The James Madison Dukes take on the Oregon Ducks in the first round of the College Football Playoff in Eugene, Oregon. Saturday's kickoff is set for 7:30 p.m. ET on TNT.
Oregon is favored by -21.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -2100. The total is set at 48.5 points.
Here’s my JMU vs. Oregon prediction and college football picks for Saturday, December 20.
JMU vs Oregon Prediction
- JMU vs. Oregon Picks: Oregon 1H -10.5 (-140) · JMU +21.5 · Alonza Barnett III Anytime TD (+210)
My Oregon vs. JMU best bets are on Oregon spread in the first half, James Madison to cover the full-game spread, and Dukes quarterback Alonza Barnett III to score a touchdown. Find the best lines available on our live NCAAF odds page.
JMU vs Oregon Odds
| JMU Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+21 -110 | 47.5 -108o / -112u | +1100 |
| Oregon Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-21 -110 | 47.5 -108o / -112u | -2100 |
- JMU vs Oregon point spread: Oregon -21 (-110), JMU +21 (-110)
- JMU vs Oregon over/under: 47.5 (-108o / -112u).
- JMU vs Oregon moneyline: JMU +1100, Oregon -2100
JMU vs Oregon College Football Playoff Preview
James Madison Dukes Betting Preview: Built on the Ground Game
James Madison’s 121st-ranked strength of schedule casts a shadow over the season-long counting statistics.
The Dukes are a rush-heavy offense, electing to run the ball on 63% of snaps, with a strong tendency toward inside zone and power concepts.
Running back Wayne Knight is one of the most elusive rushers in the country, averaging 3.8 yards after first contact while forcing 43 missed tackles.
Knight has nine rushing touchdowns on the season, fewer than his zone-read counterpart, quarterback Alonza Barnett III. The fourth-year senior has 14 rushing touchdowns along with another 21 through the air.
What James Madison lacks in quality drives (outside the top 40 nationally), the Dukes make up for in pass explosives (top 25).
Head coach Bob Chesney has maintained one staple from the Curt Cignetti era in Harrisonburg: a havoc-minded defense. The Dukes rank in the top 15 in creating chaos, thanks to a similar number of tackles for loss and pass breakups.
James Madison ranks third in contested catches, per Sports Info Solutions, led by safety Tyler Brown, who allows less than half of his targets to be caught, alongside six interceptions. The Oregon offensive tackle position must be on point, as Xavier Holmes and Sahir West have combined for 72 pressures this season.
Oregon Ducks Betting Preview: Playoff-Level Talent
Armed with new coordinators for the playoffs, head coach Dan Lanning has no worries that Eugene will provide the home-field advantage needed to host a playoff game.
Oregon battled down the stretch through numerous injuries, specifically in the wide receiver unit.
Gary Bryant Jr has not played since Week 11 against Iowa, while freshman Dakorien Moore has not fielded a target since Week 9 against Wisconsin.
Not only are the targets looking to make a return in the first round of the playoffs, but former Texas A&M wideout Evan Stewart has also been taking repetitions in practice.
The Ducks' offense ended the season as a run-based offense because of injuries, but this might be the most explosive version of an Oregon team that already ranks in the top 35 in EPA.
The nickel defense has eliminated opponents' best offensive players over the final month of the season. Washington quarterback Demond Williams Jr. was held to 27 rushing yards while posting two interceptions. In Week 13, Oregon limited Biletnikoff Award winner Makai Lemon to 34 yards on 15 targets.
The focus in hosting a playoff game will come against James Madison's rush-heavy offense. The Ducks have posted a mid-FBS grade in stopping zone-read concepts, but have shut down explosive plays.
Oregon opponents have a negative EPA on zone-read plays while generating an explosive run on just 6% of attempts.
James Madison is not a pass-heavy offense, as there are no expectations of success against a Ducks defense that is top 10 in preventing explosive plays.
JMU vs Oregon Pick, Betting Analysis
The potency of the Oregon offense is unknown leading into the playoff game.
Dakorien Moore and Gary Bryant Jr are expected back on the field as targets for quarterback Dante Moore, but the extent of their health is unknown.
With such a large point spread, there is an avenue for Dan Lanning to use power running with Jordon Davison and Noah Whittington against a James Madison defense that ranks 89th nationally in rush EPA allowed.
In a loss to Louisville during Week 2, the Dukes allowed 4.9 yards per play on the ground, while the Cardinals' offense doubled the number of plays in standard downs than passing downs.
Oregon is expected to stay on schedule, but if a pass is down, Oregon should limit the James Madison pass rush.
The Ducks lead the nation in PFF's pass-blocking grades, led by tackles Alex Harkey and Isaiah World. The two tackles have allowed just a single sack in nearly 700 pass blocking snaps this season.
James Madison will also look to stay in standard downs via the rush. Oregon has been a much better pass defense throughout the season using Quarters and Cover 1 concepts, ranking in the top 10 in opponent pass efficiency and explosives allowed.
The Dukes' hopes will come on the ground between Barnett and Knight, using inside-zone and power-run concepts. The Ducks have been elite against power concepts, with a 55% success rate, while allowing minimal explosives.
However, James Madison should be able to create some methodical drives through inside-zone concepts. The Oregon defense produced a negative play on just 1 in 20 inside-zone attempts by opponents.
The Ducks have produced elite numbers against a top-20 schedule, but opponent scoring position has been a problem this season. Oregon ranks 77th nationally in defensive finishing drives and 126th in opponent red-zone scoring. In 24 opponent red zone trips, the Ducks have allowed 18 touchdowns.
The Action Network projection makes Oregon a 14.5-point favorite, so we show value with the Dukes.
'There could be an argument that home-field advantage in the playoffs is worth more, after a short sample of four home teams all covered in 2024.
There is a large scoring discrepancy between these two teams that signals a backdoor cover in this game. Oregon is the second-highest scoring differential team in the first half this season, with a margin of +16.17 points. Conversely, James Madison ranks second nationally in the second half at +15.54.
Pick: Oregon 1H -10.5 (-140) · JMU +21.5 · Alonza Barnett III Anytime TD (+210)
