The No. 6 Ole Miss Rebels (11-1, 7-1 SEC) take on the No. 11 Tulane Green Wave (11-2, 7-1 American) in the first round of the College Football Playoff on Saturday, Dec. 20, at 2:30 p.m. ET on TNT.
These 2 teams met earlier in the season in Vaught-Hemingway Stadium — the same location as this game — where Ole Miss ran away with a 45-10 win.
With Ole Miss entering as a -17.5 favorite, will we see more of the same? Or will the Green Wave find a way to show that a Group of 5 team can bounce back against college football's upper echelon?
We polled 7 of our college football writers to get their take on the spread and over/under, so let's dive into our Ole Miss vs. Tulane picks and college football predictions for the first round of the College Football Playoff on Saturday, Dec. 20.
Spread Pick
Our Spread Pick: Ole Miss -17.5
By Joshua Nunn
The Action Network staff decidedly leans toward Ole Miss to cover this number, and I agree with the sentiment here.
This is a rematch of a Week 4 matchup that saw the Rebels dominate the Green Wave even in an SEC sandwich situation. I think we see this one play out similarly.
Ole Miss outgained Tulane by nearly 300 yards in the first meeting, and every drive other than a third-quarter punt ended inside the Tulane 40-yard line.
Tulane was unable to put pressure on quarterback Trinidad Chambliss, who carved this defense up by throwing for 307 yards and adding another 112 on the ground.
I'm not confident in the Tulane front seven generating pressure and racking up Havoc plays in this one. Ole Miss averaged 5.8 yards per carry and found a ton of explosive chunk plays both on the ground and through the air in the prior meeting.
Chambliss is a dangerous dual-threat runner, and he has shown poise in the pocket and on the move.
Tulane's defense ranks 103rd in Success Rate allowed and 94th in passing explosiveness allowed. I expect Ole Miss to move the ball consistently and finish drives in the end zone. Scoring won't be an issue for Ole Miss when it comes to covering this number.
The Ole Miss defense really put the clamps on Tulane in the first meeting. Green Wave quarterback Jake Retzleff completed just 5-of-17 passes for 56 yards as Tulane struggled to consistently move the ball in the first meeting.
The Green Wave had just two explosive plays in the first matchup, and I don't think we'll see a big improvement here. Tulane isn't built to throw its way out of trouble, and without hitting on deep shots, this offense is really going to be up against it.
Remember, in the first matchup, the lone Tulane touchdown was scored with three minutes left in a six-touchdown blowout with Ole Miss backups in on defense.
The Rebels will replicate the success they had in the first meeting, and their defense will be a big driver in the way this game plays out. Don’t overthink this one — we've already seen the script play out between these two.
Over/Under Pick
Over 57.5 | 3 Picks |
Pass | 2 Picks |
Under 57.5 | 2 Picks |
Our Over/Under Pick: Over 57.5
By Road to CFB
This point total proves to be a divisive one among the Action Network staff, as our voters are nearly split evenly across our three options.
More uncertainty lies in this matchup than in any other playoff game with both coaching staffs turning over at the end of the season.
Tulane keeps its intact for this game, while Ole Miss operates under new head coach Pete Golding and most of the offensive support staff.
It must be noted, though, that Tulane head coach Jon Sumrall is balancing preparing this team for the CFP while also piecing together a staff and transfer/recruiting class for Florida in Gainesville.
Sumrall has been extremely vocal about his desire to leave Tulane set for years after his departure, so you’re getting effort from him here. But split attention is still a concern.
Our staff sides heavily with Ole Miss in this matchup, not because we think a Group of Five team doesn’t belong here, but rather because Tulane simply wasn’t the best Group of Five team for this spot.
In aggregate power ratings from multiple industry sources, the Green Wave rank seventh among G5 teams this year.
Outside of quarterback Jake Retzlaff, Tulane is limited in its options. No back has more than 500 yards on the season, and Retzlaff’s 404 touches this year ranks 13th among FBS quarterbacks.
Against Ole Miss in Week 4, Retzlaff completed just five of his 17 passes for 56 yards.
If this total goes under, it’s likely from a lack of points from the Green Wave. They managed just 10 points in Oxford the first time around, while Ole Miss dropped 22 in the final frame to make things ugly.
An over here likely means a more competitive game. However, you do always have the potential for Ole Miss to cover most of the total itself.
In CFP blowouts last year (greater than a 13-point finish), winners accounted for 36.3 points per game. Pair that with 45 points the last time out, and you could see how the total goes over thanks to the Rebels running away with things.
Team Total Pick
Tulane Team Total Under 20.5
By Joshua Nunn
Tulane has benefited all season from turnover fortune, which has routinely set its offense up with favorable situations. When the Green Wave aren't forcing fluky turnovers, their offense struggles to generate momentum and consistently put drives together.
The Green Wave aren't equipped with playmakers who will win one-on-one battles on the outside, and I have serious concerns about the offensive line holding up against Ole Miss' defensive front.
Retzleff isn't a strong enough passer to stand in the pocket with pressure in his face and make throws to extend drives. If that remains true in this one, Tulane won't have enough opportunities to cash in and put points on the board.
A real problem for the Green Wave has been their offensive red-zone efficiency.
Tulane has scored 31 touchdowns on 55 red-zone possessions and has had to settle for field goals 18 times this season. We saw this play out in the first meeting, where the Green Wave converted only one of their three red-zone trips into touchdowns.
Tulane had three points in the first meeting before a garbage-time touchdown with three minutes left in the fourth quarter. I think it struggles to get going offensively once again in this matchup.
Ole Miss vs. Tulane Odds
| Ole Miss Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-17.5 -110 | 57.5 -110o / -110u | -170 |
| Tulane Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+17.5 -110 | 57.5 -110o / -110u | +140 |
- Ole Miss vs. Tulane Spread: Ole Miss -17.5, Tulane +17.5
- Ole Miss vs. Tulane Total: 57.5
- Ole Miss vs. Tulane Moneyline: Ole Miss -1000, Tulane +625
