The Illinois State Redbirds play the Villanova Wildcats in the FCS Playoffs on Saturday, Dec. 20. Kickoff is set for 7:30 p.m. ET on ESPN2.
Illinois State is favored by 2 points on the spread with a moneyline of -140. Villanova, meanwhile, enters as a +2 underdog and is +120 on the moneyline to pull off the upset. The over/under sits at 52.5 total points.
Here’s my Illinois State vs Villanova prediction and college football picks for Saturday, December 20.
Illinois State vs Villanova Prediction
- Illinois State vs Villanova Pick: Under 52.5
My Illinois State vs Villanova best bet is on both teams to go under the total. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
Illinois State vs Villanova Odds
| Illinois State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2 -110 | 52.5 -110o / -110u | -140 |
| Villanova Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2 -110 | 52.5 -110o / -110u | +120 |
- Illinois State vs Villanova Spread: Illinois State -2, Villanova +2
- Illinois State vs Villanova Over/Under: 52.5 Points
- Illinois State vs Villanova Moneyline: Illinois State -140, Villanova +120
Illinois State vs Villanova FCS Playoffs Preview
Illinois State Redbirds Betting Preview: Impressive Run
Illinois State continues to impress in these 2025 FCS Playoffs.
As if a road victory over North Dakota State in the Fargo Dome after being down by 14 with three minutes to go wasn’t enough, these Redbirds flew all the way across the country to UC Davis the following week and completely dominated the Aggies.
After falling behind, 10-7, midway through the first quarter, Illinois State rattled off five of the next six touchdowns in building a 42-17 lead before garbage-time touchdowns made the final score a tad closer.
Make no mistake about it: Illinois State dominated in the trenches, and its offensive skill-position players won the 50-50 battles on the outside.
Quarterback Tommy Rittenhouse battled back from a five-interception game against the Bison to throw for 266 yards at a 73% completion clip while connecting with Daniel Sobkowicz several times on explosive chunk plays.
The ground game shredded UC Davis as well, with Victor Dawson racking up 148 rushing yards as the offensive line played one of its best games of the season.
Illinois State gave up some yards through the air. UCD quarterback Caden Pinnick threw for 402 yards, but there was a lot of yardage accumulated in garbage time, with this one already decided.
Illinois State is going to have to bring it up front if it wants to pin down a feisty Villanova offense. Can this bunch go on the road for a fourth straight week and keep the glass slipper on its foot?
Villanova Wildcats Betting Preview: Defense on the Rise
Villanova was as impressive as you could imagine with the adversity this group faced last week.
Quarterback Pat McQuaide led the Nova offense down the field only to throw a completely unnecessary interception at the goal line before Tarleton State threw a 90-yard touchdown on the first play it ran from scrimmage.
After a blocked punt on the ensuing drive, Villanova was down, 14-0, and the blowout was in full effect. Or was it?
The Wildcat defense completely stifled the Texans' prolific offense the rest of the way, as Tarleton State would only score once more in the contest.
Villanova registered four sacks of Tarleton quarterback Victor Gabalis, and the secondary consistently locked down the Texans' receivers, making it impossible for TSU to operate.
Very few teams, including Army, found a way to shut these guys down the way Nova did. Impressive, to say the least.
Illinois State vs Villanova Pick, Betting Analysis
This line has moved this week, with Illinois State flipping from a 2.5-point underdog to a favorite. The total has bounced between 52 and 53, settling at 52.5 at most shops.
I think this total is a hair too high, so I'm diving in on the under.
The strength of this Villanova group is its defense, particularly the defensive line. Nova possesses a top-10 PFF pass rush grade in the FCS ranks and has created a ton of pressure on each quarterback it has faced in the FCS Playoffs.
There's no other way around it: These guys have to show up and play good football.
Villanova completely shut down Harvard and created Havoc and turnovers in the first two games. Gang tackling, wrapping up the Illinois State running backs and getting Rittenhouse off his mark will be critical for Nova to stay in this football game.
I think the Wildcats have to win the time-of-possession battle, and we should see unique personnel packages with 2-3 tight ends and various pre-snap motion like they did against Tarleton State.
This Nova rushing attack isn't going to generate a ton of explosive runs, but these guys can move the sticks on third- and fourth-and-short.
McQuaide was also very comfortable the last couple of weeks taking underneath throws and hitting the easy completion. His 24:3 touchdown-to-interception ratio is no fluke; he's dialed in and has been playing excellent football down the stretch.
This game is going to be won or lost in the trenches.
The Villanova ball-carriers are going to find success against this Illinois State defensive front. With 2,200 combined rushing yards between Ja’briel Mace, Isaiah Ragland and David Avit (injured, may return this week), I expect the Wildcats to lean on their running game a good majority of the way.
Both of these defensive lines can frustrate opposing quarterbacks and create negative plays and throwaways, and both of these offensive lines have had trouble in pass protection.
These defensive lines should step up and make their mark on this game, creating stalled drives that result in punts and field-position battles.
As for who wins, this game appears to be a true toss-up. McQuaide and Rittenhouse are two experienced veteran quarterbacks, and the skill-position players have similar talent levels.
Villanova has a slight special teams advantage and a more explosive return game with Mace, and it's at home, where no team has lost in the FCS semis in the last 10 years. The Wildcats go to Nashville, 24-23. Go under the total.
Pick: Under 52.5 (Play to 51)
