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College Football Playoff Best Bets: Our Staff’s Saturday Picks for Ole Miss-Tulane, Oregon-JMU, More

College Football Playoff Best Bets: Our Staff’s Saturday Picks for Ole Miss-Tulane, Oregon-JMU, More article feature image
8 min read
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Imagn Images. Pictured: Oregon Ducks TE Kenyon Sadiq (top left), JMU Dukes QB Alonza Barnett III (bottom left), Miami Hurricanes QB Carson Beck (bottom right).

This is the most exciting Saturday of the college football season.

Three College Football Playoff games spread out across 12 hours, and endless wagers you can make on each game.

We've compiled our staff's favorite wagers for each game and threw in a player prop at the end.

Read on for our College Football Playoff best bets and NCAAF Picks for Saturday, December 20.


College Football Playoff Best Bets

The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our college football betting staff is targeting from Saturday's slate of College Football Playoff games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.

GameTime (ET)Pick
Miami Hurricanes LogoTexas A&M Aggies Logo
12 p.m.
Tulane Green Wave LogoOle Miss Rebels Logo
3:30 p.m.
James Madison Dukes LogoOregon Ducks Logo
7:30 p.m.
James Madison Dukes LogoOregon Ducks Logo
7:30 p.m.
Action Logo
All Day
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAF Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game.
Playbook

Miami vs Texas A&M Best Bet

Miami Hurricanes Logo
Saturday, Dec. 20
12 p.m. ET
ABC
Texas A&M Aggies Logo
Miami +3 or Better · 1H Under 24 or Better
bet365 Logo

By Collin Wilson

This College Football Playoff game is in the Jefferson Pilot timeslot, an 11 a.m. local kick that should moderately trim the enthusiasm of A&M's 12th Man.

Along with the morning start, there's reason to think Texas A&M will start this game slowly.

The Aggies struggled in the first half at home against South Carolina in Week 12, producing just a field goal before a ferocious second-half comeback. Texas A&M struggled again out of the gate against Texas, failing to produce any score in the first quarter.

A number of variables are in play for Texas A&M, from its offensive coordinator's impending departure to re-adding Le'Veon Moss into the ground game following his injury.

The biggest concern for the Texas A&M offense might be the Miami defense, which ranks third of all FBS teams in first-half scoring. The Hurricanes have allowed an average of 4.8 points in the first half throughout the entire season.

The Texas A&M offense will dictate its shots with Mario Craver's wide receiver screens and KC Concepcion's crossing routes and hitches.

Covering the slot is paramount against Texas A&M, and Miami has searched for a slot corner since the loss of Keionte Scott against Syracuse. However, Scott is trending toward playing, according to recent injury reports.

Previously, Bryce Fitzgerald was moved off the role after two games against NC State and Virginia Tech, allowing 4-of-6 targets to be caught for 70 yards.

Outside of Scott, the deciding factor may be who defended Pitt slot receiver Raphael Williams Jr. best in Week 14.

Miami DBs vs. Pitt slot Raphael Williams Jr. from Week 14, per PFF.

All options were torched with the exception of Fitzgerald, who should pull duties with Scott against Craver and Concepcion on inside routes.

The great news for the Miami defense is a season-long above-average Success Rate against hitch and crossing routes, as the Hurricanes have created a negative EPA against both route concepts.

On the other side, don't expect the Hurricanes to have explosive plays, but a Texas A&M defense that struggles when it comes to tackling fundamentals could provide an assist.

The Aggies use a heavy amount of Cover 3 and Cover 1 with their nickel defense, with 24% of opponent passing attempts coming against man coverage.

Miami quarterback Carson Beck has dominated Cover 3 this season with a 58% Success Rate while producing an explosive play on 20% of attempts against Cover 1.

Carson Beck efficiency splits by opponent coverage, per SportSource Analytics.

Action Network's Betting Power Ratings project Texas A&M as a 2.5-point favorite, giving little value in the current market.

The Hurricane defense should stymie the Aggie offense in the first half, as Texas A&M looks to integrate a running game while shifting Craver, Concepcion and Ashton Bethel-Roman through wide receiver screens and crossers.

The Aggies should find success later in the game from the slot position, making a first-half under the initial play of the game.

Despite a lack of explosives, Miami's scoring opportunities should result in a score. The Texas A&M defense collapses when opponents get into scoring position, an area Miami has dominated with a rank of 15th in Offensive Finishing Drives.

There's a similar scenario on the other side of the ball, as the Aggies offense ranks 26th in Points Per Opportunity against a Hurricanes defense that's eighth of all FBS teams.

Check out Collin's entire Miami-Texas A&M breakdown and more bets in his full column:

College Football Playoff Picks, Predictions: Expert CFP Best Bets for Oklahoma vs Alabama, Texas A&M vs Miami Image

Pick: Miami +3 or Better · 1H Under 24 or Better



Tulane vs Ole Miss Best Bet

Tulane Green Wave Logo
Saturday, Dec. 20
3:30 p.m. ET
TNT
Ole Miss Rebels Logo
Ole Miss -17 or Better
bet365 Logo

By Stuckey

I make the Rebels 18.5 point favorites.

The strongest part of Tulane’s defense is its pass rush, but Ole Miss quarterback Trinidad Chambliss never takes sacks — he’s unpressurable.

If the Wave can’t get pressure on Chambliss, I don’t know how the secondary holds up in coverage.

Home-field advantage will be massive in this game. The crowd will be rowdy in the program’s first CFP game, especially with how the Lane Kiffin situation went.

You want to run the ball on Ole Miss, but Tulane doesn’t have much of a run game. The Wave will have to rely on Jake Retzlaff’s arm, which doesn’t bode well for them after he was benched in the first meeting between these two — he went 5-for-17 passing for 56 yards.

Pick: Ole Miss -17 or Better



James Madison vs Oregon Best Bet

James Madison Dukes Logo
Saturday, Dec. 20
7:30 p.m. ET
TNT
Oregon Ducks Logo
James Madison +21 or Better
bet365 Logo

By Mike Calabrese

The Ducks went 8-4 against the spread this season.

In their eight covers, they ran for 238 yards per game at 6.1 yards per rush. In their four ATS losses, they ran for 180 yards per game at 5.1 yards per rush.

James Madison boasts the best run defense that’s ever come from the Group of 5 level, allowing fewer than 80 rush yards per game at under three yards per carry.

The Ducks’ offensive line is monstrous, but I think the Dukes can hold up in the trenches. Louisville ranked top 15 nationally in Rush Success Rate this year behind stud back Isaac Brown, but James Madison held the Cardinals to under four yards per carry.

Bob Chesney and his staff have had success punching up. He’s coached against six Power Conference teams over the past four years, dating back to his days at Holy Cross. His teams went 5-1 ATS in those contests.

James Madison should also slow the tempo and truncate the game. The Dukes finished the regular season 122nd nationally in seconds per play and third in time of possession.

If their run defense shows up and they shorten the game, the Dukes can keep this one within three scores.

Check out Breese's exotics and parlays for the first round of the CFP:

Pick: JMU +21 or Better



James Madison vs Oregon Player Prop

James Madison Dukes Logo
Saturday, Dec. 20
7:30 p.m. ET
TNT
Oregon Ducks Logo
Kenyon Sadiq Over 3.5 Receptions
bet365 Logo

By Doug Ziefel

Lastly, we turn to the Mackey Award Winner, Kenyon Sadiq.

The nation's best tight end has a tough matchup on paper against the James Madison Dukes, but Sadiq and company will be the toughest test the Dukes have seen all season.

Sadiq is a unique talent at the tight end position and has been a problem for opposing defenses. He led the Ducks in targets, seeing 25 over the regular season's final three games.

He surpassed this total in six of 11 games this season, and the juice is worth the squeeze at this price.

Pick: Kenyon Sadiq Over 3.5 Receptions



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