The No. 7 Texas A&M Aggies (11-1, 7-1 SEC) take on the No. 10 Miami Hurricanes (10-2, 6-2 ACC) in the first round of the College Football Playoff on Saturday, Dec. 20, at 12 p.m. ET on ABC.
Texas A&M, which enters as a -3.5 favorite, started the season off 11-0 before losing its first game to in-state rival Texas, 27-17, on Rivalry Week. Two weeks before that, the Aggies needed a 27-point comeback to beat South Carolina at Kyle Field, 31-30.
Miami, meanwhile, snuck into the College Football Playoff field over Notre Dame. Coming into the game as a +3.5 underdog, how will the Hurricanes respond?
We polled 8 of our college football writers to get their take on the spread and over/under, so let's dive into our Texas A&M vs. Miami picks and college football predictions for the College Football Playoff on Saturday, Dec. 20.
Spread Pick
Our Spread Pick: Texas A&M -3
By Road to CFB
The Action Network staff is fairly split on the side here, with five of our eight voters leaning toward the home favorite in Texas A&M.
Miami took a majority of the movement after opening at +5.5, but that shift onto +3 (a 17% change in expected win probability, most among college football numbers) has been challenging.
The nod in favor of the Hurricanes comes in part to Texas A&M potentially missing three key players: running back Le’Veon Moss (questionable), safety Bryce Anderson (probable) and linebacker Scooby Williams (probable). Moss and Anderson have been sidelined since Week 7, while Williams last played in Week 9.
Despite entering the game as underdogs, indicating metrics actually give the nod to the Canes. Miami ranks seventh in net available yards (Texas A&M ranks ninth), 14th in Quality Drive Rate (A&M, 31st), and ninth in possession efficiency (A&M, 17th).
But the Aggies get the nod in opponent strength, having played an SEC slate compared to an ACC slate.
A&M possesses the pieces in the secondary to keep quarterback Carson Beck and his top target, freshman Malachi Toney, in check. Beck is at his best when he’s kept clean — something Miami’s outstanding offensive line has done a great job at.
He’s been sacked just nine times all year but goes against A&M’s top-ranked defensive front that has helped generate a 10.4% sack rate, best in the nation.
The other factor that likely makes bettors (and our team) hesitant to take the points with Miami is the home factor for A&M.
Kyle Field is one of the loudest and most intimidating environments in college football. The Aggies are 58-17 outright at home since 2015 and unbeaten this year (even if the home slate has been subpar).
Notably, road teams went 0-4 both outright and against the spread in last year’s College Football Playoff.
Over/Under Pick
Over 48.5 | 2 Picks |
Pass | 1 Pick |
Under 48.5 | 5 Picks |
Our Over/Under Pick: Under 48.5
By Road to CFB
Opposed to the spread, our staff is in more agreement here, siding with the under.
Both teams field outstanding defensive lines, and both offenses have shown the tendency to fold when their quarterbacks are under duress.
In Miami’s two losses this year, Beck tossed six combined interceptions (including four against Louisville), and he was pressured 15 times (11 by the Cards).
In A&M’s loss to Texas and preceding 31-30 narrow win over South Carolina, quarterback Marcel Reed tossed four interceptions and was pressured 30 times.
When faced with ferocious pass rushes, these offenses fall out of rhythm quickly. Miami scored 21 and 20 in its two losses, while A&M managed just 17 in its loss.
It’s not a hot take to say that when teams score less, they lose, but when these teams lose, it’s because the offense never gets out of the gate.
The Hurricanes field the nation’s seventh-best defense, per opponent-adjusted FEI. Texas A&M checks in 17th.
Big games in college football frequently feature lower final point totals. Offenses typically operate more conservatively, taking what the defense gives them (see: Week 1 Ohio State vs. Texas, Miami vs. Notre Dame, and Week 14 Texas vs. Texas A&M).
Throughout his career, Beck has been a worse quarterback on the road than at home.
This year’s road opponents featured Florida State, SMU, Virginia Tech and Pitt — teams that combined for a 24-24 record. Over the last two years, five of Beck’s seven worst passer ratings came on the road.
Miami is also one of the worst rushing offenses in the country, checking at 134th in Rush EPA and 123rd in rushes over 20 yards. Without a run game to lean on, Texas A&M can pin its ears back and attack Beck.
Both teams rank outside the top 100 in seconds per play, opting for the increasingly-popular methodical pace approach. Against two stout defensive fronts, solid secondaries and at least one quarterback with shaky performances in this setting, our staff sides with the under.
Moneyline Pick
Miami ML (+140)
By Alex Hinton
After weeks of controversy, Miami nabbed the final at-large spot to get in the College Football Playoff over Notre Dame. Its reward was a trip to College Station to take on Texas A&M and “The 12th Man.”
While it will be a raucous environment, quarterback Carson Beck also started two years at Georgia, so a road SEC environment won't be a shock to him.
Beck has completed nearly 75% of his passes this season and closed the regular season with 11 touchdown passes and one interception over his final four games.
Six of Beck’s 10 interceptions came in Miami’s two losses, but he may be able to get through this one mistake-free, as Texas A&M has just three interceptions on the year.
A&M will come after Beck with a strong defensive line that ranks fourth in Havoc, led by Cashius Howell (11.5 sacks), Dayon Hayes and DJ Hicks.
However, Miami can play with anyone in the trenches on both sides of the ball, led by right tackle Francis Mauigoa and defensive ends Rueben Bain Jr. and Akheem Mesidor.
Texas A&M quarterback Marcel Reed had a fine season himself. However, he struggled at times when teams didn't blitz him. Miami defensive coordinator Corey Hetherman does like to send pressure, but Miami can get pressure with its front four, so it doesn't necessarily need to.
Additionally, SP+ essentially has these teams even, but Texas A&M didn't close the year playing its best football, needing a 27-point comeback against South Carolina and losing to rival Texas in its last two games against Power 4 opponents.
Miami is the one that is trending up, and I believe it's the better team. At +130 or better, I’ll back the Canes on the road.
Texas A&M vs. Miami Odds
| Texas A&M Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3.5 -105 | 48.5 -105o / -115u | -170 |
| Miami Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3.5 -115 | 48.5 -105o / -115u | +140 |
- Texas A&M vs. Miami Spread: Texas A&M -3.5, Miami +3.5
- Texas A&M vs. Miami Total: 48.5
- Texas A&M vs. Miami Moneyline: Texas A&M -170, Miami +140
