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Wilson: Projecting Week 11 College Football Over/Unders

Nov 06, 2018 7:24 PM EST
Credit:

Melina Myers-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Tee Higgins

College football over/unders are released early in the week and can see heavy movement because of weather, injury or scheme. This column serves as your first look at the projected totals for Week 11’s college football matchups.

These numbers are based on a mathematical projection of yards per play, plays per game, adjusted pace and efficiency. The Action Network Power Ratings, which can be used to create point spreads, can be found here.

When the real totals are released, I’ll compare my over/unders to what oddsmakers have posted to find betting value before the odds move.

Discrepancies in weather, injuries and standard passing down/run rate are all factors when investing on a total.

Be sure to follow me on The Action Network app to get alerts whenever I make a pick off these numbers.


College Football Week 11 Over/Under Projections

Notes on Pace, Injury, and Weather

Kansas at Kansas State

Projected Total: 47

There isn’t much precipitation in the forecast for Saturday, but the Midwest will take the brunt of freezing temperatures and gusty winds. Manhattan will have winds of at least 20 mph with potential gusts up to 30 mph.

Kansas State ranks in the top 25 in standard and passing downs run rate, adding further value to the under. On the other side of the field, Kansas coach David Beaty has been given his walking papers.

With an adjusted pace of 89th in the country, do not expect this game to have a high number of plays. Both teams rank outside the top 80 in special teams S&P+, further adding value to the under.

Texas at Texas Tech

Projected Total: 61

Texas Tech should be led by quarterback Jett Duffey, who is comfortable running the ball but not airing it out. That’s a stark contrast from injured quarterback Alan Bowman. Duffey has 47 rushes at 6.8 yards per carry, and has no problem leaving the pocket and incurring more time spent on the clock.

Bowman is still hospitalized with a punctured lung that’s caused problems for several weeks. The freshman is not expected to be back anytime soon.

Clemson at Boston College

Projected Total: 63.5

Clemson has scored 63, 41, 59 and 77 points in its past four games, so the handicap on the total should be about Boston College and its ability to contribute points.

Clemson’s biggest weakness in the advanced stats is a defensive ranking of 23rd against explosiveness in passing downs. Boston College is 11th in passing explosiveness, but the Eagles can really only go as far as star back AJ Dillon can run the ball.

Clemson ranks first in the nation in rushing defense S&P+, specifically top three against opportunity and stuff rate.

The better investment in this game may be a Clemson team total over.

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