The Miami Hurricanes take on the Texas A&M Aggies in the first round of the College Football Playoff in College Station, Texas, on Saturday, Dec. 20. Kickoff is set for 12 p.m. ET on ABC.
Texas A&M is favored by 3.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -166. Miami, meanwhile, enters as a +3.5 underdog and is +140 on the moneyline to pull off the upset. The over/under sits at 48.5 total points.
Here’s my Miami vs. Texas A&M prediction and college football picks for Saturday, December 20.
Miami vs Texas A&M Prediction
- Miami vs. Texas A&M Pick: 1H Under 24.5 · Miami +3.5 (Play to +3)
My Texas A&M vs. Miami best bets are on both teams to go under the first-half total and the Hurricanes to cover the spread. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
Miami vs Texas A&M Odds
| Miami Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3.5 -115 | 48.5 -105o / -115u | +140 |
| Texas A&M Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3.5 -105 | 48.5 -105o / -115u | -166 |
- Miami vs Texas A&M Spread: Texas A&M -3.5, Miami +3.5
- Miami vs Texas A&M Over/Under: 48.5 Points
- Miami vs Texas A&M Moneyline: Miami +140, Texas A&M -166
Miami vs Texas A&M College Football Playoff Preview
Miami Hurricanes Betting Preview: True Road Game
Miami will look to prove the College Football Playoff committee right by winning the first-ever road game in this format's history.
The Hurricanes heated up over the final month of the season after a loss to SMU, outscoring their final four opponents, 151-41.
Miami continued to be elite in scoring position, living up to a rank of 15th in Finishing Drives thanks to 18 scores in 20 red-zone attempts.
Quarterback Carson Beck leads the balanced offense, throwing only a single interception over the final four games.
Running back Mark Fletcher Jr. is the workhorse of the inside zone run concept used by the Hurricanes, as backup CharMar Brown has been the go-to back in man or gap blocking assignments from the offensive line.
Fletcher averages 3.4 yards after first contact behind a line that ranks 37th in Line Yards. Miami stays on schedule at the sixth-highest rate, but a lack of explosives has held both the rush and passing attack from quick scores.
Miami sits 134th in Rush EPA, ranking 123rd in 20-yard rushing attempts.
The lack of explosives has left the passing game in charge of creating chunk yardage. Wide receiver Malachi Toney is the player to watch from the slot, averaging 2.8 yards per route run with seven touchdowns on the season.
Slants and out routes have been the most explosive for Beck and Toney this season, putting an emphasis on A&M's coverage in the slot.
On the other side, defensive coordinator Corey Hetherman has produced one of the best defenses in years for Miami. The 4-2-5 ranks top-15 in nearly every category, including Havoc and opponent quality drives.
This is the top-ranked pass rush unit in the nation, thanks to 15 sacks from the edge players Akheem Mesidor and Rueben Bain Jr.
Texas A&M Aggies Betting Preview: Clear Strengths and Struggles
After years of stalled pro-style offenses under Jimbo Fisher, this version of Texas A&M under second-year coordinator Collin Klein can sizzle.
Quarterback Marcel Reed leads an offense that ranks third in Havoc allowed, as the Aggies don't allow offensive momentum killers.
The passing game was upgraded through the portal before the season, pulling Mario Craver from Mississippi State and KC Concepcion from NC State.
Concepcion is a first-down machine with 46 on the season, just shy of the lead for any FBS receiver. Craver ended the season at 3.4 yards per play, making him the fourth-most explosive target in college football.
The good news doesn't end with just the passing game, as star running back Le'Veon Moss is taking practice snaps after suffering an injury against Florida in Week 7.
The departure of Jay Bateman as defensive coordinator opened the door for senior assistant Lyle Hemphill to fill the role. There are no changes expected with the 3-3-5 defense, which has been a top-five Havoc unit in the country.
Taurean York, shifting from middle linebacker to outside linebacker, produced a season-high 11 tackles and assists in the season finale against Texas.
Meanwhile, edge rushers Cashius Howell and Dayon Hayes have created 70 pressures this season for a top-15 overall rank in pass rush.
The best part of the Texas A&M defense is its ability to limit big plays, ranking top-20 in opponent EPA.
The issues that have plagued the unit all season revolve around tackling and opponent red-zone scoring. PFF has moved Texas A&M inside the top 90 in tackle grading, but Sports Info Solutions puts the Aggies at 106th in broken tackles allowed.
Throughout the season, the defense allowed 86 opponent possessions to cross the 40-yard line, giving up an average of 4.4 points per trip. Texas A&M has been one of the worst red-zone defenses in FBS, ranking 131st while allowing 30-of-32 opponent attempts to end in a score.
Miami vs Texas A&M Pick, Betting Analysis
This College Football Playoff game is in the Jefferson Pilot timeslot, an 11 a.m. local kick that should moderately trim the enthusiasm of A&M's 12th Man.
Along with the morning start, there's reason to think Texas A&M will start this game slowly.
The Aggies struggled in the first half at home against South Carolina in Week 12, producing just a field goal before a ferocious second-half comeback. Texas A&M struggled again out of the gate against Texas, failing to produce any score in the first quarter.
A number of variables are in play for Texas A&M, from its offensive coordinator's impending departure to re-adding Moss into the ground game following his injury.
The biggest concern for the Texas A&M offense might be the Miami defense, which ranks third of all FBS teams in first-half scoring. The Hurricanes have allowed an average of 4.8 points in the first half throughout the entire season.
The Texas A&M offense will dictate its shots with Craver's wide receiver screens and Concepcion's crossing routes and hitches.
Covering the slot is paramount against Texas A&M, and Miami has searched for a slot corner since the loss of Keionte Scott against Syracuse. However, Scott is trending toward playing, according to recent injury reports.
Previously, Bryce Fitzgerald was moved off the role after two games against NC State and Virginia Tech, allowing 4-of-6 targets to be caught for 70 yards.
Outside of Scott, the deciding factor may be who defended Pitt slot receiver Raphael Williams Jr. best in Week 14.
All options were torched with the exception of Fitzgerald, who should pull duties with Scott against Craver and Concepcion on inside routes.
The great news for the Miami defense is a season-long above-average Success Rate against hitch and crossing routes, as the Hurricanes have created a negative EPA against both route concepts.
On the other side, don't expect the Hurricanes to have explosive plays, but a Texas A&M defense that struggles when it comes to tackling fundamentals could provide an assist.
The Aggies use a heavy amount of Cover 3 and Cover 1 with their nickel defense, with 24% of opponent passing attempts coming against man coverage.
Beck has dominated Cover 3 this season with a 58% Success Rate while producing an explosive play on 20% of attempts against Cover 1.
Action Network's Betting Power Ratings project Texas A&M as a 2.5-point favorite, giving little value in the current market.
The Hurricane defense should stymie the Aggie offense in the first half, as Texas A&M looks to integrate a running game while shifting Craver, Concepcion and Ashton Bethel-Roman through wide receiver screens and crossers.
The Aggies should find success later in the game from the slot position, making a first-half under the initial play of the game.
Despite a lack of explosives, Miami's scoring opportunities should result in a score. The Texas A&M defense collapses when opponents get into scoring position, an area Miami has dominated with a rank of 15th in Offensive Finishing Drives.
There's a similar scenario on the other side of the ball, as the Aggies offense ranks 26th in Points Per Opportunity against a Hurricanes defense that's eighth of all FBS teams.
Pick: 1H Under 24.5 · Miami +3.5 (Play to +3)
