The 2025-26 College Football Playoff rolls on with a matchup between the No. 12 James Madison Dukes and No. 5 Oregon Ducks on Saturday, Dec. 20.
This game features the largest spread of any College Football Playoff game this weekend, with Oregon coming in as a -21 favorite over JMU.
But where does the value lie? Three of our experts from the "Big Bets on Campus" are aligned on a side, but it may not be the one many national pundits would like.
Let's take a look at our College Football Playoff picks and NCAAF predictions for James Madison vs. Oregon in the first round of the CFP below.
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James Madison vs Oregon Odds
| James Madison Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+21 -115 | 46.5 -110o / -110u | +1000 |
| Oregon Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-21 -105 | 46.5 -110o / -110u | -2000 |
Mike Calabrese's Pick: James Madison +21
I think this is pretty simple take when you break down Oregon’s season against the spread, as it went 8-4 against the closing number.
In the eight games it covered, it averaged 237.5 rushing yards per game at 6.1 yards a carry. In the four it didn’t cover, that fell to about 180 rushing yards per game, and its yards-per-carry mark dipped a full yard.
So, the obvious matchup to watch is James Madison’s run defense. The Dukes have been ridiculous on the ground, allowing less than 8 feet per carry (roughly 2.7 yards) and just 76.2 rushing yards per game.
If they can force Oregon off its bread-and-butter, you’ve immediately taken away the Ducks’ identity. JMU’s trenches are legit with blue-chip kids and a tough front.
However, context matters here. Louisville was top-15 in Rushing Success Rate and still got held under 4.0 yards per carry when Isaac Brown was healthy for the Cardinals. JMU’s defense proved it shows up in the big spots.
And don’t sleep on head coach Bob Chesney’s track record punching up.
Go back to his Holy Cross days, and look at the Power 4 teams JMU’s faced.
Across six such games in the last four years, he’s 5-1 against the spread. The only non-cover was against South Dakota State — the FCS national champion — in a spot where JMU was getting 16-17 points and lost by 21 in a game that was closer than the final suggests.
This staff gets its guys ready for the big moments.
Pace and gameflow also favor the Dukes keeping this close. JMU finished 122nd in seconds between plays but third in time of possession. James Madison likes to shrink the game, grind drives and let its defense dictate everything.
If the Dukes slow it down, hang onto the ball and force a few punts, that +21 number starts to look rich.
A few more nuggets: Chesney has gone 47-11 straight up in his last 58 games, and those 11 losses came by an average of only 8.3 points. He doesn’t get blown out often.
This is also James Madison’s Super Bowl. I expect maximum effort with a ton of fans traveling to the Pacific Northwest and a coach who knows how to game-plan for bigger opponents.
Will Oregon land haymakers? Sure. It'll have a couple of chunk plays, maybe a 40-plus yarder or two.
But JMU running back Wayne Knight is a solid back, and if the Dukes can scheme to get him some lanes and keep drives alive, they’re going to be competitive.
Also expect some wrinkles. JMU showed in the Louisville game that it'll try creative stuff. When smaller programs get this spot, they pull out the stops.
I’ll take the Dukes and the points.
Duck's Pick: James Madison +21
At +21, I like the Dukes to keep this within striking distance.
From a schematic perspective, Oregon is going to try to win with pressure up front.
It'll bring a four-man alignment that generates quick pressure. That means JMU quarterback Alonza Barnett III has to get the ball out fast on standard passing downs.
Louisville didn’t always force that in their game, but I expect Oregon’s call sheet to prioritize speed-to-throw looks. If Barnett holds it, this game tilts Oregon’s way.
That makes the run game crucial for JMU. The Dukes need counters, QB power and a little zone read — plays that grind out three yards on first down.
If JMU ends up in second-and-long or third-and-long situations, it's handing Oregon exactly what it wants. The Dukes need to win the trench battle even if they're a bit overmatched talent-wise.
Personnel might matter more than usual, too.
Quarterback Matt Sluka has played only 55 snaps the last nine weeks, but I think we could see some 31 personnel from the pistol. Maybe Barnett and Sluka share the field because they need to mix tempo and personnel to keep Oregon from teeing off.
Early creativity helps, too. James Madison's first offensive play against Louisville was a double pass to the far side that should’ve been a walk-in touchdown, but the connection was missed. It needs a play like that to quiet the crowd and establish rhythm.
Defensively, JMU doesn’t have to shut Oregon down; it just has to limit explosiveness. If the Dukes can limit big plays, they can make this a slog. The goal is to truncate possession count and play slow, not to rack up style points.
Oregon doesn’t need to put up 50-plus and run the score all the way up. It just needs to manage the clock. If JMU can hang around in the trenches and make Oregon work for everything, it has a real shot at the number.
This won’t be easy because Oregon is the better team. But given the matchup, personnel angles and a realistic game plan for the Dukes, I'll take James Madison +21.
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Collin Wilson's Pick: James Madison +21.5
I like James Madison here as well.
The availability report caught my eye. Oregon wide receivers Dakorien Moore, Gary Bryant Jr. and Evan Stewart are all listed questionable, and that changes how I see the game.
Two of those names being shaky doesn’t surprise me because two of them haven't played in a while, and Stewart hasn't played all season. That matters against a team like James Madison.
If you’re putting this on a number, I make this spread closer to Oregon -15. If the market is offering 21.5, that pushes the implied final to something like 35–7, which feels like a backdoor possibility.
The more I think about the questionable tags, the more I wonder if Oregon head coach Dan Lanning will make the game as boring and vanilla as possible.
He could sit the big-play receivers, lean on Jordon Davison and Noah Whittington, grind out a two-possession lead with the run game, then protect the lead by slowing the game to a crawl.
He doesn't need to open up the playbook with Moore, Bryant or Stewart, and he doesn't have to test the passing game against a JMU defense that can hang around and force longer drives.
I expect Lanning to minimize risk, and once the Ducks get a two-score lead, they’ll sit on it. This feels like a slow, low-scoring game that tilts toward the underdog sticking to the script.
