The No. 5 Oregon Ducks (11-1, 8-1 Big Ten) host the No. 12 James Madison Dukes (12-1, 8-0 Sun Belt) in the first round of the College Football Playoff on Saturday, Dec. 20, at 7:30 p.m. ET on TNT.
Both teams have been impressive all season with 1 loss apiece.
Oregon has been dominant basically all season outside of a 30-20 loss to No. 1 overall seed Indiana in Eugene on Oct. 11. James Madison, meanwhile, has won 11 in a row after taking its lone loss against ACC foe Louisville in Week 2.
Much has been made about the Group of 5's inclusion in the College Football Playoff, and although this game features the biggest spread of the weekend, our staff thinks James Madison has a path to keeping it close.
We polled 7 of our college football writers to get their take on the spread and over/under, so let's dive into our Oregon vs. James Madison picks and college football predictions for the first round of the College Football Playoff on Saturday, Dec. 20.
Spread Pick
Our Spread Pick: James Madison +21.5
By Joshua Nunn
Our staff has voted, and the majority believes that JMU has the goods to go into Autzen Stadium and give the Ducks a game that's closer than expected. I agree with the sentiment.
James Madison has a legitimately talented defense, not just at the Group-of-Five level but on a national level.
In its Week 2 matchup with ACC foe Louisville, the Cardinals registered just five plays longer than 10 yards. Seventy percent of Louisville's rushing yards came on one play, and outside of that, the Cardinals averaged one yard per rush.
I believe the JMU front — which will receive a boost with Immanuel Bush coming back from injury — can create some Havoc and generate some pressure against this Oregon offense.
The Dukes defense is first nationally in Success Rate allowed and eighth in explosive plays allowed.
Oregon is going to have to work for everything in this game, and I expect JMU to hold up well against the run. The Dukes are allowing just 2.4 yards per carry on the ground this season, and this unit doesn't give up explosive plays very often.
The key here will be JMU's ability to be creative offensively and call the game appropriately.
The Dukes are going to operate at a slow pace, as they have all season, and we should see a run-heavy approach. JMU has a strong rushing offense, and while we haven’t seen a lot of Matthew Sluka since the Week 2 loss at Louisville, I expect some power packages for the running quarterback.
JMU has to have success on first down to avoid being behind the sticks. Getting the ground attack going with Wayne Knight and Jordan Fuller will be critical, and Oregon does rank just 37th nationally in Rushing Success Rate allowed.
I can see the Dukes truncating this game down, winning the time-of-possession battle and mucking this game up enough to stay within this massive number.
Over/Under Pick
Over 46.5 | 5 Picks |
Pass | 1 Pick |
Under 46.5 | 1 Pick |
Our Over/Under Pick: Over 46.5
By Road to CFB
Our staff here at Action Network is largely in step with the total in this game. Five of our seven voters side with the over between James Madison and Oregon.
There’s double coordinator turnover at Oregon, but both will remain with the Ducks throughout the playoff. That means Will Stein is still calling this offense after leading it to the sixth-most Points Per Drive and available yards percentage in the country.
Oregon fields a top-ranked rushing offense (fifth in yards per attempt, 5.6) behind both a great scheme and an offensive line that was a finalist for the Joe Moore Award.
This season, James Madison held opponents to the third-worst Rushing Success Rate (30.2%), worst overall Success Rate (29%) and the 10th-fewest 20-plus yard plays.
Even against Louisville, JMU’s defense held steadfast. The Cards managed just five plays longer than 10 yards and two over 20 yards (both long touchdowns). The cracks in the armor are razor-thin.
But those cracks do exist, and Oregon’s offense — which ranks third with 82 plays longer than 20 yards this year — is the unit to take advantage.
Both teams run a methodical pace, each ranking outside the top 100 in seconds per play. However, both are also exceptionally efficient.
Simply, our staff feels this total is too low for a game that features an offense as efficient and explosive as Oregon’s.
Alonza Barnett III and the Dukes also aren’t totally incapable offensively, though things have fallen apart from time to time (usually inexplicably, like the 14-7 rock fight with Georgia State).
Should things really get ugly as JMU crosses the Pacific Time Zone for the first time in program history, Oregon could encroach this point total itself.
Oregon vs. James Madison Odds
| Oregon Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-21 -105 | 46.5 -110o / -110u | -2000 |
| James Madison Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+21 -115 | 46.5 -110o / -110u | +1000 |
- Oregon vs. James Madison Spread: Oregon -21, James Madison +21
- Oregon vs. James Madison Total: 46.5
- Oregon vs. James Madison Moneyline: Oregon ML -2000, James Madison ML +1000
