unwavering faith in Morgan Scalley, Utah’s defensive coordinator and head coach-in-waiting.
Given the Utes' last two opponents, I’m certain Scalley has been burning the midnight oil for weeks preparing for Tech’s quarterback Behren Morton.
Speaking of Morton, he displays a howitzer for an arm at home and nothing more than a pop-gun on the road. In the past year and change, his TD-to-INT ratio at home is a sterling 31:4. On the road, that ratio plummets back down to earth (7:5), as does his completion percentage from 66.6% to 60%.
I’ll place my faith in Texas Tech’s front seven and Scalley’s playcalling to get a punt-punt start to this one.
Arkansas-Memphis to Score 80 Points or More (+540)
Saturday, 12 p.m. ET, ABC
Hitting 80 points in a college football game is no easy feat. A single empty red zone possession or methodical drive can kill an alternate over like this in an instant.
Despite an obscene amount of yardage last week between Ole Miss and Arkansas (1,001), the total still landed south of 80, with a final score of 41-35 favoring the Rebels. A pair of red zone field goals from Ole Miss and two missed field goals by Arkansas’ Scott Starzyk kept that number under 80.
But the potential for even more points this weekend exists for a handful of reasons.
Let’s start with the Arkansas offense, which is cooking. The Hogs' offensive line has exceeded expectations early on, ranking inside the top 20 in line yards, stuff rate allowed and pass blocking.
Quarterback Taylen Green leads the nation in total yards (1,173), is second in QBR and has put the fear of God into opposing coaches.
Memphis’ head coach Ryan Silverfield said this week after watching Green’s tape, "That's a Heisman candidate quarterback."
Explosive playmakers like wide receiver O'Mega Blake and running back Mike Washington Jr. surround Green.
Now the Memphis defense has impressive stats through three weeks, but the Tigers have yet to play a challenging opponents. And under the hood, one stat stands out: tackling. The Tigers rank 134th in tackling, which could turn short Arkansas gains into long touchdowns.
Like Arkansas, Memphis’ offensive line has been really impressive this season. Despite replacing three full-time starters up front, the Tigers rank fifth in line yards and ninth in stuff rate avoidance.
Sutton Smith has looked fantastic on the ground, and it’s likely that Greg Desrosiers Jr. gets added back into the mix after missing the last two games with a lower leg injury.
With opposing defenses focused on stopping the Memphis run game, Brendon Lewis has been precise through the air. The journeyman’s Adjusted Completion Percentage is an otherworldly 85.9%. No quarterback in the country has a higher ADJ%.
Arkansas will struggle to stop the run (118th in Rush Success) and should be victimized by big plays (132nd). Ole Miss’ receivers averaged 16.2 yards per reception, and that was with a backup quarterback who last played at the Division II level.
Both of these teams could score 40+, which makes this exotic market too enticing to pass up at any number north of +500.
