The Tulane Green Wave take on the Ole Miss Rebels in the first round of the College Football Playoff in Oxford, Mississippi, on Saturday, Dec. 20. Kickoff is set for 3:30 p.m. ET on TNT.
Ole Miss is favored by 17.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -1000. Tulane, meanwhile, enters as a +17.5 underdog and is +650 on the moneyline to pull off the upset. The over/under sits at 56.5 total points.
Here’s my Tulane vs. Ole Miss prediction and college football picks for Saturday, December 20.
Tulane vs Ole Miss Prediction
- Tulane vs. Ole Miss Pick: Ole Miss -17.5 · Retzlaff Over 33.5 Rushing Yards
My Ole Miss vs. Tulane best bet is on the Rebels to cover the spread and Green Wave quarterback Jake Retzlaff to go over his rushing prop. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
Tulane vs Ole Miss Odds
| Tulane Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+17.5 -112 | 56.5 -112o / -108u | +650 |
| Ole Miss Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-17.5 -108 | 56.5 -112o / -108u | -1000 |
- Tulane vs Ole Miss Spread: Ole Miss -17.5, Tulane +17.5
- Tulane vs Ole Miss Over/Under: 56.5 Points
- Tulane vs Ole Miss Moneyline: Tulane +650, Ole Miss -1000
Tulane vs Ole Miss College Football Playoff Preview
Tulane Green Wave Betting Preview: Retzlaff Leads Unexpected Push
Tulane had an improbable run to the College Football Playoff, winning five consecutive games to end the season. The Green Wave entered the American Championship game as underdogs to North Texas.
The Mean Green outgained the Wave en route to 415 yards, but four turnovers assisted Tulane in field position and scoring opportunities. Quarterback Jake Retzlaff added two rushing touchdowns to a season total of 16.
Retzlaff has had a tremendous season since transferring from BYU, leading a balanced offensive attack for Tulane. Running back Javin Gordon also assists in the heavy zone read attack, forcing 28 missed tackles this season.
The rushing attack has been inconsistent this season, but Retzlaff leads a passing attack that ranks in the top 20 in Success Rate. Wideout Shazz Preston and slot Bryce Bohanon each boast a yards-per-route-run mark of over 2.3 yards.
The biggest headache for head coach Jon Sumrall has been the nickel defense. Outside of generating a top-30 pass rush, there's a lack of highlights in the season-long statistics.
Tulane sits outside the top 50 in key areas such as Havoc, opponent quality drives, explosives allowed and coverage. There are several areas where the Green Wave fall out of the top 100, including broken tackles allowed and penalties.
The Ole Miss passing attack should have success, as Tulane ranks 130th in creating a contested catch.
Ole Miss Rebels Betting Preview: Kiffin's Departure Could Fire Up Rebs
The psyche of Ole Miss players will be put to the test after completing the best season in program history. The departure of head coach Lane Kiffin after the Egg Bowl created significant turmoil, as the former coach demanded that staff board a private jet bound for Baton Rouge.
Starting center Brycen Sanders and edge Suntarine Perkins both refuted Kiffin's exiting statement. The drama with Kiffin has continued since his departure, sending cryptic tweets to quarterback Trinidad Chambliss, who's rumored to hit the portal on Jan. 2.
Detecting motivation can be tricky during bowl season, but hosting a first-ever playoff game in the wake of a coach's departure should create an amped-up Ole Miss roster.
The offense has been one of the best in the nation in terms of Passing Success Rate, Finishing Drives and methodical possessions.
Chambliss took over starting quarterback duties in Week 3, posting one of the most mistake-free profiles of any signal-caller in FBS. The Ferris State transfer has a microscopic turnover-worthy play rate of 1.8% through 365 dropbacks.
The Ole Miss offense starts with running back Kewan Lacy, who has averaged 3.3 yards after first contact on 259 attempts this season. The Missouri transfer has forced a whopping 89 missed tackles while posting 33 attempts of 10-plus yards.
Only one player has forced more missed tackles than Lacy this season (Jacksonville State's Cam Cook). Tulane's ability to stop inside zone, man blocking and power concepts will determine the outcome of this playoff game.
Defensive coordinator Pete Golding will take over as head coach in 2026, but first has to lead a playoff run with his nickel defense.
Depending on down and distance, Ole Miss pivots between a 3-3-5 and 2-4-5 with consistent struggles against the rush. The Rebels sit outside the top 100 in Defensive Line Yards but rank in the top 35 in PFF tackle grading and broken tackles allowed, which have tampered with opponent explosives.
Ole Miss has been much better in pass coverage, running one of the heaviest amounts of zone through quarters and Cover 3.
Tulane vs Ole Miss Pick, Betting Analysis
The handicap in this game starts with the Ole Miss defense's ability to stop Retzlaff. The quarterback is responsible for 16 of Tulane's 26 rushing touchdowns.
The Green Wave use a heavy amount of zone read with a two-tight end wrinkle when it comes to outside zone. Tulane has decent efficiency with these concepts, but they haven't generated enough explosives.
Ole Miss has defended the inside zone well this season with a high 65% Success Rate. However, the Rebels fall to a 39% Success Rate against outside zone.
There's no doubt that Retzlaff will attempt to get around the Rebels' edge defenders.
Retzlaff has 79 designed rushing attempts after taking out scrambles and sneaks. Of those 79 rushing attempts, 42 have come from outside zone read with nine explosive runs.
With Gordon running the ball outside the tackles on less than 30% of attempts, Retzlaff's rushing yards prop or anytime touchdown could easily cash at the window.
The Ole Miss offense will dominate the Tulane defense, similar to the Week 4 boat-race.
Chambliss took advantage of a lackluster Green Wave defense that allowed at least two first downs on 8-of-11 offensive possessions. The Rebels average 7.9 yards per play, nearly double the total posted by the Tulane offense.
Action Network's Betting Power Ratings call for Ole Miss to win the game by 17, but home-field advantage might be undervalued in the College Football Playoff.
There's plenty of player motivation to defend Vaught-Hemingway Stadium and renounce a coach who misspoke on the current roster's intentions.
Pick: Ole Miss -17.5 · Retzlaff Over 33.5 Rushing Yards
